Jacksonville State vs. Auburn Complete Game Preview
After a Jekyll and Hyde win against Louisville in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game, Auburn will get a chance to tighten things up Saturday in its home opener against in-state FCS foe Jacksonville State.
Auburn's new-look defense under Will Muschamp posted a first-half shutout last week and forced a pair of big turnovers that led to touchdowns, but the electrifying performance of the Cardinals' new starting quarterback led to a late flurry of points from Louisville.
Meanwhile, the offense surprised with a subpar performance from new starting quarterback Jeremy Johnson but breakouts from several other Tigers, including a previously underutilized running back.
Jacksonville State will provide an opportunity for Auburn to make improvements and record that first home victory—but the Gamecocks have a little more firepower than the average FCS opponent.
Before we break down Auburn's first game at Jordan-Hare Stadium in the "big, really big" video board era, here's the basic info for Saturday's early kickoff on the Plains.
Date: Saturday, September 12
Time: Noon ET (11 a.m. local time)
Location: Auburn, Alabama (Jordan-Hare Stadium)
TV: SEC Network
Line: None available, according to Odds Shark
Jacksonville State Keys to Victory
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Keep Auburn's defense off balance
Last week against Louisville, Auburn allowed 106 rushing yards and one touchdown to freshman quarterback Lamar Jackson. During the second half, Jackson was more than a handful for the Tigers defense as he used his speed to escape a pass rush that was limited by an injury to Carl Lawson.
This week, Jacksonville State will start dual-threat quarterback Eli Jenkins, a redshirt junior from Birmingham, Alabama, who has started 20 games for the Gamecocks in his relatively short collegiate career. Jenkins has decent size at 6'2" and 205 pounds, and he ran for 1,651 yards and 14 touchdowns in his first two seasons with the program.
Containing dual-threat quarterbacks was a problem for Auburn under the leadership of former defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson, and Jackson exploited that last Saturday in the Georgia Dome.
While Jacksonville State's offensive line should struggle in pass protection against Auburn, Jenkins will get some opportunities to scramble for big gains if the Tigers have trouble with containment again.
With Jenkins and top running back Troymaine Pope leading the way on the ground—Jacksonville State averaged 285.3 rushing yards per game last season, per Brandon Marcello of AL.com—the Gamecocks will look to draw the Auburn defense closer. If it overpursues, Jenkins can take off or look for a big pass downfield.
Pressure Jeremy Johnson
It's no secret Johnson struggled last week against Louisville's defense. The Auburn junior threw three interceptions because of bad decision-making and could have easily had another pick if it wasn't for a drop by the Cardinals.
"I think early on he was a little greedy," Malzahn said Monday, per James Crepea of AL.com. "We took a few chances downfield into coverage; he's wanting to make a big play. That just comes with experience—take what they give you, and I really feel like he'll improve and he'll definitely do that in the future."
Johnson will look to atone for his mistakes Saturday against Jacksonville State. But if he tries to do too much and forces passes again, the Gamecocks can keep themselves in the game with turnovers.
That success will start up front with a great pass rush by FCS standards. Jacksonville State has former Auburn defensive lineman Devaunte Sigler, the Ohio Valley Conference's defending Defensive Player of the Year, on its roster, along with another past Tiger in Chris Landrum.
Sigler and Landrum combined for 17.5 tackles for loss last season and would probably love nothing more than to have a few more against their former team. Making things tougher on Johnson will be a key for the Gamecocks, especially after the junior's down debut last week.
Auburn Keys to Victory
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Don't let them hang around
This would be the first chapter of a textbook on power teams playing programs from the FCS level—if you let a big underdog hang around, unrest throughout the stadium will set in, and that's when things start to go sideways.
With the way Auburn finished the Louisville game last weekend, the Tigers need to come out and drop the hammer on the Gamecocks early. They need to make it clear that this game will be nothing more than an easy tuneup before the SEC opener at LSU next week.
And this is especially important against a team like Jacksonville State, which is ranked No. 6 in the FCS and received a first-place vote in the subdivision this week. As Michael Niziolek of the (Columbus) Ledger-Enquirer noted in his scouting report of Jacksonville State, the Ohio Valley program has experience with making SEC teams sweat.
"Jacksonville State has an upset over a SEC team on its resume. The Gamecocks beat Ole Miss 49-48 in double overtime back in 2010 with a two-point conversion," Niziolek wrote. "In 2012, JSU kept within striking distance of No. 10-ranked Arkansas for two-and-a-half quarters. ... Teams from the OVC have knocked off one FBS school in four of the past five seasons."
Of course, a loss for Auburn here would be on the all-time level of Appalachian State's upset over Michigan in 2007. The Gamecocks won't beat the Tigers, but staying in the game would be quite frustrating for those in Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Tighten up
As the old coaching cliche goes, teams usually make their biggest improvements in a season between Week 1 and Week 2.
Since Auburn started the season with a challenge, the improvements will come against a big underdog. The Tigers won't necessarily find the takeaways on the scoreboard but by how much they tighten up their game from the season opener.
One important key will be establishing confidence in Johnson before a trip to rowdy Baton Rouge on Sept. 19. If he can deliver a turnover-free game for Auburn with better decision-making, the Tigers will call that a success.
Limiting penalties—Auburn had a lot of them against Louisville, including a rough holding call against Braden Smith that erased a Johnson touchdown bomb—will also be pivotal. Four Auburn offensive linemen were called for holding in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game.
Look for Auburn to emphasize these offensive areas while continuing to improve its overall defensive game under Muschamp. A blowout is the most likely outcome, but that can look a lot of different ways.
Jacksonville State Players to Watch
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QB Eli Jenkins
Jacksonville State has nine returning starters on the offensive side of the ball, and none is more important than Jenkins. The signal-caller is a two-time first-team All-OVC selection and will be in the running for some national player of the year honors if the Gamecocks can continue to fly high in 2015.
Jenkins had 146 yards of total offense last weekend against fellow FCS powerhouse Chattanooga, and he completed two-thirds of his passes in the JSU victory. He'll want to have a better showing than his last performance against an FBS school—Jenkins tossed two interceptions last year in a 45-7 loss to Michigan State.
The JSU quarterback's legs will bring an extra dimension to the offense, one that loves to run the ball and create big plays. Jenkins will definitely be the visitors' top player to keep an eye on Saturday.
DE Devaunte Sigler
The aforementioned Sigler will undoubtedly get attention Saturday from the media who cover the game. The Mobile, Alabama, native was dismissed from Auburn for a violation of team rules in March 2013 and later transferred to Jacksonville State.
He excelled at the FCS level last season, starring for the Gamecocks defense in a big win over Chattanooga early in the campaign. Sigler led JSU's defensive linemen with 36 tackles, nine for a loss and 3.5 sacks and was his conference's Defensive Player of the Year.
Sigler has formed a good partnership with Landrum on the Jacksonville State defensive line—another experienced unit on a team that has plenty of veterans from front to back.
CB Jermaine Hough
In addition to Sigler, Hough was a preseason pick on the FCS Defensive Player of the Year watch list, per Niziolek. He was a third-team All-American (Sports Network) last season and picked off four passes, despite missing several games with a knee injury.
Hough and the rest of the Jacksonville State secondary will be tested by an Auburn passing game looking to improve in this tuneup game. The senior Georgia native is ready for the challenge.
"I don't try to look at who I am going up against, I try each week to do what I do best and focus on my technique on each and every play," Hough told the program's official website. "If I do my job and do what my coaches tell me to do, then I think it will be a great matchup."
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Auburn Players to Watch
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QB Jeremy Johnson
The massive amounts of hype surrounding Johnson's junior season cooled during last Saturday's three-interception performance against Louisville. While people around the country jumped off the bandwagon, it's not time to count out the Auburn quarterback.
Johnson delivered some excellent throws in the win over the Cardinals—including a beautiful deep touchdown pass to Jason Smith that was called back for a Braden Smith holding penalty. That penalty was a game-changer, as Auburn went from a potential 31-3 lead to a different kind of contest with Johnson's pick a few plays later.
Saturday will be about getting Johnson's confidence back before he faces a stingy LSU pass defense inside Tiger Stadium. Look for him to establish his rhythm again.
The running backs
With starter Roc Thomas and backup Jovon Robinson both going down in the Louisville game with minor injuries, sophomore Peyton Barber got his first major opportunity out of the Auburn backfield Saturday. He had 24 carries for 115 yards and excelled in pass protection for the Tigers.
Barber's breakout performance has thrown the established pecking order of running backs on the Plains for a loop yet again. If Auburn decides to limit Thomas and Robinson against Jacksonville State, Barber could take advantage in what offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee called an open competition.
"Well, it's too early to call as far as competition," Lashlee said, per Marcello. "We're going to need them all. Just like [Saturday] night, two of them dropped in one drive, so you never know in this league what will happen."
DE Carl Lawson
Against Louisville, Auburn's defense looked completely different from last season with the pass-rushing prowess of Carl Lawson on the field. He provided the pressure on Lamar Jackson's game-opening interception and was constantly in the Cardinals backfield.
And his impact was evident again when he went down with a hip pointer injury. Without Lawson on the field, Jackson had more opportunities to step up and scramble for big yards against the Tigers.
According to John Zenor of the Associated Press, Malzahn said Tuesday he expects all injured players—including Lawson—to play against Jacksonville State. Watch how much the defense changes with and without the superstar sophomore on the field.
What They're Saying
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Jacksonville State
Head coach John Grass on comparing Auburn to 2014 opponent Michigan State, per the program's official website:
"You are talking about two great programs that are well coached and both have great players. They are big, fast and everything you want from that standpoint. Schematically they are really good and defensively, Michigan State was really solid. With (Will) Muschamp coming back to Auburn, they will be great defensively, as well, and (Gus) Malzahn does a great job with the offense. Auburn is definitely a top-10, if not top-five team in the country at the FBS level.
"
Cornerback Jermaine Hough on facing Auburn:
"It is a great opportunity to face an SEC team, and I truly believe that if don't let them dictate what we do, I think we can play a great game. This is a stage where we can show what we can do as a team and as individuals. With the coaches behind us with a great game plan, I think we can go in there with the mindset of playing a great game.
"
Defensive end Chris Landrum, who started his career at Auburn, on returning to the Plains:
"It will be fun and it will be emotional, but after the first snap it will be football again. I had a good time there and at the end of the day, I am happy with the decision I made to transfer. I met a lot of great people when I moved to Jacksonville and I have had a great time since I have been here.
"
Auburn
Head coach Gus Malzahn on Jacksonville State, per Brandon Marcello of AL.com:
"You turn on the film, they'll get your attention... Their defense is one of the best in their division. They're used to winning, I think that's the biggest thing. they went 11-2 last year... It will be a good one.
"
Offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee on quarterback Jeremy Johnson, per James Crepea of AL.com:
"Overall, when he threw the ball, I think he threw a lot of accurate balls and did a nice job. It was probably just three or four bad decisions that we'd like to have back. And we're going to learn from them. ... At this point, it's one game. He's still undefeated as a starter. He's our guy. Can't do anything about (the interceptions Saturday); let's go win the next one.
"
Right guard Braden Smith on his new position and the offensive line's play against Louisville, per Tom Green of the Opelika-Auburn News:
"Definitely a new experience, but after the first series, it was just like another day in the park... It was a good starting point, but it’s definitely not where we want to be. You’ve got to start somewhere, and then you work off that and get better.
"
Prediction
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Picking scores for games is never easy, especially for ones that don't have official lines. Contests against FCS opponents have the tendency to be much closer than expected or complete blowouts, with little in between.
In the Malzahn era, Auburn has smashed an awful 2013 Western Carolina team 62-3 and posted a respectable 31-7 victory over a decent 2014 Samford program. In 2010 and 2011, when Malzahn was the offensive coordinator, the Tigers put up 62 points on Chattanooga and 35 against Samford.
Jacksonville State isn't your average FCS opponent, though. The Gamecocks are one of the nation's best in the junior division and brought back 16 starters this season. They can move the ball effectively on the ground and have been able to get after quarterbacks.
However, this team didn't come close to competing with Michigan State in 2014. While the Spartans have a much better defense than the Tigers, it's hard to envision Jacksonville State pulling an Eastern Washington and hanging a bunch of touchdowns on Auburn.
The Tigers will focus on getting injured players back to full speed, establishing more confidence in the offense after a shaky opener and showcasing more improvement on defense. Jacksonville State's better-than-expected offense will get two touchdowns on Auburn—including a possible garbage-time one against the reserves—but that's it.
Prediction: Auburn 55, Jacksonville State 14
All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruit rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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