Ball State vs. Texas A&M Complete Game Preview
For the second consecutive season, Texas A&M undressed a Top 15 opponent in Week 1, this time beating Arizona State 38-17 on a neutral field in Houston.
The game was closer than the final score indicated, but the Aggies were not a lick worse. Head coach Kevin Sumlin knows there's work to do on offense—where big plays by true freshman Kyler Murray and Christian Kirk helped mask some inefficiency—but the defense led by first-year coordinator John Chavis stole the show.
Now, the Aggies return home to play a Ball State team that is hoping for a rebound. After winning 10 games in 2013, the Cardinals dropped to 5-7 and missed a bowl last season. They opened the year with a 48-36 win over FCS opponent VMI…but that means they allowed 36 points to VMI.
A&M should have no trouble scoring.
Date: Saturday, September 12
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Kyle Field; College Station, Texas
TV: ESPNU
Line: Texas A&M -30, according to Odds Shark
Texas A&M Keys to Victory
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Pass Early, Pass Often
Ball State ranked No. 106 in the country in pass defense last season, according to Football Outsiders' S&P+ ratings. It was especially porous on standard downs, when it was forced to defend the box and could not drop extra bodies into coverage.
One game into the new season, those problems appear to persist. FCS opponent VMI hung 36 points on the Cardinals, completing 35 of 49 passes for 444 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Big-play receiver Dontae Mauck caught two passes for 131 yards, and No. 1 target Aaron Sanders caught 13 passes for 118 yards.
If that's what Mauck and Sanders did to Ball State's secondary, it's hard to picture Josh Reynolds, Ricky-Seals Jones, Speedy Noil and Christian Kirk—a foursome I think it's fair to call, objectively, the best receiver group in college football—doing anything less than torching it.
Put those guys on islands and let them get to work.
Avoid the Hangover
Playing a small-conference opponent after beating the No. 15 team in the country leaves A&M in a prime spot for a letdown.
It avoided the hangover last season after beating South Carolina, but that was against FCS Lamar. This is against legitimate competition—one of the most-consistent winning programs in the MAC. If you sleep at the wheel against Ball State, you won't win an easy game. At the very least, the Cardinals will make you sweat.
Sumlin needs to ensure his players know that. Drill it through their heads a hundred times. This is not Lamar; it's Ball State. It's a team that won 10 games two years ago!
This will not be as easy as it sounds!
Ball State Keys to Victory
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Reduce the Effect of A&M's Pressure
Texas A&M's defensive line looks dangerous. Like…dangerous enough to be illegal. Daeshon Hall and Myles Garrett forwarded mail to Arizona State's backfield, combining for six sacks on the game. How is any team supposed to block those guys?
Fortunately, Ball State has an answer. It may not be able to block them, but it can make that matter slightly less. Its offense relies on quick passing and has always resulted in low adjusted sack rates. Its game plan revolves around minimizing the impact of pressure.
More than that, Ball State returns five offensive line starters and 101 career OL starts. Together that group should form a decent shield for quarterback Jack Milas, who should get the ball out quickly and cleanly. He can find nearby receivers and let them challenge A&M where it struggled most last season: open-field tackling.
He can't get cute and hold onto the ball.
Force Timely Turnovers
Basically, this amounts to "get lucky" or at least to "be opportunistic." Either way, it's mostly out of Ball State's control.
Looking at this matchup, there's no sane way to think Ball State will stop Texas A&M's offense. Its secondary couldn't guard MAC teams last season, and it couldn't guard an FCS team last Saturday. How is it supposed to guard an offense filled with blue-chip prospects?
The Cardinals' only hope of ceding less than 35 points is forcing turnovers. They need to get their hat on the football, and then they need to get lucky and recover it. If there's a pass up for grabs, Ball State needs an interception and not just a breakup. It needs to take chances and not care whether that might lead to big plays.
A&M is going to score anyway.
Texas A&M Players to Watch
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QBs Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray
Kyle Allen looked meh against the Sun Devils, and true freshman Kyler Murray—while capable of moments of brilliance—struggled passing in his college debut. Saturday is a chance for each young quarterback to build confidence, pad stats and establish a pecking order against defensive backs who can't even pretend to guard their receivers. Will we learn more about the future divvying up of quarterback reps? There's only one way to find out.
CBs De'Vante Harris, Nick Harvey and Brandon Williams
De'Vante Harris, Nick Harvey and Brandon Williams showed well in their first game under Chavis, a noted defensive-back craftsman who made LSU and "DB U" synonymous. They'll be tested again by a strong group of Ball State receivers, led (in volume) by 6'3", 228-pound Jordan Williams and (in efficiency) by KeVonn Mabon. Cornerback has been a problem in College Station, so a second straight strong performance would go a long way in building confidence. It would prove Week 1 was not just a fluke.
WR Speedy Noil
Kirk is the flavor of the week after torching Arizona State for two long touchdowns. But let's not forget about Noil, who was basically the Kirk of last year's recruiting class, and how special he can be with the ball. Noil caught just one pass for 15 yards against the Sun Devils, so look for A&M to involve him early. It needs him to find a rhythm before the start of SEC play.
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Ball State Players to Watch
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OT Steven Bell
Steven Bell is a third-year starting tackle and was named to the Preseason All-MAC Second Team by Athlon Sports. He has the unenviable task of protecting Milas against Garrett, Hall and the rest of Texas A&M's edge-rushers. He doesn't have overwhelming size (6'4", 298 lbs) or athleticism, so he'll have to rely on experience, technique and toughness. Otherwise, he might end up on roller skates.
S Dedrick Cromartie
Dedrick Cromartie finished second on the team with two interceptions last season. Injuries forced him to play a big role as a true freshman, and although he (like the rest of the Cardinals) needs work in coverage, he at least showed flashes of big-play potential. Ball State can't beat A&M without getting some lucky bounces and forcing some timely turnovers. Cromartie has a chance to make it happen.
WR KeVonn Mabon
Williams is Ball State's leading receiver, but Mabon is its most efficient. He caught 64.8 percent of last year's targets, per Bill Connelly of SB Nation, and will need to find space in a timely manner so Milas can get the ball out of his hands. A good game from Mabon would go a long way toward keeping Milas clean and relegating the Aggies offense to the sideline.
What They're Saying
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Texas A&M
Sumlin on if there's quarterback controversy, as stated in a SportsCenter interview:
"It’s kind of funny, I got in here Saturday night and people were saying, ‘Well, there is a quarterback controversy.' There’s no controversy. There was always a plan to play Kyler in this game, and we got him in in the first half.
I think what you saw was one guy give us a spark. They’re two different types of guys. They’re both capable. One guy is more experienced and was very, very level-headed going back into the game and closing out the game in the fourth quarter. So we’ll have a plan going forward, but as far as a controversy, we don’t have it.
"
Garrett on the defense having a new attitude under Chavis, per Ron Higgins of the New Orleans Times-Picayune:
"Coach Chavis put us in the right position to make plays and we just got it done. We're just playing with a chip on our shoulder, because everybody's been downing us and saying we're not going to do anything on defense. There was no place for us to go but up.
"
Ball State
Milas on feeling more comfortable as a sophomore than he did last year as a freshman, per quotes released by the school after the win over VMI:
"Tonight was definitely more comfortable for me. The beginning was a little nerve racking but I settled down throughout the game. Just being out there again and getting the feel of the game again was great. I think I have improved. I also think our offense and our team have improved tremendously this season. From last year to this year, it’s a completely different story.
"
Bell on the benefit of having offensive-line continuity (101 career starts), per Ben Breiner of the Muncie Star Press:
"If you’re playing next to someone you don’t necessarily know, you’re checking peripheral vision, trying to see if they pick up the guy they’re supposed to get But if you trust the person next to you, you don’t have to look. You trust they’re going to be there.
"
Prediction
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It will be hard for Texas A&M to get up for Ball State after spending all offseason preparing for the season-opener. Saturday's was an emotional win, and there's no way the Aggies sustain that type of energy for a second straight week.
Fortunately, there's a good chance they won't have to. Ball State's pass defense is that bad. The matchup pitting Reynolds, Noil, Seals-Jones and Kirk against a team that couldn't cover VMI gives A&M such a big advantage that it can afford to kind of sleepwalk.
Garrett, Hall and the rest of the pass rush will come down to Earth statistically. That's what Ball State makes you do. But in the process of throwing so many quick passes, the Cardinals will get almost nothing going down the field.
So long as A&M tackles, it has this game in hand.
Prediction: Texas A&M 45, Ball State 13
Note: All recruiting info refers to 247Sports' composite rankings.
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