San Francisco 49ers' Week 2 Stock Report
One player on the San Francisco 49ers whose stock is up after Week 1: inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman.
When he’s blitzing or stopping the run, Bowman seems as good as he was before his grisly knee injury. He finished Monday night’s game against the Minnesota Vikings with seven tackles and a sack.
But he struggled a bit in pass coverage. Pro Football Focus gave him a minus-0.5 coverage grade for giving up three catches in three targets for 47 yards.
Coverage could be a problem for Bowman this season on play-action passes when he has to change directions. But as long as he keeps stuffing the run, play action won’t be a weapon for opposing teams.
Considering all the players the Niners lost this offseason, Bowman could win the Defensive Player of the Year Award if he leads this defense to a top-five ranking.
Here are Week 2 stock reports for five more 49ers.
Stock Up: OLB Aaron Lynch
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It’s possible the 49ers didn’t cut their best pass-rusher when they released outside linebacker Aldon Smith. It’s possible the Niners’ best pass-rusher all along was second-year outside linebacker Aaron Lynch.
Since 2012, Smith only has 10.5 sacks. And he was practically invisible Week 1 for the Oakland Raiders. Lynch, on the other hand, had six sacks last season as a 21-year-old rookie and one sack Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings.
Pro Football Focus gave Lynch a plus-1.6 pass-rushing grade. Only five outside linebackers received higher pass-rushing grades.
Don’t be surprised if Lynch gets more than 10 sacks and goes to the Pro Bowl this season. He seems like one of the NFL's best pass-rushers, someone who will be a core member of the 49ers’ defense for the next eight to 10 years.
Stock Down: OLB Ahmad Brooks
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Veteran outside linebacker Ahmad Brooks seems like someone who will be phased out as soon as possible.
In 2012 and 2012, the Associated Press voted Brooks second-team All-NFL. He was terrific stopping the run, dropping into pass coverage and rushing the quarterback. He was terrific at everything.
Last season, he started to decline. Pro Football Focus gave him a minus-7.2 grade—fifth-worst among 3-4 outside linebackers who played at least 25 percent of his team’s snaps.
All of a sudden, Brooks wasn't good at everything.
And he doesn’t seem to be getting any better one week into the 2015 season. Pro Football Focus gave him a minus-1.8 grade Monday night—seventh-worst among 3-4 outside linebackers.
Expect rookie third-round pick Eli Harold to take some of Brooks’ Week 2 playing time.
Stock Up: TE Garrett Celek
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Third-string tight end Garrett Celek played in three games last season, and in those three games he played just 35 snaps.
Week 1 against the Vikings, Celek played 52 snaps—eight more than Torrey Smith played and only seven fewer than Anquan Boldin. Celek is an integral part of the Niners offense, as integral as the starting wide receivers.
That’s because the offense seems to revolve around tight ends this season. Monday night, the Niners used three-tight-end formations 36 times, according to Pro Football Focus. No other team uses three tight ends that frequently.
Next week, the Niners face a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that struggles against tight ends. Don’t be surprised if Celek has a big game.
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Stock Down: FB Bruce Miller
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Garrett Celek’s increased playing time had to come at someone’s expense.
And that someone seems to be fullback Bruce Miller. Miller used to be as important to the Niners offense as anyone. Almost every core run in San Francisco’s playbook involved the fullback.
Not anymore. Miller played only 11 snaps Week 1.
That’s not because Miller is no good. He’s a fantastic blocker and probably the league's best fullback in the league. But the Niners’ new zone-blocking scheme doesn’t require a lead-blocking fullback. It requires lots of tight ends to create angles at the line of scrimmage on stretch-zone runs outside the tackles.
Miller should be on a team that features gap blocking.
Stock Up: RB Carlos Hyde
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Before the season began, I projected Carlos Hyde would be the NFC's fifth-best running back behind Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray and Eddie Lacy.
Week 1, Hyde outplayed all of them. He was not only the NFC's best running back, but also in the entire NFL.
The 49ers’ scheme and personnel fit Hyde perfectly. He was born to run in a zone-blocking scheme, and he has two of the NFL's best point-of-attack double-team blockers in the NFL—left tackle Joe Staley and left guard Alex Boone.
Hyde also has Colin Kaepernick, one of the NFL's best bootleg passers. After he hands off to Hyde on a stretch zone run to the left, Kaepernick frequently rolls back to his right. This freezes the defense for a split second and creates more running room for the running back.
Hyde might lead the league in rushing this season.
All snap counts obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
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