College Football Week 4 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
This is what I get for picking favorites.
I strayed from my normal approach as an underdog bettor in Week 3, laying points in all the wrong places and stumbling to a 5-11 record against the spread.
Per the lines I collect each Monday from Odds Shark, eight of 11 road underdogs in ranked games covered, which means just three of 11 home favorites covered. But of course those three winning home favorites (Georgia, LSU and Oklahoma State) were all in rare games in which I actually backed the dog. Altogether, I finished 2-10 in games with home favorites and 3-1 in games with home underdogs.
It's the worst week I've had since I started writing this column.
But whatever. The past is the past. I'm now two games under .500, but the season is young, and the data I've collected is gestating. The more games we see, the more numbers I plug into my spreadsheet, the stronger my picks should become.
As always, feel free to chime in below with your opinion or with questions about the picks. I'll explain my rationale beneath each game, but of course we can always dive deeper. Just remember to keep it civil and that no one here hates your team.
The line is our only enemy.
No. 21 Stanford at Oregon State
1 of 11
The Line: Stanford (-15.5)
It's a prime letdown spot for Stanford, which travels to Corvallis (where weird things happen) on a weeknight (when weird things happen) after beating USC in Los Angeles and before hosting Arizona and UCLA.
Regardless, it's hard to back the Beavers after watching their offense sputter at Michigan two weeks ago. Gary Andersen's team started fast against the Wolverines, but after marching 79 yards for a touchdown on its first drive, it gained 59 yards and scored zero points over the final 58 minutes.
True freshman quarterback Seth Collins is delirious fun to watch but has a mountain of development ahead of him. I am still not very high on Stanford—even after its impressive 10-point win at USC—but Oregon State is even lower on my list.
I guess I'm laying chalk with Kevin Hogan?
The Pick: Stanford (-15.5)
No. 20 Georgia Tech at Duke
2 of 11
The Line: Duke (+10)
For the second consecutive year, Duke plays Georgia Tech right after its (Duke's) first loss.
Last year it upset the No. 22 Yellow Jackets in Atlanta, and this year it's catching 10 points against the No. 20 Yellow Jackets in Durham.
Notre Dame exposed Georgia Tech as slightly worse than it was last season, and the Blue Devils have experience defending the triple-option. Their offense did nothing against Northwestern last week, but based on what Northwestern did to Stanford, and then what Stanford did to USC, that might say more about the Wildcats than Duke.
As for trends, Duke is 9-3 against the spread as an underdog and 12-5 against the spread in conference games since 2013. Georgia Tech has been strong as a favorite over that same span, but it's 4-4 against the spread after a loss, while Duke is 4-2.
Georgia Tech quarterback Justin Thomas was benched against the Blue Devils last season after throwing a pair of costly interceptions. It was the third-lowest adjusted quarterback rating of his career behind the 2014 regular-season finale at Georgia and last week's game at Notre Dame, per ESPN.com. Duke's defense is for real and can ugly up this game to force a cover.
The Pick: Duke (+10)
No. 22 BYU at Michigan
3 of 11
The Line: Michigan (-5.5)
BYU opens the season with its fourth straight quality opponent. After beating Nebraska and Boise State in games that could have gone either way, its luck ran out in a close loss at UCLA.
Do the Cougars stand to benefit from playing so many quality teams? Or will they tire before they head to The Big House, where Michigan, fresh off a 35-7 win over Oregon State and a 28-7 win over UNLV, awaits its second opponent from the Beehive State?
I'm not sure how to answer that, so instead I'll defer to the numbers. The FEI projections have BYU winning 24-22, and although that margin might shrink or tilt to Michigan in the F/+ projections, which incorporate a system (the S&P+ ratings) that ranks the Wolverines ahead of BYU, it's still a nice sign for Bronco Mendenhall's team.
The margin between the FEI projections (BYU by two) and the spread (Michigan by 5.5) creates a 7.5-point disparity for the Cougars. Road underdogs with a disparity between four points and 8.5 points have gone 16-3-1 against the spread so far this season.
Example: Pittsburgh was a 5.5-point underdog at Iowa last weekend, but the FEI projections had Pitt winning by one. That means the Panthers had a 6.5-point disparity. Iowa won the game on a last-second field goal, but Pitt scored a satisfying cover.
That's about what I see from this game: I'm not sure which team wins, but I expect it will come down to the end.
In that case, give me the points.
The Pick: BYU (+5.5)
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 24 Oklahoma State at Texas
4 of 11
The Line: Oklahoma State (-3)
Oklahoma State found its bearings in Week 3, recovering from a sluggish pair of wins over Central Michigan and Central Arkansas by beating UTSA 69-14.
Texas also played its best game of the season last weekend, albeit in a tight home loss to Cal. Freshman quarterback Jerrod Heard looked like a mini-Vince Young against the Golden Bears, posting 527 yards from scrimmage (364 passing, 163 rushing) and three touchdowns in his first career start.
That's ultimately what makes me lean Texas. Tyrone Swoopes beat the Cowboys in Stillwater last season, and Heard is already 10 times more dangerous. He's also imbued the fanbase with hope for the first time in what feels like forever, which should lead to a strong home-field advantage in a game with a late afternoon kickoff.
"It was exciting to feel our fans," head coach Charlie Strong said of the Cal game, per quotes released by the school. "That's what it's all about, this is their football team. We need them just as much as they need us. We probably need them more than they need us."
A slightly less miserable stadium isn't enough to make me back the Longhorns, but it's the best I can find in a game I struggled to pick. I'm also just not sold on Oklahoma State as a Top 25 team. It's hard to erase that Central Arkansas game from my head.
The Pick: Texas (+3)
No. 3 TCU at Texas Tech
5 of 11
The Line: TCU (-8.5)
So let's have a talk about the TCU defense.
SMU gained 508 yards and averaged 6.43 yards per play last week, which could easily be ignored as a fluke or as a sign of Chad Morris' genius if not for the creeping sense of inevitability.
Here's what TCU lost from last season: two All-Big 12 first-teamers (linebacker Paul Dawson, safety Chris Hackett), three All-Big 12 second-teamers (defensive tackle Chucky Hunter, cornerback Kevin White, safety Sam Carter), another 100-tackle linebacker (Marcus Mallet) and an 11-year defensive coordinator (Dick Bumpas).
Here's who returned but will not definitely play Saturday: cornerback Ranthony Texada (knee, out for season), safety Kenny Iloka (knee, out indefinitely), linebackers Sammy Douglas (knee, out for season) and Mike Freeze (personal absence), and defensive ends Mike Tuaua (suspension, out indefinitely) and James McFarland (foot, out indefinitely).
Here's who returned and may or may not play Saturday: defensive end Terrell Lathan (shoulder) and defensive tackle Davion Pierson (undisclosed), a pair of projected starters who have missed the first three weeks of the season.
How many more names can I list? Other than safety Derrick Kindred, there are no surefire contributors back from last year. It showed against SMU last weekend, and it should show even more in Week 4.
Yes, the Horned Frogs hung 82 points on Texas Tech last season. And yes, they should still win this game. It's just tough to lay 8.5 points on the road against a team with an explosive offense when your defense has such glaring, serious issues.
The Pick: Texas Tech (+8.5)
Vanderbilt at No. 3 Ole Miss
6 of 11
The Line: Vanderbilt (-24.5)
Vanderbilt has gotten better, but let's not pretend it's gotten good.
The Commodores are leaving Nashville for the first time this season and returning to the state of their last road trip, where they lost 51-0 last November at Mississippi State. Earlier in the season, they lost 41-3 at home against Ole Miss.
Neither of those results tells the full story, and to be honest I don't feel great about this pick. Ole Miss is coming off a historic win at Alabama and has a road trip to Florida looming, so this is fertile ground for a letdown. Plus teams often struggle after playing the Crimson Tide, whose physical brand leaves them sore.
However, Ole Miss played a different type of game against Alabama, one that involved finding space instead of ramming into the line. This team looks healthy and focused, and I liked how its offense handled business as a favorite in Weeks 1 and 2.
The Pick: Ole Miss (-24.5)
No. 14 Texas A&M at Arkansas
7 of 11
The Line: Texas A&M (-7.5)
Arkansas is on a two-game outright losing streak, a two-game against-the-spread losing streak, and it now catches 7.5 points on a neutral field with 78 percent of spread bets going against it.
My contrarian senses are tingling.
The Razorbacks have issues but are not as bad as they've shown the past two weeks; they still rank No. 26 on Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings, while the Aggies rank No. 18.
A&M has looked improved along the defensive line but has still not seen a running game like that of Arkansas. Are we sure the Aggies can hold their own in the trenches?
Even if they can, Arkansas' defense should be enough to keep this close. The Razorbacks played former A&M offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury in Week 3, so the tape they study this week should be extra useful.
But really this has more to do with contrarian handicapping than anything. I'm picking Arkansas because no one else wants to.
The Pick: Arkansas (+7.5)
No. 25 Missouri at Kentucky
8 of 11
The Line: Kentucky (-3)
Let me get this straight.
Kentucky is laying three points against a team that, while struggling, is technically still ranked? Even though the Wildcats' last win over a ranked opponent came in 2010? Even though that was 16 tries ago? Even though they're drained after an emotional game against Florida in which their offense laid an egg and scored no touchdowns?
OK. Yeah. Got it.
I know how bad Mizzou looked against UConn—the Tigers also scored single digits in Week 3 and barely won at home—but I'll always take Gary Pinkel and a roster full of players who have won two straight SEC East titles (even if most watched from the sideline) over Mark Stoops and a roster full of players who have yet to win squat.
With a current over/under of 44 points, this game also satisfies one of my favorite betting systems: road underdogs in games with totals under 48.5. Teams that fit that criteria went 681-562 against the spread between 2005 and 2014, per Sports Insights.
The Pick: Missouri (+3)
No. 9 UCLA at No. 16 Arizona
9 of 11
The Line: UCLA (-3.5)
Arizona linebacker Scooby Wright is questionable after tearing his lateral meniscus in Week 1 and missing the past two games.
"The trainers feel optimistic," head coach Rich Rodriguez said Monday, per Ginger Poulson of ArizonaSports.com. "I think Scooby is optimistic. I think everything is healed from that standpoint, but does he have his strength back? Is he able to be the old Scooby? We’ll find out this week."
Wright led the country in just about every defensive stat last season, and his best game might have come against UCLA. He posted 19 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and three sacks in a 17-7 loss to the Bruins, dominating in ways only Scooby is capable of dominating.
But is it asking too much of him to come back so soon from a knee procedure? Even if he plays, should we worry about fatigue and rust? And what about the Arizona offense, which, again, scored seven points in a loss last year to the Bruins?
I'll take my chances with the better all-around team, even if it means laying points with a true freshman quarterback, Josh Rosen, in his first competitive road start. Even though he struggled against BYU, I still think Rosen is special.
The Pick: UCLA (-3.5)
No. 19 USC at Arizona State
10 of 11
The Line: USC (-6)
Both teams need this win after losing their biggest early games against Texas A&M (Arizona State) and Stanford (USC).
The Sun Devils have looked funky all season, but this seems like a good spot to back them as curious six-point underdogs. They've won their past two home games over USC by a combined score of 105-63.
They also rank higher than USC on the FEI ratings and are projected by that system to win 29-24. That creates an 11-point disparity for the Sun Devils—the ninth time this season a home underdog has been picked to win outright with a disparity of more than five points.
The previous eight teams went 7-1 against the spread and 5-3 straight up, and only one (Hawaii vs. Colorado in Week 1) had a higher disparity than that of Arizona State.
The Pick: Arizona State (+6)
Other Top 25 Games
11 of 11
Central Michigan at No. 2 Michigan State (-27)
Michigan State is interesting. It's risen to No. 2 in the AP rankings despite an 0-3 record against the spread. In theory, failing to cover three straight games means it hasn't looked as good as expected, but it keeps receiving praise and national press. Are the Spartans due for a big game and cover? Or should two-score wins over Air Force and Western Michigan concern them? My gut thinks Option 1, but I would honestly rather pass.
The Pick: Michigan State (-27)
Rice at No. 5 Baylor (-34.5)
Rice outgained Texas by 185 yards despite losing in Austin two weeks ago. It's a live road underdog with the offense to cover this line against a struggling Baylor defense. However, I think those struggles are overblown and make the Bears at minus-34.5 a moderate discount. They took last week off to rest and diagnose their problems, and I expect them to revert to their usual nonconference form.
The Pick: Baylor (-34.5)
Western Michigan at No. 1 Ohio State (-31)
Ohio State's offensive struggles have not been overblown. It averaged 4.14 yards per play against Hawaii and Northern Illinois, and although it endured poor turnover luck against the Huskies, it enjoyed even greater turnover luck against the Rainbow Warriors. It's scary to take the points here, since we all know the Buckeyes can explode at any minute; but here's to riding one more week of struggles against an offense that can pull a backdoor cover.
The Pick: Western Michigan (+31)
UMass at No. 6 Notre Dame (-28)
Most books have this line at Notre Dame minus-27.5, but the Westgate, whose odds I use when available for consistency, has it at minus-28. That's a big swing up to a key number, which gives me comfort backing the underdog. Notre Dame is in the trap spot to end all trap spots, getting UMass after Georgia Tech and before a road trip to Clemson. I like fading teams that played triple-option offenses the prior weekend (those cut blocks take a toll on the legs), and as a bonus UMass looked sharp last week against Temple, losing on a last-second field goal.
The Pick: UMass (+28)
Louisiana-Monroe at No. 12 Alabama (-37.5)
Here's a rare chance to back Alabama against the public. Fifty-one percent of spread bets are on Louisiana-Monroe, which has kicked the line from minus-38 to minus-37.5. But I still don't feel comfortable taking the Crimson Tide, who have quietly always struggled to cover big nonconference lines. ULM had a bye last week while Alabama played a physical opponent, and the Crimson Tide barely beat Arkansas (14-13) right after losing to Ole Miss in 2014. For what it's worth, Georgia beat ULM by "just" 37 points in Week 1.
The Pick: Louisiana-Monroe (+37.5).
Ball State at No. 17 Northwestern (-18.5)
Ball State is coming off a nice comeback win at Eastern Michigan in which it scored the final 28 points. The Cardinals' biggest weakness is pass defense, which is why I picked (and won with) Texas A&M against them two weeks ago, but Northwestern is the wrong team to exploit that. Like BYU at Michigan, Ball State also checks in as a road dog with an FEI disparity between four and 8.5 points. Repeating an earlier point, those sides are 16-3-1 against the spread in 2015.
The Pick: Ball State (+18.5)
Hawaii at No. 22 Wisconsin (-24.5)
Man, I wish this game were in November. The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-70s, which will not throw Hawaii too far out of water. On that note, I like the Rainbow Warriors defense against an efficient but not explosive Wisconsin offense. This line opened minus-27, and 72 percent of spread bets are on the Badgers, but despite that the line has moved toward the dog. That means there is sharp money on Hawaii, a team that rarely wins but typically hangs close and covers.
The Pick: Hawaii (+24.5)
Week 3 Record: 5-11-0 (31.3 percent)
Overall Record: 25-27-1 (48.1 percent)
Note: Two ranked games are off the board for injury reasons: No. 18 Utah at No. 13 Oregon and No. 8 LSU at Syracuse. The statuses of Utah quarterback Travis Wilson, Oregon quarterback Vernon Adams and Syracuse quarterback Eric Dungey are undetermined, so the books have not posted early lines. That's why those games are absent.
Top 25 rankings refer to the Associated Press Poll. All Week 4 spreads via Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All betting percentages (which side has seen more action) via Sports Insights.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
