Stanford vs. USC Complete Game Preview
While the rest of the league continues its nonconference play in Week 3, the Pac-12 season will officially begin Saturday night with a prime-time matchup of two California powerhouses—Stanford and No. 6 USC.
The Trojans have dominated their first two games of the season, outscoring Arkansas State and Idaho, 114-15, in the comforts of the Coliseum. USC will remain in Los Angeles this weekend, eager to record its third straight win over North division power Stanford.
The Cardinal, who received some surprising playoff buzz in the preseason, fell flat in their season opener at Northwestern and quickly dropped out of the Top 25. But Stanford rebounded last weekend on the Farm, smacking UCF by a score of 31-7 behind a stifling defense and a personal-best day from quarterback Kevin Hogan.
These two powerful programs have taken each other down to the wire across the last several seasons, with the last five matchups having been decided by a combined 23 points. Even though there's a clear favorite this season, could we see some more late-game drama in this rivalry?
Before we break down Stanford vs. USC, here is all the basic info you need to know:
Date: Saturday, September 19
Time: 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. local time)
Location: Los Angeles (Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum)
TV: ABC
Line: USC -10, according to Odds Shark
Stanford Keys to Victory
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Make those red-zone trips count
Stanford's chief offensive problem during its disappointing 2014 campaign was red-zone inefficiency, and it has been an issue through the first two games of 2015 as well. With just four scores—and only two touchdowns—on seven trips inside the 20s, the Cardinal are currently ranked No. 121 nationally in red-zone scoring percentage.
Last year against USC, Stanford had its worst performance inside the red zone, with just one touchdown and one field goal in five trips. The Cardinal would go on to finish No. 112 in that category for the entire season.
While Stanford isn't necessarily an offensive juggernaut right now, its power style will be the first big test for the USC defense all season. If the Cardinal can control the ball and ram their way into the red zone, they must do a better job of putting points on the board. Last season, Stanford paid dearly for its missteps in that area.
Defend as a unit
USC's offense has a lot of explosive playmakers who excel in space, especially with a superstar quarterback such as Cody Kessler pulling the strings. Because of this, head coach David Shaw said he knows Stanford can't afford to focus on individuals.
"It's not about taking guys one-on-one for the whole game...the help has got to be there," Shaw said, per Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News. "This is a big, big, big team-defense game. They all are, but this one in particular."
The Trojans are firing on all cylinders offensively after putting up huge points against a pair of Sun Belt teams. Stanford's defense needs to hit USC hard from the opening drive of the game, swarm to the football as a unit and give the Trojans their first truly physical matchup of the season.
Limit big special teams plays
With superstar sophomore Adoree' Jackson handling both kickoff and punt returns, USC has a valuable weapon in special teams who can create big plays in an instant.
Stanford's punt coverage unit has only allowed one return of seven yards all season, but kickoffs are a different story. Opponents are averaging 23 yards per kick return on Stanford so far, with UCF's Jordan Akins taking one for 44 yards last weekend to set up the Knights' only touchdown of the game.
Jackson provides a bigger challenge on special teams, as the sophomore simply refuses to call for a fair catch on punts. While he hasn't broken the big one yet, he could make the Cardinal special teams unit pay Saturday if it can't wrap him up early.
USC Keys to Victory
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Establish the running game
USC has gotten out to a hot start this season running the football thanks to a deep corps of running backs. Four Trojans backs have found the end zone through the first two games of the season, with freshman Ronald Jones II leading in yards and senior Tre Madden leading in touchdowns.
Continuing that success on the ground against the Cardinal would be huge for USC. Stanford usually boasts a top-10 run defense, and according to the Associated Press via CBS Sports, the Cardinal have held the Trojans to a paltry 2.3 yards per carry in their last three meetings.
Northwestern hit Stanford for 225 rushing yards in the Cardinal's season-opening loss, but the defense clamped down and held UCF to just 30 on the ground last week. In such a physical matchup, look for USC to pound the ball at Stanford early in order to open up some favorable matchups for Kessler and the receivers in the passing game.
Improve on third downs
Arkansas State and Idaho didn't force USC into many third-down situations during the first two games of the season. But in the 16 third downs the Trojans have faced this year, they have only converted four—which makes for one of the worst rates in the country.
The third-down struggles didn't hurt USC at all in the first two games, but they could haunt the offense against a better-quality opponent such as Stanford.
There might be a temptation to try to gash the Cardinal for big plays right out of the gate, especially after the big performances in Weeks 1 and 2, but the USC offense needs to focus on moving the chains. Too many miscues on third down can lead to more time with the ball for possession-minded Stanford.
Force Kevin Hogan into mistakes
Another area USC hasn't done well in during its first two routs of Sun Belt foes is getting to the quarterback. The Trojans only have two sacks so far this season, and head coach Steve Sarkisian told reporters he'd like to see more improvement out of the pass rush against Stanford.
Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan is far from the most consistent signal-caller USC will face all season. After struggling mightily against Northwestern in the season opener, he set a career high for passing yards with 341 against UCF last week.
Hogan was efficient for a rather toothless Stanford offense in its matchup with USC last season, and he threw a pair of interceptions during the Cardinal's loss in 2013. If the talented Trojans defense can get after the senior, this game could swing toward USC in a hurry.
Stanford Players to Watch
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QB Kevin Hogan
Hogan is looking for his first win against USC in what has been an up-and-down career with the Cardinal. The senior succeeded early on as the starting quarterback, and while his production improved last season, Stanford went backward as an offense.
However, Hogan is coming off a career game against UCF. His completion percentage will definitely be something to keep an eye on this matchup—he's posted back-to-back games below 60 percent after having just two of those all of last season.
With the Stanford running game still a major work-in-progress with an average of 3.16 yards in the first two matchups of the year, all eyes will be on Hogan as he leads a Cardinal offense that wants to make a statement against USC.
LB Blake Martinez
The star of the Stanford defense, Martinez is leading the Cardinal in tackles (22) by a large margin and has recorded the team's only interception of the young 2015 season.
With the Stanford defense already breaking in plenty of new full-time starters and down defensive tackle Harrison Phillips for the rest of the season, Martinez is taking on more and more responsibility as the senior leader and top playmaker.
Last season, Martinez had 10 tackles against USC on his way to breaking the 100-tackle mark for the entire campaign. Expect him to be all over the field for a Stanford defense that is focused on staying at its elite form from seasons past.
CB Ronnie Harris
Another key veteran on an otherwise new-look defensive unit is senior cornerback Ronnie Harris, who currently leads the team in pass breakups (he's tied with Martinez with three).
Harris, if you can recall, has already made a big impact against USC during his career at Stanford. In 2012, the cornerback broke up a USC fake field-goal pass in the end zone during the third quarter. Following that stop, Stanford would go on to score 14 unanswered points and record a 21-14 win over USC.
Harris and the Stanford secondary will have its hands full with the USC offense this year, as quarterback Cody Kessler has been on a tear to open the season. His veteran presence and experience in big games will go a long way for Stanford.
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USC Players to Watch
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QB Cody Kessler
Kessler has been excellent in his first two games of the season, completing 78.9 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. The senior boasts the second-best efficiency rating in the country, just behind Ole Miss newcomer Chad Kelly.
The USC quarterback has done well with his arm in the last two seasons against Stanford. Even though he didn't find the end zone in last season's matchup, he completed 68 percent of his attempts. In the 2013 game, he threw for 288 yards and three touchdowns.
Kessler has established a good rhythm early this season with his playmakers at wide receiver and a deeper group of running backs. Now he'll set his sights on taking down a Power Five defense.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
While Kessler has spread the ball around to a number of receivers so far this season, JuJu Smith-Schuster is by far his main target. The sophomore has recorded 14 receptions for 281 yards and three touchdowns through the first two games of 2015.
"As good as he was last year, you can just tell now he's got even more savvy," Shaw said, per the Pac-12's website. "He's one of those guys, he's just fun to watch as a football fan. It's crazy to look at him and say he's a sophomore."
With Stanford's early-season success against the pass, Smith-Schuster will have to work even harder to make more big plays with Kessler this weekend. The nation's No. 3 receiver only had one catch for a loss of two yards against Stanford last season, but he'll be a much tougher matchup this time around.
LB Su'a Cravens
Stanford's offensive style will demand a lot of work out of USC star linebacker Su'a Cravens. Against the Cardinal, he'll be asked to stop the run, rush the passer, help out in coverage and even go one-on-one with some of Stanford's tight ends.
Cravens has done well in his new position with the Trojans, recording eight tackles, one sack and one interception through the first two games of the season.
Like Martinez, Cravens will be flying all over the place in this Pac-12 showdown, making plays in several different ways for his defense. He'll definitely be one to watch as he plays in his first big game at linebacker after starting his career at safety.
What They're Saying
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Stanford
Head coach David Shaw on his team's preparation as the underdog, per Tom FitzGerald of SFGate.com:
"[There are] very few people that think we have a chance to find a way to win. That’s natural. What I try to do is guide that (underdog role) and make sure it helps in our preparation, not just in our attitude. Attitude doesn’t win football games. Preparation does.
"
Quarterback Kevin Hogan on the offense's bounce-back game against UCF, per the Associated Press via CBS Sports:
"You never want to allow it to creep in that, 'Oh no, we can't reach the end zone. It was almost like breaking the ice. We were able to move the chains and keep the drives going and that allowed the bigger plays to happen.
"
Cornerback Ronnie Harris on the matchup with USC, per Kyle Bonagura of ESPN.com:
"Two hard-nosed, well-coached teams going at it. It's what you want. That's what college football should be about. I wouldn't say it's a rivalry, but it definitely feels that way.
"
USC
Head coach Steve Sarkisian on preparing for Stanford, per Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times:
"They have their style of play, which they're committed to, and they're good at it. But I also don't want to shift the focus away from us... We've got a good formula for success. I think we understand the process now.
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Linebacker Scott Felix on the Cardinal's offensive style, per Klein:
"Any time an offense huddles like that is rare now. So you get a little bit of a breath, instead of just running to the next play. That helps us.
"
Linebacker Anthony Sarao on playing Stanford, per Greg Katz of ESPN.com:
"It’s time to lock in. I mean it’s getting the butterflies inside, it’s exciting, get the chills, if you know what I mean. It’s not preseason or a non-conference game, it’s a conference game, you know. Stanford is Stanford and we’re going to do what we’re going to do, and we’re going to prepare like usual and we’re going to come out and win the game.
"
Prediction
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Both USC and Stanford are somewhat tough teams to read at this point in the season.
USC has cruised to huge wins with excellent offense and stifling defense, but its competition has been a pair of Sun Belt teams. While Stanford's offense was abysmal against Northwestern, it bounced back against UCF as the defense shut things down.
USC probably won't waltz right into the Coliseum on Saturday and start putting up a boatload of points on Stanford. However, the Trojans' early success in the running game is encouraging for this offense, especially after the amount of yardage Northwestern was able to hang on the Cardinal.
Only time will tell if Stanford's offensive rebound in Week 2 was for real or just the product of a second-half surge against an overmatched UCF team. The Cardinal's struggles with getting quality yards on the ground against both opponents will put this matchup in the hands of a rather unpredictable Hogan.
It might take a little while for USC's offense to adjust to Stanford's physicality on defense after back-to-back routs. After a low-scoring, back-and-forth first half, USC starts hitting some big plays on Stanford. The Cardinal offense simply can't keep up, and the Trojans win going away.
Prediction: USC 34, Stanford 17
All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruit rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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