Auburn vs. LSU Complete Game Preview
My, how quickly things can change.
One week ago, the Auburn Tigers were a top-10 team coming off an uneven but good win over ACC foe the Louisville Cardinals at the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game. The Tigers were heading into a tuneup game against FCS team the Jacksonville State Gamecocks as big favorites, ready to face the start of the SEC slate.
But a banged-up and mistake-prone Auburn team that was a 39-point favorite had to rally to force overtime against its underdogs from upstate and then pull out a narrow 27-20 victory. Auburn then fell to No. 18 in the AP poll as some major concerns arose about the Tigers' true strength in 2015.
Meanwhile, the LSU Tigers took the field for their first official game of the season—their opener against the McNeese State Cowboys was canceled due to bad weather—and held onto a 21-19 nail-biter against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bayou Bengals showed great improvement in several areas, but some familiar problems led to a late comeback and a last-gasp field goal try from the Bulldogs.
Now both sets of Tigers will hit Baton Rouge, Louisiana, this Saturday for a massive SEC West showdown. No. 18 Auburn hasn't won in Tiger Stadium since 1999, and it could get back on track as a potential title contender with improvement and a huge victory on the road against No. 13 LSU.
Before we break down the 2015 Tiger Bowl, here's the basic info for the matchup:
Date: Saturday, September 19
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET (2:30 p.m. local time)
Location: Baton Rouge, Louisiana (Tiger Stadium)
TV: CBS
Line: LSU -6.5, according to Odds Shark
Auburn Keys to Victory
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Find some offensive explosiveness
For an offense that has been so explosive in the last few seasons, Auburn's 2015 has started out with a whimper instead of a bang.
According to Bill Connelly of SB Nation, Auburn ranked first and eighth, respectively, for rushes of 10-plus yards during each of the last two seasons. Auburn is currently ranked 91st in that category nationally, and it hasn't busted a single run of more than 30 yards yet this season—a rarity for such a run-first, big-play offense.
Sure, Auburn's offensive struggles to start the season can be traced to quarterback Jeremy Johnson's turnover-prone ways. But the running game hasn't had the same punch as Auburn is used to seeing, with nagging injuries to both Jovon Robinson and Roc Thomas.
The Tigers will most likely base their offense Saturday on running right at an LSU defensive front that has talent but lacks depth. In order for that to work, they'll need to generate some big plays, or they'll play right into LSU's strengths.
Protect the football
Johnson has thrown five interceptions so far this season, and that number might seem a bit lucky for the junior. He had a pass or two against Louisville and Jacksonville State that could've easily been picked off.
Head coach Gus Malzahn is sticking with Johnson for the time being, and that's a fine call for now. Even though he's struggled with some flat-out awful decision-making on his interceptions, Johnson has delivered some high-quality passes in the first two games of the season.
But negatives always get magnified, for good reason, with quarterbacks. And when game commentators are wondering aloud if the quarterback has vision problems due to some of the throws he's making, that's far from ideal, no matter how many yards and completions he has at the end of the game.
In his first true road start, Johnson simply needs to cut down his interceptions and bad reads. Games in Death Valley can get sideways quickly if the LSU defense starts making huge plays, as the Tigers saw in 2011 and 2013.
Get the defensive starters back
After such a strong first half of football against Louisville in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game, Auburn's defense has struggled mightily in the last six quarters, allowing 679 yards and 44 points to Louisville and FCS foe Jacksonville State.
Against Jacksonville State, Auburn's defense was far from full strength. Top pass-rusher Carl Lawson was held out of the game, along with safety Tray Matthews. Linebacker Justin Garrett, who had a fantastic performance as a starter against Louisville, went down with an injury early, and cornerback Blake Countess was ejected for a targeting call in the first half. Veteran defensive back Josh Holsey tore his ACL.
Lawson missed the entire second half against Louisville, when the Cardinals scored all of their points and threatened to make a serious comeback on the Tigers. Simply put, Auburn's defense looks completely different without Lawson out on the field—his ability seemingly boosts every unit.
Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp said all four of those defensive stars—except for Holsey, who is out for the season—were "day to day" with their injuries, per Ryan Black of Auburn Undercover. Of course, Malzahn told Brandon Marcello of al.com that Lawson, Matthews and Robinson were expected to play against Jacksonville State, but they didn't. Auburn needs to look like the defense that started against Louisville, and the return of these players would be a great start.
LSU Keys to Victory
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Let Brandon Harris run
Auburn's struggles against dual-threat quarterbacks in the last few seasons have been well documented, and they continue to plague the Tigers in 2015.
Louisville freshman Lamar Jackson took over the season opener with his success on scrambles and the power-read option, finishing the game with 106 rushing yards on 16 carries. While Jacksonville State quarterback Eli Jenkins didn't have as many rushing yards on Auburn thanks to some big sacks, the Tigers couldn't stop the power-read when the Gamecocks were practically telegraphing it before every play.
This week, Auburn has to face another dual-threat quarterback in Brandon Harris, who showed great improvement from his miserable first career start on the Plains last season. While his stats against Mississippi State weren't eye-popping—running back Leonard Fournette dominated that game—he looked more comfortable with his decisions and made a few plays with his legs.
LSU ran the zone read 11 times for 45 yards against Mississippi State, according to Ross Dellenger of the Advocate. With Auburn surrendering a Power Five-high of 293 yards against that play in the first two weeks of the season, Harris should get a lot of reps running the ball with Fournette.
Be less predictable on offense
Plenty of LSU fans groaned during the second half of the Tigers' 21-19 victory over Mississippi State, as the Bulldogs made a late surge and had a chance to win the game on a long field goal.
While the LSU defense seemingly running out of gas played a significant part in the Bulldogs' comeback attempt, the conservative offensive play-calling was a topic of heated discussion. Harris went from 56 passing yards in the first half to just 15 in the second half as the offense stuck to plain ground-and-pound.
Granted, LSU had some big plays against Mississippi State get called back because of penalties, and Harris told reporters Monday he checked out of several passing plays, per David Ching of ESPN.com.
But against a defense that is struggling—and could be less than full strength due to injuries—LSU would definitely benefit from opening up the playbook. Harris made some good throws last Saturday and looked a lot better than the quarterback who struggled at Auburn. Now, will the coaches give him a shot at revenge?
Rattle Jeremy Johnson
Auburn's starting quarterback has struggled for stretches in a virtual home game against Louisville and a real home game against Jacksonville State. Now he has to face LSU's defense in Tiger Stadium.
LSU only recorded three sacks of veteran Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott last week. But even though he finished with more than 300 passing yards, the Tigers hurried him eight times in the victory.
If LSU can get after Johnson early and cause some more big mistakes in the passing game, it could ride the wave of momentum and get out to an early lead again in front of its home crowd. Although Johnson hasn't been sacked yet this season, he has forced throws into tight coverage—which could be even more costly against a secondary like the one LSU has.
Cranking up the pressure and the volume in Death Valley on Saturday afternoon would be the perfect recipe for success against a quarterback that is having a tough time through the first two games of the season.
Auburn Players to Watch
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DE Carl Lawson
With another dual-threat quarterback set to take on Muschamp's defense, Auburn needs the extra boost in its pass-rush and pursuit that Lawson can bring.
Lawson brought the pressure on Louisville's Lamar Jackson on the first play of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game, and the freshman tossed an interception. When Lawson was off the field in the second half, Auburn had a hard time containing the speedy Cardinal—and the same went for the defense against Jacksonville State quarterback Eli Jenkins in Week 2.
Muschamp told reporters he expected Lawson, who went down with a hip flexor injury, and the rest of Auburn's injured defensive starters to be ready this week against LSU. If he's able to play at full speed, recent history suggests the Tigers defense should look a lot better.
QB Jeremy Johnson
Once again, Johnson is an obvious player to watch. The Tigers need him to start making better decisions with the ball in order to succeed in the SEC schedule, and this is where it all begins.
One of the more intriguing storylines heading into Baton Rouge is how Malzahn will call the first few drives for Johnson. Will Auburn stick to the increasingly productive Peyton Barber on the ground or open things up early? If Johnson could hit a few big passing plays in the first half, one would imagine he would be able to settle down instead of trying to force things with his arm.
Another key area to watch for with Johnson is his running ability. Auburn seemed to abandon Johnson's involvement in the ground game against Jacksonville State. Saturday could feature more read-option plays, especially with his early struggles through the air.
WR D'haquille Williams
Saturday will undoubtedly be an emotional day for D'haquille Williams, the Louisiana native and one-time LSU commitment.
His return to his home state would be the perfect time for Williams to have a breakout performance. In the first two games of the season, the senior has only recorded five catches for 62 yards. He's made some big first-down completions for the Tigers, but Johnson's woes have kept the star quiet so far.
The big plays could be there for the taking against LSU on Saturday. Mississippi State wide receiver De'Runnya Wilson, a physical pass-catcher, had eight receptions for 86 yards and one touchdown against LSU last Saturday. Auburn would love a similar performance from its star wideout.
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LSU Players to Watch
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RB Leonard Fournette
While LSU's conservative play-calling might have limited the full potential of Harris and his talented wide receivers last Saturday, it put hard-running sophomore Leonard Fournette on a pedestal. The star running back ran 28 times for 159 yards and scored all three of LSU's touchdowns.
If LSU favors a more vanilla approach on offense again this weekend, it has a great chance of succeeding with one of the most talented running backs in the entire country ready to carry the load. A more-experienced Fournette will be a handful for Auburn on Saturday.
"He's got good vision," Muschamp said, per al.com's Wesley Sinor. "Run-game wise they've always been the same with Les (Miles), but now this guy has got some vision with the cutbacks and some of the things in the run game... We certainly know we've got our work cut out for us this weekend."
QB Brandon Harris
Harris' first career start last season—against Auburn—featured one of the more ghastly stat lines of the entire season. The LSU quarterback went 3-of-14 passing for 58 yards and zero touchdowns with 36 yards on the ground.
Against Mississippi State last Saturday, though, he had a much better performance, going 9-of-14 through the air for 71 yards and adding 48 rushing yards on just five carries. Harris didn't turn the ball over and delivered some spectacular throws in the first half before the Tigers stuck primarily with the power run.
The sophomore quarterback will definitely be looking forward to the Auburn game Saturday, which will be his first start in Tiger Stadium and a shot at revenge on the team that bottled him up completely last season. He should have a big workload with both his arm and his legs.
LB Deion Jones
Jones led LSU in tackles last weekend against Mississippi State and was all over the field. According to CFBStats, he also had one of the Tigers' five tackles for loss against the Bulldogs and recorded two quarterback hurries.
"It affected [Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott] big time," Jones said Saturday, per Jacob Hamilton of the Daily Reveille. "We tried to pepper him, tried to make him uncomfortable in the pocket. The d-line did a great job with that, and the safeties with their blitzes."
Jones is a key figure against the run and the pass for LSU, and he'll be asked to pressure the quarterback again as Johnson takes the field for a big road start. Look for the coaching staff to turn Jones loose on blitzes when Johnson looks to take to the skies.
What They're Saying
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Auburn
Head coach Gus Malzahn on Auburn's road test in Baton Rouge, per Wesley Sinor of AL.com:
"One of the toughest places to play in college football. Our young guys will have to handle that well, and we're doing everything we can in practice to prepare them. ... History shows this is a big game. ... We need to do a good job and be ready.
"
Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp on Auburn's early defensive struggles, per Tom Green of the Opelika-Auburn News:
""They're all correctable. I think we've got a good group. It's unfortunate that sometimes you have to go through these things at times. We're going to fight through it, band together and go down to Baton Rouge and face a really good football team. ... Some of (the problems are) youth, some of that is inexperience in some places that may have been a player that’s been in the program but hasn’t played as much. We’ve got enough good players to have a good defense and that’s what we plan on doing and we haven’t played consistently to that standard yet, but we certainly are working to that goal and I feel like it’ll happen.
Center Austin Golson on quarterback Jeremy Johnson, per Phillip Marshall of Auburn Undercover:
"He’s fine. We just have to have a great week of practice. I trust him. I think he’ll do well. I thought he did well anyway. He’s still leading and being the same guy he was before we played our first game. He does a very good job of leading, and I think he’ll continue to do so.
"
Safety Johnathan Ford on LSU running back Leonard Fournette, per Green:
"It shouldn't be that difficult of a challenge.
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LSU
Head coach Les Miles on if the Jacksonville State game changes his perception of Auburn, per quotes from the team's website:
"No, it makes no difference to me whatsoever. I recognize that they played a very good football team and it has not to do with, you know, what the score was or how it ended, in my opinion. It has to do more with it's a very talented Auburn team and really working hard to be something special, so we respect them.
"
Miles on Johnson's running ability:
"Yeah, a little bit more a prototype, you know, NFL-style passer, although he can run. He's not one of those guys that you're going to dial up 20 runs a game for ... Yeah, but he'll still pull it and make some yards so you're going to have to take the responsibility there anyway. His abilities are more in the throwing game. They'll still have a nice tailback and some receivers to throw it to. So it's still very much a formidable offense, it's just not the same Cam Newton style of runner.
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Quarterback Brandon Harris on Auburn's defense, per Jim Kleinpeter of NOLA.com:
"We get everybody's best game, and Auburn's going to play us tough. ... They're very, very good up front. I think they've got a guy who transferred in from Georgia in the secondary. They've got very good athletes in the back half and in the front seven. We're going to get a tough game. We're going to get their best game. They've been criticized a lot in the last couple of weeks. ... So they're going to come out and give us their best game.
"
Prediction
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I had this game penciled as a win for Auburn for the entire offseason. With the way LSU's offense struggled at quarterback last season, Auburn's own offensive success against the LSU defense in 2014 and the fact the road game would be in the afternoon instead of the traditional night slot—I expected the visitors to get a good win here.
However, the way Auburn has looked to start the season has made me reconsider some things. Johnson's interception problems are especially troublesome heading into a road test, and the running game can't seem to find that next gear that it has used to torment defenses the last two seasons.
Defensively, a lot of Auburn's success will hinge on the status of players such as Lawson and Matthews. And even if they play, how good will they look after missing time? An improved Harris also looks like an ideal candidate to cause even more problems for the orange-and-blue Tigers, especially after the struggles against a Louisville freshman and an FCS signal-caller.
It's possible Auburn could fix all these problems—Johnson's decision-making, offensive explosion and defensive play against the read-option—and improvement in one category could have a ripple effect for a team desperate to bounce back with a huge road win. Maybe the Jacksonville State near-disaster will put a spark in this team.
The Auburn team that has played the last six quarters is going to have a hard time beating LSU, even with the Bayou Bengals' defensive depth worries and tendencies to keep it too simple on offense. Both teams will get their points and make their mistakes. But without knowing which Auburn will show up, I lean toward the home team in a close game right now.
Prediction: LSU 27, Auburn 23
All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruit rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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