NCAA Football Rankings 2015: Predicting the Top 25 After Week 3
After two weeks of mostly sticking to the script, the third Saturday of the college football season featured the first big upsets that will undoubtedly shake things up in the upcoming polls.
The nation's No. 2 team fell at home to a familiar foe, capping a rather crazy evening of action down south and across the country.
While that major SEC West showdown was in the midst of a twisting and turning fourth quarter, another Top 10 team suffered defeat on its own turf.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Elsewhere in the Top 25, several teams made statement wins, while others were just happy to get through Week 3 with a perfect record intact. A couple of ranked programs made things quite interesting late against higher-up foes, and another one continued its dreadful slide down the poll.
With the third weekend of the season in the books, it's time to squeeze in some predictions on just how all this action affected the Associated Press Top 25 poll. Here is this week's projection, along with some highlights and lowlights:
| 1. Ohio State | 1 | 3-0 | Won 20-13 vs. Northern Illinois |
| 2. TCU | 3 | 3-0 | Won 56-37 vs. SMU |
| 3. Michigan State | 4 | 3-0 | Won 35-21 vs. Air Force |
| 4. Georgia | 7 | 3-0 | Won 52-20 vs. South Carolina |
| 5. Baylor | 4 | 2-0 | OFF WEEK |
| 6. Ole Miss | 15 | 3-0 | Won 43-37 at No. 2 Alabama |
| 7. Notre Dame | 8 | 3-0 | Won 30-22 vs. No. 14 Georgia Tech |
| 8. Alabama | 2 | 2-1 | Lost 43-37 vs. No. 15 Ole Miss |
| 9. Florida State | 9 | 3-0 | Won 14-0 at Boston College |
| 10. UCLA | 10 | 3-0 | Won 24-23 vs. No. 19 BYU |
| 11. LSU | 13 | 2-0 | Won 45-21 vs. No. 18 Auburn |
| 12. Oregon | 12 | 2-1 | Won 61-28 vs. Georgia State |
| 13. Clemson | 11 | 3-0 | Won 20-17 at Louisville |
| 14. Oklahoma | 16 | 3-0 | Won 52-38 vs. Tulsa |
| 15. Texas A&M | 17 | 3-0 | Won 44-27 vs. Nevada |
| 16. Arizona | 20 | 3-0 | Won 77-13 vs. Northern Arizona |
| 17. Utah | 21 | 3-0 | Won 45-24 vs. Fresno State |
| 18. Northwestern | 23 | 3-0 | Won 19-10 at Duke |
| 19. USC | 6 | 2-1 | Lost 41-31 vs. Stanford |
| 20. Georgia Tech | 14 | 2-1 | Lost 30-22 at No. 8 Notre Dame |
| 21. Wisconsin | 24 | 2-1 | Won 28-3 vs. Troy |
| 22. Oklahoma State | 25 | 3-0 | Won 64-14 vs. UTSA |
| 23. Stanford | NR | 2-1 | Won 41-31 at No. 6 USC |
| 24. BYU | 19 | 2-1 | Lost 24-23 at No. 10 UCLA |
| 25. Mississippi State | NR | 2-1 | Won 62-13 vs. Northwestern State |
Moving up
Ole Miss
Saturday night's thriller between Ole Miss and Alabama couldn't stay still in terms of narrative—it fluctuated from tight contest to Ole Miss rout, potential Alabama comeback to potential Alabama miracle win.
But Ole Miss held onto a 43-37 victory in Tuscaloosa, knocking off Alabama in consecutive seasons for the first time in school history. The Rebels' victory wasn't exactly pretty, but it was still a huge performance for a team that should rocket up the polls this weekend.
Last season, No. 11 Ole Miss knocked off No. 3 Alabama at home and moved to the third spot in the AP poll, according to College Poll Archive. The Rebels might not move quite that far this week, but the middle of the Top 10 looks like a lock right now.
Ole Miss now has the biggest win of the season on its resume—a rare early-season road victory over Alabama. As I'll explain shortly, I don't see a Baylor team on an off week dropping two spots, so sliding right in at No. 6 seems to be the best fit for Ole Miss.
Georgia
Georgia simply blew the doors off of any talk of South Carolina "pulling a Spurrier," and it also silenced some of its critics in the process of its 52-20 home victory over the Gamecocks.
Quarterback Greyson Lambert, ridiculed for his abysmal start last weekend against Vanderbilt, did one of the most drastic 180s in college football history with an FBS record-breaking 24-of-25 passing performance for 330 yards and three touchdowns.
"This is what Georgia football needs to be," Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee wrote. "Instead of '[running back] Nick Chubb left' and 'Nick Chubb right,' it's a similar recipe with a dash of downfield danger mixed in. Lambert proved Saturday that he's the guy to provide that extra seasoning."
With the Georgia defense continuing to look fierce, the Bulldogs are ideal candidates to surge in the polls. Idle Baylor has been less-than-stellar so far this season, so don't be surprised if the blowout in Athens causes Georgia to jump into the top four.
LSU
Getting an extra bump in the predicted poll this week is LSU, which hammered then-No. 18 Auburn at home by a score of 45-21 in Tiger Stadium.
After a shaky finish to last week's victory over Mississippi State, LSU left no doubt Saturday who the better Tigers were in the SEC West. Star sophomore running back Leonard Fournette had the best Week 3 performance of any FBS running back, averaging 12 yards per touch and scoring three touchdowns.
Defensively, Auburn only found the end zone in the second half, when LSU already had the big win virtually locked down in Baton Rouge. LSU held Auburn to 70 yards of offense in a scoreless first half.
With Clemson struggling Thursday night at Louisville, I project LSU will leapfrog Clemson and Oregon—which allowed 21 points in the third quarter to a bad Georgia State team—and grab at least the No. 11 spot in this week's poll.
Stanford and Mississippi State
I have a pair of lackluster SEC teams falling out of the Top 25 this week, leaving room for Stanford and Mississippi State to reclaim spots in the rankings.
Stanford entered the Coliseum on Saturday as decent-sized underdogs against USC, but the Cardinal's offense kept up its momentum from last week as Kevin Hogan went 18-for-23 passing for 279 yards and two touchdowns in a 41-31 win. Defensively, Stanford held USC to a 4-of-10 performance on third downs.
While normal poll logic would put Stanford ahead of USC after the victory, the Cardinal are having to come from all the way down near the bottom of the "also receiving votes" category. Jumping all the way past USC and several undefeated teams might not be in the cards just yet for Stanford.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State slides back into the Top 25 after a rout of FCS foe Northwestern State. The Bulldogs should get a boost in the eyes of the pollsters for their Week 2 comeback against what looks to be a stronger LSU team and a near-disaster for Temple against UMass.
Moving down
Alabama
Once again, Alabama is a tricky team to predict in terms of poll position after a close loss to Ole Miss. This season, the Crimson Tide had five turnovers but still had a chance to beat the Rebels on the final drive of the game.
"I don't know anyone we could beat if we're going to give away 31 points," Alabama head coach Nick Saban said after the game, per Bleacher Report's Christopher Walsh. "...We just have a lot of things we have to do better."
Last season, No. 3 Alabama lost a close game to Ole Miss in Oxford and only fell four spots to No. 7. This time around, the Tide should have a slightly bigger fall from No. 2 due to No. 8 Notre Dame's big home win over a ranked Georgia Tech team.
Alabama does have some big issues to correct, but this program has proven in the past that it can bounce back from regular-season losses and compete for championships. I slot Alabama just ahead of Florida State and UCLA, who didn't exactly blow anyone away with their performances this weekend.
USC
USC was untested heading into Saturday's Pac-12 opener against Stanford. The Trojans beat up on a pair of Sun Belt teams for the first weekend of the season—a far cry from the physical and determined Cardinal.
"Saturday was a prime chance to cement [USC's] status as a contender in the rigorous Pac-12 South and for a berth in the College Football Playoff," Chris Johnson of Sports Illustrated wrote. "The Trojans, quite simply, fell short."
Problems that emerged for USC in its opening blowouts—third-down offense and pass-rushing—haunted the Trojans on Saturday against Stanford. Penalties were also a big problem, as USC saw a long Adoree' Jackson kick return for a touchdown get called back.
As Johnson writes, USC has some opportunities to fight back up the polls after this early-season setback. I have USC falling 13 spots, putting it just ahead of one-loss squads Georgia Tech and Wisconsin but behind a long list of midrange undefeated teams.
Georgia Tech and BYU
Georgia Tech may have only lost by eight points to Notre Dame, but the Yellow Jackets were simply outmatched for most of their road game in South Bend on Saturday.
Paul Johnson's option attack didn't have nearly the same amount of efficiency as it had late last season and through the first two games of 2015. However, a road loss to a Top 10 team is better than some of the resumes near the bottom of the Top 25, so don't expect the Yellow Jackets to bottom out of the poll.
Meanwhile, BYU dropped a close loss at No. 10 UCLA on Saturday night as the magic from quarterback Tanner Mangum simply ran out on a late drive.
BYU has two quality wins over Nebraska and Boise State, and going back and forth with a potential Power Five title contender shouldn't crush the Cougars in the midst of a tough schedule. I predict BYU hangs around in the Top 25 ahead of next week's trip to the Big House to face Michigan.
Auburn and Missouri
This week's poll prediction isn't as bad for the SEC as last week's, but the two teams I predict will fall out of the Top 25 are both from the powerhouse conference.
Auburn stayed in the poll last weekend after almost losing to FCS opponent Jacksonville State, and the Tigers looked like they didn't deserve that honor Saturday in the loss to LSU. Quarterback Jeremy Johnson struggled yet again as LSU ran for 411 yards on Will Muschamp's poor defense.
Earlier in the day, No. 22 Missouri struggled mightily against a UConn program that just squeaked by FCS opponent Villanova in Week 1 and lost to Army in Week 2.
The Tigers' 9-6 victory was the epitome of a lackluster performance in an early kickoff. Missouri was already coming off an underwhelming win against Arkansas State, and putting up just nine points on UConn doesn't bode well for its survival chances in the polls.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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