SEC Football: Bold Predictions for First Saturday of 2015 Season
College football season is one day old, and already the SEC has surprised us.
Short favorite South Carolina won a close game over North Carolina, and short underdog Vanderbilt lost a close game to Western Kentucky, but neither took the course we expected. Each game had a betting total of 60 or more points, according to Odds Shark.
They ended up featuring 56 points combined.
Thursday's surprising not-shootouts serve as a fitting introduction to our bold SEC predictions. We tried not to get too crazy, since that tends to make people angry (You idiots really think McNeese State can beat LSU!), but we also tried not to get too conservative, since that tends to make people even angrier (You idiots call these predictions BOLD!)
Basically, we predicted things we really think might happen but that conventional wisdom says will not. The sentiment behind each prediction might be common, but in those cases we made the magnitude extreme.
For example, "Leonard Fournette shreds McNeese State's defense" would not be a bold prediction. But "Leonard Fournette rushes for 300 yards" would be. See the difference? Awesome!
Sound off below with your own bold predictions for Week 1.
Note: All recruiting info refers to the 247Sports composite rankings
Alabama Shuts Out Wisconsin
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Ohio State held Wisconsin scoreless in last year's Big Ten Championship, so maybe this is less bold than I think.
Still, the Badgers averaged 34.6 points per game, hung 24 points on LSU and 34 points on Auburn and finished with a top-30 offense according to Football Outsiders' S&P+ ratings. Any time they fail to score, as they did against Ohio State, it's a shock.
Here's the problem, though: They're totally one-dimensional. Quarterback Joel Stave returns for what feels like his 15th season, but Wisconsin still lacks a passing game. Receiver Alex Erickson is the only returning player who finished last year with more than 200 receiving yards. The No. 2 returnee is former backup tight end Troy Fumagalli.
As long as the Crimson Tide shadow Erickson, they should keep Stave from finding a rhythm, which means Wisconsin can't exploit Alabama's weakness. Instead, Paul Chryst's team will have to play to Alabama's strength: the running game.
As good as Wisconsin has been on the ground, it does not have the experience to handle Alabama's defensive front. Linemen A'Shawn Robinson, Jonathan Allen, Jarran Reed, Darren Lake, Daron Payne and Dalvin Tomlinson and inside linebackers Reggie Ragland and Reuben Foster give the Tide a perfect cast to stop a rebuilt offensive line that no longer has Melvin Gordon in the backfield.
Alabama faces offensive questions that will prevent it from scoring enough to take its foot off the pedal defensively. It will need to stay sharp for all four quarters. Who on Wisconsin, besides running back Corey Clement, can step up and make a play?
Bowling Green Hangs 28 Points on Tennessee
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...And not because Tennessee's defense is bad.
Rather, Bowling Green can hang 28 points in Knoxville because its offense is that good. Senior quarterback Matt Johnson, who finished No. 11 in the country in QB rating two seasons ago, returns in good health after an injury-plagued year, and he's surrounded by 10 returning starters, along with Baylor transfer Robbie Rhodes, a 5-star wide receiver in the 2013 recruiting class.
He's also surrounded by head coach Dino Babers, an Art Briles disciple who enters his second year with the Falcons. Last year did not go as planned (even though Bowling Green won its division), but now the Falcons have an extra year of fluency in his offense—the same offense that helped Jimmy Garoppolo throw for 5,050 yards and 53 touchdowns en route to the Walter Payton Award (the FCS Heisman Trophy) at Eastern Illinois two years ago.
Tennessee will not lose this game on its home field. It will win and win comfortably, in large part because Bowling Green's defense, while pretty good by MAC standards, cannot hang with SEC tangibles.
Its offense, on the other hand, will find a way to move the ball on anyone. It is that deep, experienced and creative. Especially if Tennessee takes a big first-half lead, or at any point removes its foot from the pedal, the Falcons can reach four touchdowns.
Texas A&M Beats Arizona State by Double Digits
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You can find more in my complete game preview, and also in my picks against the spread, but basically the thinking goes like this:
You don't want to play Kevin Sumlin off a seven-month bye.
South Carolina learned that lesson the hard way in last year's season opener, when the Aggies beat it 52-28. The Gamecocks were overranked at No. 9 in the country, but they weren't completely useless. After all, they beat Georgia two weeks later.
Arizona State is better than South Carolina, but this year's Aggies are better than last year's. Last year's young defensive players are one year older, and now they're coached by The Chief, John Chavis. That doesn't mean A&M will shut down the Sun Devils offense (it won't), but it should mean enough stops to win by two scores if the offense finds the rhythm I predict.
ASU's defense is talented, but last year the whole equaled less than the sum of the parts, and it lacked the depth to last 60 minutes. According to Bill Connelly of SB Nation, it ranked No. 7 in the country in defensive S&P+ in the first quarter of games but No. 109 in the fourth quarter of games—an ominous sign against a team that plays at Texas A&M's tempo.
Even if its close for three quarters, the depth and pace of Sumlin's offense, a unit loaded past capacity with big-play wide receivers, can break this game open late. For some reason, I feel strongly that it will.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Auburn's Defense Looks MUCH Better Than Its Offense
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Again, this has more to do with the opponent than the SEC team in question.
Auburn's remodeled defense has a far easier task against Louisville than its offense. The Cardinals return just 19 career starts along the offensive line—No. 123 in the country, per Phil Steele—and lose the heart and soul of last year's offense, receiver DeVante Parker.
On defense, even though they lose Thorpe Award winner Gerod Holliman, James Sample and Charles Gaines from the secondary, along with ace pass-rusher Lorenzo Mauldin, they return three potential stars—defensive end Sheldon Rankins and linebackers James Burgess and Keith Kelsey—and add former TCU defensive end Devonte Fields (the 2012 Big 12 Player of the Year) and former Georgia starting defensive backs Shaq Wiggins and Josh Harvey-Clemons.
"I really believe this defense is going to be better this year," Burgess said at ACC media days, per Rick Bozich of WDRB.com. "I believe we're going to be No. 1 in the country."
Last year Louisville had the No. 6 defense in the country, per Football Outsiders' FEI ratings, so Burgess isn't speaking out his backside. The Cardinals having the nation's best defense is plausible. No matter how you swing it, they're a bad first matchup for an offense with a new starting quarterback, a new starting running back, a retooled offensive line and potentially none of last year's top-three receivers (depending on if D'haquille Williams plays).
Expect a lower-scoring game than Auburn fans are used to or comfortable with. But don't think that means it's doomed. New defensive coordinator Will Muschamp should have a positive debut, especially considering the state of Louisville's line. With Muschamp, former 5-star recruit Carl Lawson back from injury and rising 5-star freshman Byron Cowart added to the rotation at defensive end, last year's anemic pass rush should be a thing of the past.
For once, Auburn will win a game with defense.
Louisiana-Lafayette Takes Kentucky to the Wire
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Head coach Mark Stoops enters Year 3 at Kentucky at a crossroads. He recruited well in 2014 but took a step back last cycle when he was no longer the new coach on the block. If he wants to restore momentum, he needs to have a big 2015 season.
But things won't start out easy against perpetual Sun Belt contender Louisiana-Lafayette, which last year finished 9-4 and only five spots behind Kentucky in Football Outsiders' F/+ rankings. The Ragin Cajuns lose quarterback Terrance Broadway but retain head coach Mark Hudspeth, whose presence ensures the floor won't drop too far.
Running back Elijah McGuire was named Preseason Sun Belt Player of the Year on offense and will keep the chains moving against a run defense that improved last season but still has issues, not the least of which is losing last year's top-three tacklers along the defensive line, Bud Dupree, Z'Darius Smith and Mike Douglas. The depth from Stoops' recruiting success will be tested.
I still expect Kentucky to win, but I wouldn't be shocked if it lost. In fact, I'd be more shocked by a UK blowout than a narrow ULL victory.
The Wildcats are favored by 17 points, per Odds Shark, but the S&P+ projections call for a six-point margin, and the FEI projections call for a five-point margin. The FEI projections also give the Cajuns a 35 percent chance of winning outright.
Expect this to come down to the wire.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
