The Domino Effect of College Football's 1st Upset Saturday of 2015
September 19, 2015.
Scribble that date down and tuck it away. A few months from now, it’s going to mean something—something that’s difficult to define without the complete image. It’s going to funnel outrage or euphoria. It’s going to drive the chapters that follow.
On this particular Saturday, the season endured its first—and certainly not last—major shakeup as it pertains to the College Football Playoff.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Two of the nation’s top six teams fell in somewhat unexpected fashion. The first domino tumbled when No. 6 USC lost at home to Stanford—the team that mustered six whole points against Northwestern a few weeks ago.
“I thought we came out with good energy,” USC head coach Steve Sarkisian told reporters when speaking of the second half. “We just couldn't do it consistently to get it done.''
The more emphatic development came a couple hours later when No. 2 Alabama fell to No. 15 Ole Miss in a thriller for the second consecutive year. Although Nick Saban’s team made a game of it—a few times, actually—the Rebels finally closed the door on a 43-37 win.
Other favorites didn't trend particularly well during Week 3, either. As a result, there are things to discuss. There are narratives to crush (or embrace), teams to zero in on moving forward and a new protocol to follow. Let’s explore.
Yes, Ole Miss Is a National Championship Contender
This was no fluke. Let’s get that out of the way. Beating Alabama doesn’t guarantee Ole Miss will crash the College Football Playoff (see: last season), but Hugh Freeze’s latest group does a bit of everything. If things break accordingly, it can reach that next level.
Chad Kelly has been exceptional at quarterback and has no shortage of weapons. The running game, while not a strength, has been much better than it was a season ago. Against Alabama, it was good enough.
The defense, which gave up 503 yards Saturday, is still one of the elite units in the nation. That will likely be the worst game it plays all season in the most difficult environment it plays all year. Defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche is the man on the poster, but he is not alone. All that recruiting has paid off in depth, speed and talent.
Oh, and the Rebels’ best player hasn’t even played yet. Keep your eyes on the status of left tackle Laremy Tunsil. He’s working through an NCAA situation regarding his eligibility now, but if he is able to return before the team hits the stretch run, that would be an enormous boost.
The October 24 matchup against Texas A&M suddenly looms large. The schedule, especially for road trips, isn't that daunting. Look out.
No, Notre Dame Is Not Done
Lost in the carnage of the late-night hours was a magnificent performance turned in by Notre Dame against a team many assumed it wouldn't handle.
The 30-22 score doesn’t tell the appropriate tale. Although Georgia Tech found the end zone twice when the game was out of reach late, this was a dominant defensive performance from the Irish. Jaylon Smith was everywhere, and the defensive line kept quarterback Justin Thomas in check.
Offensively, Brian Kelly—down a handful of players—still has stars to work with. Wide receiver Will Fuller you know well by now, and he was brilliant once again, going over 100 yards and scoring another touchdown. But C.J. Prosise, playing in place of the injured Tarean Folston, is emerging quickly at running back. His 91-yard touchdown was the longest in Notre Dame Stadium history.
For the Irish to make it past a schedule that still includes Clemson, USC, Temple, Pitt and Stanford, quarterback DeShone Kizer will have to be better. But as is, even with so many injuries, they are still very much in the conversation.
1-Loss Teams, Have No Fear; We’ve Seen This Before
After a team loses a high-profile game—or even a low-profile one—it is almost natural to remove it from all future playoff conversations and throw it on the bottom of the pile. It’s what we do.
Heck, right around this time last year, we pronounced Ohio State and the entire Big Ten dead. Let’s not do that this year, shall we?
Look at the playoff from a season ago. Three of the four teams suffered heartbreaking, "the season is over" losses at some point. Florida State came close a handful of times. This is what happens, no matter what it looks or feels like at the time.
Don't let anyone tell you otherwise; there is room for error in this new postseason system.
Alabama is by no means a perfect team, and this loss certainly throws a wrench in things. USC will be scratching its head wondering how this game got away from it. Oregon, still dealing with its loss from a week ago, is still going to be a factor in this, too.
The losses are only getting started. Undefeated teams will tumble, expectedly and unexpectedly. Oftentimes, when you’re immersed in the weekly madness, the season feels short.
The reality, however, is this is a marathon. Things will happen, and weekly developments will shift the panic and overreaction one way or another.
Having anything but a zero in the loss column is disappointing before October. But don’t look into this too deeply. There is still so much work to be done, and nothing about the early part of the season feels stable.
On that note…
Is Anybody Good?
While Alabama and USC fell, the nation’s No. 1 team—the immortal Ohio State—nearly lost to Northern Illinois as almost a five-touchdown favorite, per OddsShark. The 20-13 Buckeyes win was ugly, and this isn’t just a one-game scenario. While the team's defense looks fabulous, the offense—outside of the second half against Virginia Tech—has not looked comfortable.
A feisty SMU squad pushed College Football Playoff favorite TCU to the brink in yet another shootout. And UCLA, as more than a two-touchdown favorite, nearly saw its undefeated record come undone thanks to BYU—the team that never stops chugging. Earlier in the week, Clemson nearly lost on a Thursday night at Louisville.
The next time you’re with a friend, ask him or her which squad they believe is the best in college football right now and celebrate that long pause before the answer.
The most common response will still likely be Ohio State, and the Buckeyes deserve the benefit of the doubt given last year and their returning talent. But as it stands now, there doesn’t look to be a dominant team out there. Not after Week 3, at least.
The result could ultimately be week-to-week chaos and more columns outlining the latest fallout. Or perhaps that dominant team—Ole Miss, for example—is only getting started on a magical, unexpected journey. Maybe that team is off the radar entirely.
What a lovely, unpredictable few months it will be.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
