Florida vs. Kentucky Complete Game Preview
Florida head coach Jim McElwain survived the first true test of his tenure in a 31-24 win over East Carolina, but now he gets his first taste of SEC football.
Kentucky will host the Gators in a rematch of last year's triple-overtime thriller, which the Gators won 36-30 after the Wildcats missed a field goal and running back Matt Jones scored a touchdown on the ensuing drive.
McElwain's second game was far uglier than his first, both on the field and on the sideline, where he earned criticism for verbally undressing running back Kelvin Taylor after Taylor made a throat-slashing gesture and was hit with a 15-yard flag.
He'll need to combat the distraction, along with a pretty strong opponent, if he wants to stay undefeated past Saturday. The Wildcats are 2-0, beat South Carolina last weekend and are amped in search for their first win over Florida since 1986.
Do they have what it takes to pull off the upset? Would beating Florida even be considered an upset? Can McElwain start off his SEC head coaching career on the right foot?
Here is everything you need to know for game week.
Date: Saturday, September 19
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Commonwealth Stadium; Lexington, Kentucky
TV: SEC Network
Line: Florida -3, according to Odds Shark
Florida Keys to Victory
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Establish the Running Game
The running game took a step back against East Carolina, when Florida gained just 168 yards on 38 carries. It averaged fewer than 4.5 yards per attempt against an AAC team that lost its best run defender, nose tackle Terry Williams, from 2014.
Fortunately, Kentucky can be run on. The Wildcats have allowed 442 yards on 81 carries this season, ranking No. 111 in the country in yards allowed per game and No. 114 in yards allowed per rush.
Granted, those numbers came against a solid pair of running backs—Louisiana-Lafayette's Elijah McGuire and South Carolina's Brandon Wilds—they still point to a deficiency in the Wildcats' front seven. This defense lost a lot from last year's two-deep, and Florida would do well to exploit those losses, win the point of attack and establish Taylor, Jordan Scarlett and Jordan Cronkrite as early as possible.
Doing so should open up the passing game.
Prevent Explosive Plays
In the first half of last year's meeting, Florida held Kentucky to three points. The Wildcats struggled to stay on schedule and gain traction, punting on each of their first five possessions before finally kicking a field goal at the end of the second quarter.
What got Kentucky going in the second half was a string of big passing plays. Freshman receiver Garrett Johnson caught a 60-yard touchdown on the second drive of the third quarter, then followed that with two more 30-yard receptions, one of which went for another touchdown, on the following possession.
Just like that, the Wildcats turned a 3-3 tie into a 17-13 lead, and the game became a track meet from there. Even under McElwain (as opposed to the plodding Will Muschamp), Florida does not want to let this game become a track meet.
It is still better suited to a slugfest.
Kentucky Keys to Victory
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Protect the Football
Quarterback Patrick Towles took care of the ball last season, throwing nine interceptions on 393 attempts. But three of those interceptions came on 45 attempts against the Gators, and those costly mistakes, which all came in the second half of a game that ended up in triple overtime, were a big reason Kentucky fell short of the upset.
Towles has been even more turnover-prone this season, throwing one interception apiece against Louisiana-Lafayette and South Carolina. Gators safety Keanu Neal, who recorded two of last year's interceptions against Kentucky, will also make his season debut after missing the first two games with a leg injury, per Edgar Thompson of the Orlando Sentinel.
None of that seems to bode well for Towles, who has long frustrated Kentucky fans with his upside-inconsistency quotient. He needs to play a clean game from start to finish, because on paper he has the talent to lead the Wildcats to a signature victory.
He just can't afford to shoot them in the foot.
Rattle Florida's Quarterbacks Early
Will Grier completed 10 of 17 passes for 151 yards, two touchdowns and one interception against East Carolina. Treon Harris completed five of eight passes for 54 yards and nothing else. Both second-year quarterbacks looked decent but unremarkable.
The benefit of that for Kentucky is that the Gators still have a quarterback competition. It remains unclear which option gives them the best chance to win, and therefore every mistake one makes becomes magnified by the presence of the other.
Kentucky can take advantage of that by pressuring, upsetting and rattling Florida's quarterbacks early. The sooner Gators players start looking around for answers, the better. South Carolina entered last week's game with quarterback questions, and although Connor Mitch suffered an injury, which made Kentucky's job easier, the Wildcats, to their credit, made him look bad from the opening whistle.
Kentucky needs to get in Florida's offense's head.
Florida Players to Watch
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DT Joey Ivie
Joey Ivie came up huge against East Carolina, recording three sacks for 22 yards and one forced fumble. His knack for creating pressure up the middle is something the Gators lacked last season, and it's exactly the type of factor that could force Towles into ill-advised throws. With cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III questionable, Florida's defense might drop more players into coverage than usual. If it does, Ivie and the front four become doubly important as pass-rushers.
DB Keanu Neal
Neal is set to return to the lineup after missing the first two games of the season. He had two interceptions when these teams met last season and is also a dependable open-field tackler. Florida's pass defense looked shaky with Neal and Hargreaves on the sideline against East Carolina, but Neal's return provides an immediate boost. Keep an eye on where he lines up, how often he plays and how he looks on a potentially bum leg.
RB Kelvin Taylor
Taylor had a slow game against East Carolina and earned more press for his post-touchdown throat-slashing gesture, and then McElwain's very public tirade, than he did for his play on the field. That might have been for the best as he only rushed for 55 yards on 16 carries while Cronkite rushed for 47 yards on nine carries and Scarlett rushed for 24 yards on four carries. But Cronkite and Scarlett are freshmen playing their first SEC opponent, so Florida will count on Taylor to make a difference in Week 3. Hopefully, all the off-field drama will refocus him more than it distracts him.
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Kentucky Players to Watch
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LBs Josh Forrest and Khalid Henderson
Josh Forrest is one of the best inside linebackers in college football and Kentucky's best hope of stuffing the run. Khalid Henderson has 18 tackles through two games and has done well rushing the quarterback. Both players are seniors who understand the scope of Kentucky's losing streak to Florida, as are fellow linebackers Jabari Johnson and Ryan Flannigan. They will get up for this game as if they're playing for the conference title, and Florida will have to match their intensity.
WR Garrett Johnson
Johnson starred in last year's game with six catches, 154 yards and two touchdowns, but he failed to sustain that success and would never top two receptions or 30 yards for the rest of the season. He's already topped those numbers in each of Kentucky's first two games of 2015, posting five catches for 85 yards and a touchdown against UL-Lafayette and five catches for 45 yards against South Carolina. Especially if Hargreaves doesn't play or is limited, Towles will look for Johnson early and often. Can he repeat last year's production against the Gators?
CB Chris Westry
Chris Westry earned SEC Freshman of the Week honors after posting six tackles, one sack, one pass breakup and the game-sealing interception against South Carolina. He is listed as a starter on the Wildcats' depth chart and should spend a good deal of time covering receiver Demarcus Robinson. Robinson torched Kentucky for 15 catches, 216 yards and two touchdowns last season, but Westry hadn't yet joined the program. Maybe he's the answer this defense needed.
What They're Saying
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Florida
McElwain on lashing out against Taylor, per ESPN.com:
"I'm not proud about it, and neither is my mother. I don't feel good about it. As you know, this is a very public job. This is a public thing that we do. I understand that I have a long ways to go and I make mistakes. ...
Am I proud of it? Absolutely not. Do I feel bad about it? Yes. At the same time, I've got to understand my mistakes as well and learn from it and go forward.
"
Linebacker Jarrad Davis on Florida's slow start against East Carolina, per Chris Henry of GatorZone.com:
"We got comfortable [after Week 1]. We were really lazy on Monday, as a team. Guys weren’t getting taped. Guys were late to the meeting. [Coach] ripped us. It showed in the game. We started slow. We should have come out and really lit up the scoreboard on these guys. But we started slow and they hung around with us.
"
Kentucky
Head coach Mark Stoops on whether last year's Florida game will affect his players, per quotes released by the school:
"I don’t think it will affect them very much. As I said a week ago with South Carolina, one year to the next shouldn’t matter. If anything I think our players know that we have moved beyond the belief, we know we can play. It’s just a matter of attention to detail.
The big message this week is worrying about us continuing to get fundamentally better. That’s what’s always going to carry you. You can’t talk your way around wins you just have to get better and continue to push forward. That’s what we are looking forward to this week. It’s always easier to get them motivated after a good win, so now we just have to put some days together.
"
Stoops on whether the Wildcats play tight against Florida, against whom they've lost 28 straight games, per the same source:
"I really, I can’t speak to that to the 28 years. I can only speak to the years that I’ve been here and like I said we need to just worry about ourselves. We know we can play with Florida I said it a year ago and I just felt like we were getting better and had some opportunities and this year again we have great respect for Florida obviously. They’ve been a great program for a long time and we really just concentrate on ourselves and getting better and doing the work and preparing to go win the game.
The streak really doesn’t bother me. You know it doesn’t bother me. Somebody asked me if I’m going to touch on it, or rant and rave, there’s nothing to talk about on that. If it bothers some player and gives him some form of motivation to do extra then so be it, but I’m just worried about our team constantly doing those things to put ourselves in a position to win. We need to be disciplined in our approach all the time.
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Prediction
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Florida and Kentucky have trended opposite directions the past two seasons, but the Gators remain a three-point road favorite.
The Wildcats have improved in their three years under Stoops, but they still have a lot of growing up to do in the trenches, and a win over South Carolina—a team I am patently low on—does not convince me they are ready to be SEC East contenders.
I'm not sure the Gators are ready to be SEC East contenders either, but I like their talent more than Kentucky's. Ultimately, I still think talent wins out. Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings rank the Gators No. 43 in the country and the Wildcats No. 73.
For the time being, I'll side with that.
Prediction: Florida 28, Kentucky 24
Note: All recruiting info refers to 247Sports' composite rankings.
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