Ed Feng's Week 4 College Football Playoff Standings Predictions
How would the College Football Playoff committee rank teams this week? Which four schools would make the playoff?
We can use analytics to make an educated guess on the committee rankings. The Associated Press poll provides a baseline for the Top 25 teams before the committee releases its first poll. My algorithm then adjusts teams based on the most recent opponent and margin of victory.
Teams that win keep their place or make a jump if they beat a higher ranked opponent. Teams that lose drop, but not as much if they lose to a highly ranked team. You get the idea.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Let's look at the three most interesting movers from Week 3.
| 1 | TCU | Won vs. SMU, 56-37 |
| 2 | Ohio State | Won vs. Northern Illinois, 20-13 |
| 3 | Michigan State | Won vs. Air Force, 35-21 |
| 4 | Baylor | BYE |
| 5 | Alabama | Lost vs. Ole Miss, 43-37 |
| 6 | Notre Dame | Won vs. Georgia Tech, 30-22 |
| 7 | Georgia | Won vs. South Carolina, 52-20 |
| 8 | Florida State | Won at Boston College, 14-0 |
| 9 | UCLA | Won vs. BYU, 24-23 |
| 10 | LSU | Won vs. Auburn, 45-21 |
| 11 | Ole Miss | Won at Alabama, 43-37 |
| 12 | Oregon | Won vs. Georgia State, 61-28 |
| 13 | Clemson | Won at Louisville, 20-17 |
| 14 | USC | Lost vs. Stanford, 41-31 |
| 15 | Oklahoma | Won vs. Tulsa, 52-38 |
| 16 | Texas A&M | Won vs. Nevada, 44-27 |
| 17 | Arizona | Won vs. Northern Arizona, 77-13 |
| 18 | Northwestern | Won at Duke, 19-10 |
| 19 | Utah | Won at Fresno State, 45-24 |
| 20 | BYU | Lost at UCLA, 24-23 |
| 21 | Georgia Tech | Lost at Notre Dame, 30-22 |
| 22 | Missouri | Won vs. Connecticut, 9-6 |
| 23 | Wisconsin | Won vs. Troy, 28-3 |
| 24 | Oklahoma State | Won vs. UTSA, 69-14 |
| 25 | West Virginia | BYE |
Ohio State Drops After Offensive Dud
Ohio State had a rough weekend as it hung on to beat Northern Illinois 20-13. The offense gained 4.5 yards per play, one fewer than the college football average of 5.5, against the MAC defense.
Cardale Jones, last year's third-string quarterback who led Ohio State to the playoff championship, threw two interceptions in the first half. Urban Meyer benched him for J.T. Barrett, who didn't fare much better as Ohio State settled for short gains in the second half.
The Buckeyes offense also had a poor showing last weekend against Hawaii, as Ohio State gained 4.4 yards per play. However, not many noticed, since Ohio State won 38-0.
The playoff committee has emphasized strength of schedule. This also includes not letting average teams stay close in games. Auburn beat Jacksonville State by seven but dropped from sixth to 18th in the AP poll. Ohio State beat Northern Illinois by the same margin. Due to the stronger opponent, Ohio State doesn't deserve the same drop as Auburn.
However, staying true to its commitment to strength of schedule, the committee drops Ohio State to second behind TCU.
Over the last six games, we've seen the best and worst of Ohio State's offense. It looked ready to challenge the Green Packers offense as it won the final three games last season. But as I noted this preseason, don't let the small sample size of three games fool you.
Ohio State's offense showed us its worst over the past two games. The unit is much better than that, but let's not reserve the Buckeyes' spot in this year's playoff just yet.
Is Ole Miss Fool's Gold?
Ole Miss scored a huge 43-37 victory over Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The Rebels jump from 15th to 11th in the rankings. However, it feels like we've heard this story before.
Ole Miss started the 2014 season by winning its first seven games. The Rebels then went on a tailspin that ended with a 42-3 loss to TCU in the Peach Bowl.
The game with Alabama had some warning signs that Ole Miss might be overrated. The Rebels had a plus-five turnover margin, and randomness plays a big role in these game-changing plays. Two fumbles put Ole Miss deep in Alabama territory, and these two drives led to 10 points.
In addition, Ole Miss caught a break when a Chad Kelly pass got tipped in the air and landed in the hands of Quincy Adeboyejo, who ran for a 66-yard touchdown.
This year might be different for Ole Miss, though. Kelly looks like an upgrade over Bo Wallace at quarterback, and the defense looks poised to keep its elite status from last season. However, three games is too small a sample to draw any firm conclusions about the Rebels, despite their win in Tuscaloosa.
LSU Rides Leonard Fournette Up the Rankings
How about Leonard Fournette? The LSU running back tortured Auburn's defense for 228 yards at 12 yards per carry and scored three touchdowns.
LSU beat Auburn 45-21, and the future looks bright for the Tigers from Baton Rouge in the SEC West. Les Miles made a BCS Championship Game with only a defense in 2011. Imagine what he could accomplish with a defense and Fournette.
LSU's large margin of victory over a ranked opponent moves it past Oregon to 10th in the rankings. The Ducks probably deserve this demotion as they allowed Georgia State to gain 431 yards on 5.7 yards per play. That's Georgia State, not Georgia.
Ed Feng has a Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering from Stanford and runs the sports analytics site The Power Rank. You can find him on Twitter, @thepowerrank.
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