Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans: Full Houston Game 1 Preview
Right now every team in the NFL has the same record.
Most fanbases at this point probably feel a sense of hope that their team might produce a better season than expected and possibly even make it to the Super Bowl.
Not every fanbase can realistically share that positive outlook, but for the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans there are certainly plenty of reasons for optimism.
Both teams finished last season with a winning record of 9-7, but missed out on the playoffs by one game.
Going by the trend—every season since 1990—of at least four non-playoff teams from one season making the playoffs in the following year, the Chiefs and Texans would seem to be leading candidates for one of those AFC spots.
Not only did the two teams finish with identical records last season, but both also built their team similarly around a star running back, stifling defense and a veteran journeyman at quarterback whom they’re hoping can at least avoid costly mistakes.
Some of the names have changed on the team jerseys from last season until now, but the formula will remain the same.
While a lone loss from Week 1 wouldn’t be enough to doom an entire season obviously, neither team likely has the talent to overcome losing many 50/50 games if they want to make the playoffs.
“The O will have to go” for either the Texans or Chiefs after Sunday.
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston
Time: Noon CT/1 p.m. ET
TV: Local—CBS KHOU Channel 11
Preseason Week 4 Results and Recap
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The Texans dropped a close game to the Dallas Cowboys on the road during Week 4 of the pre-season to finish 2-2 during the exhibition portion of their schedule.
Like every other year, the fourth game was mostly used to evaluate young players and decide position battles for the final few spots on the 53-man roster.
One of the players who was likely on the bubble going into the game was receiver Keshawn Martin. The former fourth-round pick out of Michigan State helped his cause with five receptions, including a 16-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Tom Savage.
Speaking of Savage he had another solid game, completing 62 percent of his passes, with two touchdowns, but unfortunately he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury late in the game.
The Texans decided to keep only two quarterbacks on the 53-man roster after Savage's injury, so whomever the final player on the roster was—maybe Martin—got a bit lucky with the injury to the second-year quarterback.
Other Texans' standouts from the game include Justin Tuggle and Kourtnei Brown who combined for 12 tackles and one-and-a-half sacks against the Cowboys.
Overall, looking at the entire preseason, one of the concerns many fans had after Arian Foster's injury was obviously how well they'd be able to run the ball during his absence. As a team the Texans rushed for a disappointing 2.8 yards per carry, so those concerns haven't been answered.
Looking for a couple of silver linings—whatever preseason silver linings are worth—the Texans won the turnover and time-of-possession battles over their four exhibition games; both stats will be very important to the success of a team with a limited offense.
News and Notes
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Louis Nix Fails Physical With New York Giants
Unfortunately, the failures of middle-round draft picks have become a punch line with the Texans.
The latest example comes from 2014 third-round pick Louis Nix III. While many were surprised that he didn’t make the Texans' 53-man roster, perhaps some slack should be given to the front office after Nix also had a deal with the New York Giants fall through. ESPN's Field Yates noted Nix's failure to make the team:
"Source: DT Louis Nix failed his physical with the Giants. He goes back to the waiver system. Team also hosted TE Joseph Fauria on a visit.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 8, 2015"
The defensive tackle was expected to at least become a solid contributor and was seen by many—including myself—as a steal where the Texans ended up selecting him in the draft.
Injuries and perhaps struggling to find a spot behind Vince Wilfork could have certainly played a factor, but I think we can all agree that third-round draft picks don’t get cut in year two unless they’ve somehow ended up in the head coach’s doghouse.
Since failing the physical, Nix ending up signing with the Giants anyway. For his sake I hope he can turn his career in the right direction. ESPN's Dan Graziano highlighted the Giants "reaching an agreement" with Nix:
"It appears the Giants have reached some sort of arrangement with DT Louis Nix, who will join their team after all.
— Dan Graziano (@DanGrazianoESPN) September 9, 2015"
The Texans selected four players as third-round picks in the 2013 and 2014 drafts; only C.J. Fiedorowicz remains on the roster, and he had just four catches last season.
Their second- and fourth-round picks from 2013—D.J. Swearinger and Trevardo Williams—are also no longer with the team, which helps explain why the depth at many positions is so poor.
Offensive Guard Xavier Su'a-Filo Still Not Ready To Play
If you've listened to sports talk radio in Houston for more than a couple of minutes or visited a fan blog once or twice, then you probably already know that the patience of the fanbase with 2014 second-round pick Xavier Su'a-Filo is running short.
The former UCLA Bruin joined the team late last season and missed a big chunk of OTAs and minicamp while finishing up school; UCLA is on the quarter system. While wanting to finish up your education is certainly understandable, he was never quite able to catch up last year.
Combine that with some injuries and an odd decision to shuffle him around to different positions along the offensive line during preseason last year and 2014 ended up being mostly a waste for Su'a-Filo.
Once again during this year's training camp and preseason Su'a-Filo has been sidelined with an injury and will most likely not play in the opening game against Kansas City. According to HoustonTexans.com's Deepi Sidhu, Su'a Filo is "day-to-day":
"Right now, LG Xavier Su'a-Filo is day-to-day. O'Brien not optimistic that he'll be healthy to play Sunday vs. Chiefs. #Texans
— Deepi Sidhu (@DeepSlant) September 9, 2015"
If that remains true, veteran guard Jeff Adams will take his place in the starting lineup.
From Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle, coach Bill O'Brien said of Adams, "Very bright guy, very smart guy, can play four out of the five spots. He’s a very versatile guy, very dependable."
The Kansas City Chiefs finished 2014 with the league's fifth-most sacks, so whoever starts at left guard better be ready for a challenge.
Star Power Of Hard Knocks
The hit HBO show always produces interesting content each year, but the 2015 version featuring the Houston Texans was one of the best seasons to date. The Houston Chronicle's David Barron shared just how popular the show is utilizing viewership data:
"#HardKnocks Ep. 4 on HBO drew season-high 933,000 viewers, the most since 2012 Dolphins episode in which Chad Johnson was released. #Texans
— David Barron (@dfbarron) September 2, 2015 "
"Through four episodes, #HardKnocks is averaging 870,000 viewers, up 30% from 667K for four Falcons shows last year. #Texans
— David Barron (@dfbarron) September 2, 2015"
To recap the entire five-episode season in this short space would be impossible, but beyond entertaining fans it also made a little money for Charles James II:
"Happy to be apart of the @Nike family! #JustDoIt
— Charles James II (@ShutDownCB1) September 9, 2015"
It also turned many celebrities and media members into huge fans of head coach Bill O'Brien:
"Would've loved to have played for Bill O'Brien. One of the best shows on TV. #HardKnocks #HBO #Texans #NoBullshit pic.twitter.com/XAkC4ByHm1
— Dwayne Johnson (@TheRock) August 27, 2015 "
"Loved Hard Knocks on @HBO this year. Can't imagine Bill O'Brien not succeeding in NFL.
— John Buccigross (@Buccigross) September 9, 2015"
I'm confident he'll succeed in Houston, but it sure seems like he'll have no problem finding another job if things don't work out. The Houston Chronicle's Brian T. Smith shared O'Brien comments regarding the show:
"Bill O'Brien said this was one of the best days of his life because the #HardKnocks cameras left. Rivals wedding, birth of children. #Texans
— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) September 7, 2015"
O'Brien probably never wants to participate in the show again, but I, like many others, really enjoyed this season.
Latest Injury News
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| Tom Savage | Shoulder | IR |
| David Quessenberry | Illness | IR |
| Reshard Cliett | Knee | IR |
| Benardrick McKinney | Knee | Out |
| Arian Foster | Groin | Out |
| Lonnie Ballentine | Knee | Questionable |
| Duane Brown | Thumb | Probable |
| Jadeveon Clowney | Knee | Probable |
Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com
No surprises here with the injury report going into Week 1 of the 2015 season.
With Jadeveon Clowney and Duane Brown very likely to play, the only two players on this list who will miss the game who would have been counted on as contributors are obviously Arian Foster and Benardrick McKinney.
Losing Foster is a big blow with the lack of talent behind him at running back, but the Texans had over a month to prepare for how best to handle his absence.
The same can't be said for the rookie McKinney, but the Texans have quality depth at inside linebacker and it's not like we should have expected much from him in his first career NFL game either.
Over the last several years, the Texans have had to deal with some awful injury problems, but health or the lack thereof shouldn't be an excuse for this Week 1 game against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The offense could struggle without Foster, but every other major contributor is ready to go, and the defense should be in for a great year, so there's no reason why the Texans can't compete with and defeat the Chiefs at NRG Stadium.
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Key Matchups
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J.J. Watt and Vince Wilfork Against A Patchwork Chiefs Offensive Line
Obviously two All-Pros like Wilfork and Watt don’t need much help from the other team to be able to take care of business, but two of the best at their position in the league could have an even greater advantage than we’re used to seeing.
That potential advantage comes from a Chiefs' offensive line that has been shuffled around during the preseason and will have some huge question marks coming into the opening game of the 2015 season.
Per Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle, coach Bill O’Brien talked about having to search for tape on players who don’t have much experience:
"You’re going to have to go back and try to watch some games, watch some times when they’ve done that. You know, it’ll be hard to find because it hasn’t happened a whole lot, but you’re going to have to go back and try to find that.
"
Disappointing former top overall pick Eric Fisher has been shifted to the right side where he’ll face off against Watt, while Wilfork will get the privilege of facing rookie Mitch Morse at center.
Throw in their right guard who will also be making his NFL debut and it could be a long day for Alex Smith.
Texans Corners vs. Chiefs Wide Receivers
By now most people know the Chiefs pulled off what I thought was an impossible negative feat in this era of pass-happy offenses by not having a single wide receiver catch a touchdown pass during the 2014 season.
Not a single one! I know, still seems hard to believe.
To help fix that problem the Chiefs signed receiver Jeremy Maclin from the Philadelphia Eagles. Maclin in his first full, healthy season since 2010 posted career highs in all three major stats, with 85 receptions for 1,318 yards and 10 receiving touchdowns.
Maclin will be a challenge for every NFL secondary, but the Texans have arguably one of the league's deepest and most talented cornerback groups.
We all know Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson are capable of playing at a high level, but going into this season the team also added a first round cornerback with Kevin Johnson who was impressive during the preseason.
The Texans have struggled to stay in front of speedy receivers such as T.Y. Hilton, but they’ve never been more equipped to take on a challenge like Maclin than they are this year.
Those corners will have to be trusted enough to leave in one-on-one coverage without safety help for much of the game because the safeties will have their hands full with the Chiefs' excellent receiving tight end Travis Kelce.
Matchup X-Factors
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Texans X-Factor of the Week: Jadeveon Clowney
To put it simply: If the 2015 Jadeveon Clowney is the Jadeveon Clowney the Texans hoped they were getting when they made him the top overall selection of the 2014 draft, then their defense will be scary-good.
We already know that his teammate J.J. Watt is an unstoppable sack machine, and new addition Vince Wilfork will also command double-teams at nose tackle, so if Clowney can produce the jaw-dropping pressure he showed at South Carolina look out NFL.
If Watt, Wilfork and Clowney all play up to their capabilities, how can any team block that? I feel very confident that the first two guys will show up consistently, so it all falls on Clowney and the health of his knee.
The Texans won't likely be a high-scoring team this season and could struggle for points against a talented Kansas City Chiefs defense in Week 1, so Clowney and the Texans defense will have to carry most of the team's load to win.
This play, which was featured on Hard Knocks, shows Clowney is closer to being back than many people realized (via PDS):
"The Clowney Clip from Hard Knocks. #Texans https://t.co/rXT9JP2Rr0
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 9, 2015"
That wasn't some journeyman or rookie Clowney blew by; that was three-time Pro Bowl and one-time first-team All-Pro left tackle Duane Brown. Just flew by him like he was wearing concrete shoes; incredible.
So I'll ask again: If Clowney is back to making plays like that, how will Alex Smith or any other quarterback the Texans face survive?
Prediction: Texans 17, Chiefs 13
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I'll let Texans defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel fill you in on why you should watch this game (via HoustonTexans.com's Drew Dougherty):
""People who like pass rushing...they'll enjoy the game."-DC Romeo Crennel on #Texans vs. Chiefs.
— Drew Dougherty (@DoughertyDrew) September 9, 2015"
How good are the pass-rushers in this game? Both the Texans' J.J. Watt and the Chiefs' Justin Houston finished with more sacks last season as individuals than the Cincinnati Bengals did as an entire team.
Look out quarterbacks, it could be a long day for you, guys.
Both teams' offensive line and quarterback play is shaky and questionable at times, so I expect the defenses to control this game.
Tough game to pick and it could go either way, but at home I'll take the Texans defense to make a few more plays and carry the team to victory.
Prediction: Texans 17, Chiefs 13
Follow me on Twitter for more Texans analysis: @sackedbybmac
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