Which Quarterbacks Are Most Likely to Sustain Their Breakout Campaigns?

Thank goodness for cupcake games. Without them, we wouldn't have surprising stat lines to shake up the longstanding, stale offseason storylines.

For instance: Ole Miss' running game was the biggest question mark for the Rebels heading into the 2015 season, as noted by Hugh Kellenberger of the Clarion-Ledger in August. Wouldn't you know it, but Ole Miss has the top rushing offense in the SEC through two weeks. Yes, playing Tennessee-Martin and Fresno State helps. 

Along those lines, Rebels first-year starting quarterback Chad Kelly leads the nation in passer rating (233.97) and by a sizable margin, too. USC's Cody Kessler is second in that category with a 215.27 rating, followed by West Virginia's Skyler Howard with a 207.35 rating. 

Wait—Kelly? Howard? Where's TCU's Trevone Boykin? What about Clemson's Deshaun Watson? Michigan State's Connor Cook? Ohio State's Cardale Jones? 

They're nowhere to be found near the top of the passer rating category (Watson is the closest at No. 25). The most familiar name is Kessler, who was among the most efficient passers in 2014 as well. 

As Dan Wolken of USA Today tweeted, the top passers in college football through two weeks is a list full of surprising, if not unfamiliar, names: 

To flesh out Wolken's point, here are the top 15 quarterbacks in college football as ranked by their passer rating: 

Name	School	Passer Rating	Yards	TD/INT
Chad Kelly	Ole Miss	233.97	557	6/1
Cody Kessler	USC	215.27	650	7/0
Skyler Howard	West Virginia	207.35	622	5/0
Paxton Lynch	Memphis	205.92	432	3/0
Drew Hare	Northern Illinois	203.31	718	6/0
Chris Laviano	Rutgers	202.82	342	4/1
Eric Dungey	Syracuse	197.80	335	4/0
Jared Goff	Cal	195.93	630	6/2
Malik Zaire*	Notre Dame	187.88	428	4/0
Seth Russell	Baylor	187.53	718	9/4
Jacoby Brissett	North Carolina State	183.35	412	3/0
Will Grier	Florida	182.38	317	4/1
Garrett Smith	Louisiana-Monroe	180.45	576	5/1
Tyler Jones	Texas State	178.59	378	3/0
Thomas Sirk	Duke	176.18	604	5/0

(*Zaire sustained a season-ending ankle injury last Saturday against Virginia.) 

It's an eclectic list, but one that is unlikely to stand the rigors of the season. Eventually, the best players rise to the top, and Week 3 will provide the first major test for a number of the aforementioned quarterbacks. Kelly, of course, goes on the road to face Alabama. Northern Illinois' Drew Hare will play Ohio State. Even Duke's Thomas Sirk faces a Northwestern defense that has yet to give up a touchdown. 

Which first-year or otherwise relatively unknown quarterbacks are most likely to maintain their breakout years through November and December? Here are a few who are averaging at least 20 attempts per game and 250 yards passing per game who could remain among the top 15 passers as ranked by rating through the entire season: 

Chad Kelly

Bleacher Report colleague Barrett Sallee believes Ole Miss' key to victory at Alabama is continued success in the ground game.

"If the Rebels can't run, they're toast," he writes. It's a fair and accurate statement. Offensive balance is crucial when you're going up against a defense as good as Alabama's. (Balance doesn't always mean being 50-50 with run/pass play-calling, either; rather, it's about the effectiveness and efficiency of the play-calling. In this specific instance, can Ole Miss run the ball when it needs to?) 

Ultimately, though, Ole Miss' offensive strength is in its passing game and Alabama's defensive strength is stopping the run. For context, the number of passing touchdowns Alabama's defense has allowed since 2011 has increased steadily. This year, the Tide are on pace to once again allow more touchdowns than the previous season (19). 

Thomas Graning/Associated Press

If the Rebels are going to win this game, it feels like Kelly needs to have a big performance through the air. Interestingly, Kelly's two best targets—receiver Laquon Treadwell and tight end Evan Engram—haven't been the most prolific. Both need to be heavily involved Saturday. 

Win or lose, a great game by Kelly would cement him as one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC. Outside of Mississippi State's Dak Prescott, the conference is lacking star power under center, as Sallee noted this week. 

Kelly is averaging only 20 attempts per game, but he hasn't needed to win games with his arm yet. And the passes he is throwing are being completed for chunk yardage. No other quarterback has a higher yards-per-attempt rate than Kelly (13.9). That number will come down as the season progresses, but for reference, Oregon's Marcus Mariota, last year's Heisman winner, averaged a cool 10 yards per passing attempt. 

The Rebels have the receiving talent to make plays downfield. Looking at Ole Miss' schedule, the pass defenses Kelly will face haven't exactly been stifling. And Kelly is a confident player as it is. 

"People think he's an arrogant kid, a cocky kid," said Marcus Wood, the offensive coordinator at Kelly's former stop, East Mississippi Community College, to David Ubben of Sports on Earth. "I could see where people think he's cocky. He wants the ball. He wants to take the last-second shot in basketball. He wants to go up to the plate with two outs in the ninth. People see that and think he's selfish." 

Selfish, cocky, confident—whatever you want to call it, Kelly is good enough to become the SEC's top passer in 2015. 

Skyler Howard

The Big 12 has a number of first-year starting quarterbacks looking to leapfrog Boykin as the conference's top signal-caller. But who would have guessed through two weeks that Howard would be one of the conference's top passers? After all, he was known far more for his legs than his arm. 

Ray Thompson/Associated Press

With the Mountaineers needing to replace standout wide receivers Kevin White and Mario Alford, it's easy to see why Howard got lost in the preseason Big 12 quarterback pecking order. However, West Virginia has done an underrated job producing wide receivers, and Shelton Gibson and Jovon Durante look like the next great one-two punch. Daikiel Shorts Jr. and Jordan Thompson round out what is a talented and productive wide receiver unit. 

Since there's no shortage of talent to throw to, Howard has been lighting it up through the air against lesser competition while still showing he's a threat to run. His biggest need for improvement from the end of last season to this one was accuracy. This was on display in the Liberty Bowl loss to Texas A&M, when Howard was overthrowing receivers left and right. 

In the Week 2 game against Liberty, Howard showed what he can be like at his best, as Allan Taylor of West Virginia MetroNews wrote: "And there were periods of progress on offense—from Skyler Howard making his most accurate throws yet to Skyler Howard making his longest runs yet. His 34-yard takeoff on a 3rd-and-forever scramble turned a sure punting situation into a field goal."

If Howard can keep improving on his accuracy, he becomes one of the tougher Big 12 quarterbacks to slow down. It would certainly put him in the conversation—along with Boykin, Baylor's Seth Russell, Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph and Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes—as the conference's top signal-caller. 

Seth Russell

Speaking of Russell, he's picked up pretty much where Bryce Petty left off last season for Baylor. In Petty's first season as the Bears' full-time starter in 2013, he threw for 650 yards and four touchdowns in his first two games. In two games this year, Russell has 68 more yards and five more passing touchdowns (but four picks to Petty's zero). 

Baylor hasn't gotten into the heart of Big 12 play yet, so it'll be interesting to see if Russell can keep up the production. For as stat-happy as Baylor's offense continues to be, Russell's been sloppy at times, especially in the Week 2 win over Lamar in which he had three interception and a fumble. The fact he's still considered one of the top passers in college football in spite of that means he can be that much better. 

LM Otero/Associated Press

"What I do like about Seth is he is very fearless,” head coach Art Briles told John Werner of the Waco Tribune-Herald. “And what you’ve got to weigh is the fearlessness versus intelligence. You’ve got to combine those where intelligence always rides a little higher than fearlessness. Because at the end of the day that’s what it’s all about.”

Why wouldn't Russell take shots? He has one of the best wide receivers in the conference to throw to: Corey Coleman. The junior leads the nation in receiving yards (360) and touchdowns (five). 

And that's not even mentioning sophomore receiver KD Cannon. 

Despite the mistakes, Russell is fitting into the plug-and-play narrative for which Baylor has become known. One guy leaves and the next one steps in to be just as productive. The key for Russell going forward is to be more patient with his decision-making. Three interceptions in a game may not cost the Bears against Lamar, but it will in Big 12 play. 

Thomas Sirk

Can Duke coach David Cutcliffe coach quarterbacks or can Duke coach David Cutcliffe coach quarterbacks?

With Anthony Boone moving on, Sirk has stepped into the starting quarterback role nicely. Through two games, he's thrown for more than 600 yards, and he hasn't even played the whole time. Additionally, he's proving to be a solid rushing threat with 154 yards on the ground. 

As Jared Shanker of ESPN.com wrote last week, "If he [Sirk] throws for 300 yards or rushes for 100 next week against Northwestern, it likely means a 3-0 start for Duke."

Keep in mind that Northwestern is ranked in both major polls heading into Week 3. Though the Wildcats have played an FCS opponent, they also pushed around Stanford in Week 1 and have posted one of the top defenses statistically in the Big Ten. A good showing and a win versus Northwestern would certainly start the Sirk hype machine. 

There's no shortage of quality quarterbacks in the ACC. But with Watson struggling with his accuracy against Louisville on Thursday and Florida State's Everett Golson needing to bounce back from a poor showing against South Florida, there's an opportunity for Sirk to get people talking about him. 

Considering Sirk leads the Blue Devils offense in rushing as well, a goal of 300 yards of total offense per game is more than reasonable for him this season. Last season, only Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston was able to achieve that number (305.5 yards per game). In 2013, it was Winston and Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd. That would certainly put Sirk in rare company.

He has the coaching, the skill and the supporting cast to do it, though.  

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.