College Football Week 2 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
This is why you need to shop the number.
I started the the season with a solid 11-7 week against the spread, but I could have gone 13-5 if not for Virginia covering by one point at UCLA and SMU covering by a half-point against Baylor. Had I wagered real money and taken the Bruins minus-19 and the Bears minus-35.5 without shopping for a better line, my laziness would have been my undoing.
Of course it hardly matters for this article, where I play the Westgate Las Vegas line (via Odds Shark) at 11:00 p.m. Monday evening for every game with a Top 25 team. It's not like I can choose my favorite number. Still, the small margin between covering those games and losing them paints a good lesson for any handicapper.
Every half of every digit counts.
But let's move past that. I'll happily start the year with an 11-7 record, which checks in at 61 percent. Anything over 60, if sustained throughout the season, would be incredible. My personal goal is 57.
Feel free to chime in below with your opinion or with questions about the picks. I'll explain my rationale beneath each game, but of course we can always dive deeper. Just remember to keep it civil because, like, what's the point in yelling on a comment board?
As always: We are all on the same team here. The line is our only enemy.
Note: Top 25 rankings refer to the Associated Press Poll. All Week 1 spreads via Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com.
Utah State at No. 24 Utah
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The Line: Utah (-13.5)
The Battle of Brothers resumes after a one-year hiatus.
Before that interruption, the Utes and Aggies had played consecutive thrillers, with Utah winning 30-26 two seasons ago and Utah State winning 27-20 in overtime the season prior.
Utah State quarterback Chuckie Keeton played in both of those games, albeit before a pair of ACL tears. He looked rusty (and that's being generous) against Southern Utah in Week 1, completing 16 of 33 passes for 110 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception, but the defense bailed him out en route to an ugly 12-9 win.
Keeton is too good to remain a liability, but there's not much to like around him. The offensive line looked lost without left tackle Kevin Whimpey (graduated), and the receivers found no room without Hunter Sharp (suspension) and Brandon Swindall (Achilles recovery). Whimpey is no longer with the program, Sharp will miss one more game and Swindall is questionable for Friday.
Meanwhile, Utah rides high into this game after proving it's not a cupcake to Michigan. With any other small-conference opponent, it might be at risk for a letdown, but the Utes know what to expect from Utah State. This has blossomed into a legitimate rivalry, and it's important for them to send another message.
I can't back a team with blocking issues against Utah's front seven.
The Pick: Utah (-13.5)
Hawaii at No. 1 Ohio State
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The Line: Ohio State (-38)
Part of me really wants to take Hawaii, since I know the whole world will be on Ohio State, and I know 38 points is ridiculous, and I know Hawaii is kinda sorta decent. It's rare for a team that just beat a Pac-12 opponent to lay more than five touchdowns the next week.
But then I think about Ohio State's second unit—the one led by quarterback J.T. Barrett, who finished No. 2 in the country in QB rating last season, and whom I maintain will be an NFL starter. With Dontre Wilson, Jalin Marshall and Corey Smith returning from suspension, many of the skill players who featured in Monday's win over Virginia Tech will join Barrett on the second string.
So once Cardale Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, Braxton Miller and the rest of the first-team offense take a big enough lead to rest—probably around 30-35 points—the unit replacing them would still be the best in Hawaii's conference, the Mountain West, by a sizable margin. That makes me feel better about laying the 38 points.
So does getting Joey Bosa back on defense—the best player in college football will be amped for his first game of the season, even if it's against Hawaii instead of Virginia Tech—and the fact that Ohio State beat Kent State 66-0 in nonconference play last season.
It's a square play, but whatever. I'll take the Buckeyes.
The Pick: Ohio State (-38)
No. 9 Notre Dame at Virginia
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The Line: Notre Dame (-11)
Beware the Letdown-Lookahead Sandwich.
Notre Dame thumped Texas in Week 1 and has an even bigger game against Georgia Tech in Week 3. Most teams would sandwich a cupcake between those opponents, but Notre Dame's FBS Independence and partial-ACC membership made that difficult. Instead, it will play Virginia.
Mike London's team held strong at UCLA—despite an all-world performance by Bruins quarterback Josh Rosen—and covered a 19-point spread. Rosen picked the Cavaliers apart, but the secondary wasn't getting toasted; it was there, you just can't defend perfect passes.
Last year Virginia lost to UCLA in Week 1, but then beat Louisville two weeks later. I'll almost never bet against a strong defense getting double-digits at home, and I'm even more keen after learning that 83 percent of bets are on Notre Dame, according to Sports Insights.
The Irish looked like the best team in the country in Week 1, and public bettors are flocking to them accordingly. I don't think that what they did against the Longhorns was a fluke, I just hate picking such an obvious public side.
The Pick: Virginia (+11)
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No. 10 Georgia at Vanderbilt
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The Line: Georgia (-20)
So it turns out Vanderbilt has a defense.
The Commodores lost their season opener to Western Kentucky, but that was supposed to happen; even on its home field, Derek Mason's team was a short underdog. What wasn't supposed to happen was the stifling of Western Kentucky's offense, which last year averaged 534.6 yards per game and 7.05 yards per play. Vanderbilt held it to 246 and 4.64, respectively.
Georgia is obviously better than Western Kentucky, but like I said regarding Notre Dame at Virginia: I rarely bet against a strong defense getting double-digit points at home, and I like to fade the public (87 percent of bets on Georgia, according to Sports Insights) whenever possible.
New Georgia quarterback Greyson Lambert showed well at Florida State last season, but in his other three road games against quality competition, he averaged 5.4 yards per attempt at BYU, threw two interceptions at Georgia Tech and posted a 47 percent completion rate at Virginia Tech. His new weapons are better than the weapons he had at Virginia, but I trust Mason to devise a solid game plan, get in Lambert's face and force some discouraging throws.
The Pick: Vanderbilt (+20)
Toledo at No. 18 Arkansas
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The Line: Arkansas (21.5)
Toledo was a trendy underdog against an SEC team (Missouri) last season. Even though the game was in Columbia, Toledo's strong offensive line and running game, combined with Missouri's offensive questions, made the Rockets a seductive play.
Then the game started, and Toledo got housed, 49-24. Its offense found modest success against a very good SEC defense, but it defense was overrun by an above-average SEC offense.
Arkansas has the opposite: an above-average SEC defense and a very good SEC offense. Only this year Toledo loses all five starters on the offensive line, whereas last year all five returned. Kareem Hunt is still in the backfield, but how much will that matter if Arkansas owns the point of attack?
I love what Arkansas did in nonconference play last season, when it steamrolled Texas Tech and eventual MAC champion Northern Illinois. This year it gets a slightly worse MAC team and should find similar success. I wish I could have picked this earlier, before it moved from minus-21 to minus-21.5, but I still think the Razorbacks will cover.
The Pick: Arkansas (-21.5)
No. 22 Arizona at Nevada
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The Line: Arizona (-11.5)
Normally when a team plays one bad game, and then the next week's line reflects that, I call it an overreaction.
Finding overreactions is the pith of my betting philosophy because recency bias creates value. I want to pick teams when the public remembers what's wrong with them, not what's right with them, and drives up the price of their opponents.
The reigning Pac-12 South champion laying 11.5 points at Nevada feels short. The question is whether that's a certified overreaction. The Wildcats didn't struggle for no reason in a 10-point home win over UTSA; they struggled because they couldn't make a stop after the best linebacker in college football, Scooby Wright III, left with a knee injury.
But I still think this line is reactionary because of the timing of when Wright left. He was injured in the first quarter, which forced Arizona to adjust on the fly and deflated it for most of the game. With a full week to prepare for Wright's absence, it should improve both physically and mentally.
"The biggest thing (we need) is to get the guys that are filling in for injuries prepared," safety Will Parks said in quotes released by the school. "For us veterans, it means taking our leadership role to another level to try to get these guys ready."
Arizona won by seven points, 35-28, when it hosted Nevada last season, but that game was more lopsided than it looked. According to Bill Connelly of SB Nation, the adjusted scoring margin was 23.7.
Quarterback Anu Solomon looked healthy last week against UTSA and should outplay Nevada's Tyler Stewart, who replaced four-year starter Cody Fajardo. Look for Arizona to make a statement.
The Pick: Arizona (-11.5)
No. 19 Oklahoma at No. 23 Tennessee
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The Line: PK
Tennessee did more or less what I hoped for against Bowling Green, struggling on defense and looking slightly less dominant than it did in last year's season opener against Utah State.
Now it has a pick'em against Oklahoma, and roughly 70 percent of bets have been for the Sooners, according to Sports Insights.
I bought hard on Tennessee's offseason hype and saw nothing last week to convince me that was wrong; Bowling Green's offense is legitimately really good, and the ease with which Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara ran through its defense was encouraging.
As for Oklahoma, I just think it's a touch overrated. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has played one true road game against a power-conference defense (2013 Texas), and he finished that game with a sub-100 QB rating. Mayfield played for Texas Tech that season, was benched for the bowl win over Arizona State and then transferred to Oklahoma in the winter.
I'm just not sure he's ready to start a big game in Neyland Stadium—a venue whose effect has been overrated the past five years, but which will get up for its biggest game in…well, five years.
The Pick: Tennessee (PK)
No. 7 Oregon at No. 5 Michigan State
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The Line: Michigan State (-3.5)
This game opened near a pick'em but has been bet to Michigan State minus-3.5.
It's easy to see why the public would value Michigan State at home against a team with a new quarterback who left his first game with a head injury and a defense that just allowed 42 points against an FCS opponent. Sparty had its own struggles at Western Michigan, but its defense looked better than the Ducks', if nothing else.
Still, Oregon deserves more respect than it's getting. A three-point line that values both teams (roughly) evenly would make more sense. Oregon did, after all, beat Michigan State 46-27 last season. Both teams have glaring secondary problems, but only the Ducks have a strong wide receiver group to take advantage. Michigan State's receivers are above-average at best.
Quarterback Vernon Adams looked sharp in his Oregon debut and confirmed he'll play in Week 2 after suffering that shakeup. More to the point, Royce Freeman and Oregon's playmakers look even stronger than they did last season, which is scary against a defense that misses far too many tackles and allows far too many big plays.
Sparty can still win this game, but every time I picture that happening, it happens on a last-second field goal. I'll gobble up that extra half-point.
The Pick: Oregon (+3.5)
No. 14 LSU at No. 25 Mississippi State
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The Line: LSU (-4)
Mississippi State looked mediocre in a Week 1 win at Southern Miss.
The Golden Eagles might be improved, and if they are, an 18-point road win is nothing to belittle. But if they're not, it's confirmation of why the media picked Mississippi State to finish last in the SEC West.
LSU's offense remains a giant unknown, and Week 1's cancellation against McNeese State didn't help. True sophomore quarterback Brandon Harris will not have a tuneup before starting his year with an SEC road night game.
But Harris played well in relief of Anthony Jennings when the Bulldogs beat the Tigers last season, completing six of nine passes for 140 yards, two touchdowns and one interception and nearly leading a massive fourth-quarter comeback. All things considered, it was the best game of his career.
And that was against a better Bulldogs defense.
The Pick: LSU (-4)
No. 20 Boise State at BYU
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The Line: Boise State (-3)
Boise State minus-12.5 against Washington was my favorite bet of Week 1, and even though the Broncos didn't cover, I still love what I saw from its defense (the reason I liked that bet in the first place).
I expected the offense to be better than it was, but quarterback Ryan Finley looked scattered in his first career start, and the offensive line became tired in the second half.
How much of that had to do with Washington, and how much concerned Boise State? The Huskies lost four top-50 draft picks from last year's defense but returned sophomore safety Budda Baker (who was awesome against the Broncos) and have Chris Petersen and Pete Kwiatkowski on the sideline. That defense might just be solid.
As scared as I am to back Finley in his first true road start against a competent opponent in a hostile environment, I still think Boise State is the better team. With Taysom Hill out for the season, Tanner Mangum will start at quarterback for BYU and become the second straight true freshman to have to play this Broncos defense.
Mangum is one of the best recruits in modern BYU history, but Washington quarterback Jake Browning ranked even higher out of high school, and the Broncos held him to 150 passing yards on 35 attempts and a quarterback rating of 87.43.
The Pick: Boise State (-3)
Other Top 25 Games
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Appalachian State at No. 12 Clemson (-17)
This line opened at Clemson minus-21 but has been bet down to 17. Part of that concerns the loss of wide receiver Mike Williams, but part of it is also sharp money. Clemson has taken 85 percent of spread bets, according to Sports Insights, which ostensibly means the line should be getting bigger. That it's shrinking means the pros must have Appalachian State—a phenomenon known as Reverse Line Movement. I'll ride with the Mountaineers to hang close.
The Pick: Appalachian State (+17)
South Florida at No. 11 Florida State (-28)
Here's another case of Reverse Line Movement. Florida State has been bet down from minus-29 to minus-28, but Sports Insights says it has received 78 percent of spread bets. It's more subtle in this game than the Clemson game, but it's there: The sharps like South Florida. USF has covered six of its last eight games as a road underdog, all of which have come since 2013. It can run and stop the run, which isn't much but enough to stay close.
The Pick: South Florida (+28)
Tulane at No. 15 Georgia Tech (-28.5)
Tulane has a sneaky-good run defense, which should help it stay close in Atlanta. It held the Yellow Jackets to 344 yards on 57 carries (6.04 YPC) in a 17-point home loss last season, which was just below their per-carry season average. It then held Duke to 4.20 yards per carry in Week 1, albeit in a 30-point loss. Even with that scoreline, the Green Wave do enough things well to make me feel comfortable taking them. Any team that fights hard against the run has a chance to stay close at Georgia Tech.
The Pick: Tulane (+28.5)
Fresno State at No. 17 Ole Miss (-28.5)
Fresno State was deceptively bad last season, winning its division despite losing eight games and ranking No. 102 on Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings. In three games against power-five opponents, it lost 52-13 at USC, 59-27 at Utah and 55-19 at home to Nebraska. It improved throughout the season (how could it not have?), but it still feels wrong to expect a competitive game at Ole Miss. The Rebels hit the ground running—literally—against Tennessee-Martin and should continue that momentum in Week 2.
The Pick: Ole Miss (-28.5)
Middle Tennessee State at No. 2 Alabama (-34.5)
Nick Saban yelled at reporters for treating this game like an afterthought, but he'd better save some rage for his team. Alabama draws Middle Tennessee State between Wisconsin and Ole Miss—a classic Letdown-Lookahead Sandwich—and can afford to take it easy once it leads. The Crimson Tide have covered only six of their last 20 nonconference games (with one push), which explains why we see more Reverse Line Movement, according to Sports Insights. Also, MTSU is one of the best teams in the Conference-USA.
The Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+34.5)
Ball State at No. 16 Texas A&M (-30)
Texas A&M has two good quarterbacks (Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray), the best foursome of receivers in the country (Josh Reynolds, Ricky Seals-Jones, Speedy Noil and Christian Kirk) and a head coach who knows how to use them (Kevin Sumlin). Ball State ranked No. 105 in the country against the pass last season, per Football Outsiders' S&P+ ratings, and just allowed more than 440 passing yards against FCS opponent VMI. Do I really need to add a third sentence?
The Pick: Texas A&M (-30)
No. 21 Missouri (-10.5) at Arkansas State
What to make of Arkansas State? I backed it at USC in Week 1, and no team disappointed me more. But the Reverse Line Movement here is obvious—Missouri has dropped from minus-13.5 to minus-10.5 despite receiving 78 percent of spread bets, per Sports Insights—and so is the potential for overreactions. Arkansas State is better than it looked last weekend, and Missouri (in my opinion) is worse. I guess I'll ride or die with the Red Devils.
The Pick: Arkansas State (+10.5)
Idaho at No. 8 USC (-43)
Forty-three is just so many points. I know I said something similar in this same space last week, and that I lost backing Arkansas State against the Trojans…but 43 is just so many points. Idaho at least has an offense, and I'm hoping it can punch in two touchdowns—even if it's after USC has stopped caring—to force the Trojans into needing more than 57 points to cover. Fifty-seven, also, is just so many points.
The Pick: Idaho (+43)
No. 13 UCLA (-28.5) at UNLV
Has a team that failed to cover its only game of the season ever enjoyed more momentum than UCLA? I personally like the Bruins as much as anybody, but they're still starting a true freshman in his first career road game against a team that's not as bad as it looks. UNLV covered with ease against Northern Illinois (-23) last weekend, losing by eight, 38-30, to the reigning MAC champion. It can stay within four touchdowns against a team that's 0-4 against the spread in its last four nonconference games (bowls excluded).
The Pick: UNLV (+28.5)
Week 1 Record: 11-7-0 (61.1%)
Overall Record: 11-7-0 (61.1%)
Brian Leigh covers college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @BLeigh35
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