Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Simulating Every Round

Mock, yeah. Drafts, yeah. While Harry and Lloyd from Dumb and Dumber produced a stellar version of the Mockingbird song, we'll assume they didn't practice often for their fantasy football drafts. Meanwhile, all of us have been mock-drafting throughout the summer. 

That brings us to early September, on the doorstep of the new NFL campaign, with time for one more appraisal of the fantasy football redraft market. With a late look at the marketplace in mind, we've produced a 12-team mock draft using half-point-per-reception (.5 PPR) scoring and Fantasy Pros' average draft position (ADP) index. 

To make this one-man mock behave as if 12 managers were building out individual rosters, I've deployed Fantasy Pros' Draft Wizard application. It closely adheres to the site's aggregated ADP results but also behaves in a team-by-team construct; that way the No. 1 pick in this process slot doesn't hoard tight ends based solely on ADP but instead drafts with an eye on team building and roster balance. 

Randomly set with the third pick in this fake draft, I started off the festivities with a massive risk/reward allocation in Le'Veon Bell. As always, please feel free to mock my mock draft in the comments section. 

Round 1: Le'Veon Bell and Fellow Elite Backs Dominate Early

Don Wright/Associated Press

Round 1

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Eddie Lacy
3. Le'Veon Bell
4. Marshawn Lynch
5. Jamaal Charles
6. Matt Forte
7. C.J. Anderson
8. Rob Gronkowski
9. Dez Bryant
10. Antonio Brown
11. Demaryius Thomas
12. Andrew Luck

Waiting for Greatness

Drafting Le'Veon Bell this summer not only requires a high pick, as his lofty ADP suggests, but also early patience as we realize he's set to miss the first two games of the season. I took a generally risk-heavy approach at tailback in this draft, as you'll see into the later rounds. 

Bell will miss at least 15.4 percent of the fantasy football regular season (assuming 13 weeks) with the first two weeks off the books. Investors in Bell are banking on leveraging their third running back commodities in his place early on. I don't feel the need to own DeAngelo Williams, Bell's direct backup in Pittsburgh, as I'm more confident in a large crop of Williams' ADP peers. 

Rules Results

Given that this is a half-point PPR format, seeing seven backs lead the charge isn't so surprising. Antonio Brown is a dominant fantasy force in any format but particularly in PPR, where the margins he can create in the reception department propel him to a singular tier. Personally, I would take Antonio Brown first overall in a competitive PPR league.

With those margins cut in half, the running back crop reclaims value given the scarcity of feature workloads in the modern NFL.  

Diversifying Early

The teams that drafted Gronk and Luck both recovered to some respectable degree after skipping on the available crop of top tailbacks and receivers in the first. That said, I often avoid this route given how challenging restocking at the skill positions can prove in a sharp draft room.

Round 2: Calvin Johnson and Odell Beckham Jr. Lead the Receiver Run

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

Round 2

1. DeMarco Murray
2. Calvin Johnson
3. Odell Beckham Jr.
4. Julio Jones
5. Randall Cobb
6. Jeremy Hill
7. Aaron Rodgers
8. LeSean McCoy
9. A.J. Green
10. Alshon Jeffery 
11. T.Y. Hilton
12. Justin Forsett

Tier Drop

I'm clearly still a believer in Alshon Jeffery's ability to return value on a top price, even as he faces a murky injury situation entering the season. A lingering calf ailment, if that's what the issues is, clouds his early availability.

For a player who has finished 12th and ninth in fantasy points at the position over the past two seasons, respectively, a likely surge in already-elite usage could be in the works for Jeffery given the suspect state of the receiving depth chart in Chicago.

As you'll see throughout this draft, I tend to skew risk-heavy in chasing fake-football glory. I've put together more balanced rosters than this in terms of the inherent risk spectrum assumed, but we should also consider that only one team wins a fantasy league out of 10, 12 or even more teams. With this particular roster I've built, the floor might be low, but I just keep staring at the ceiling.

Receiver Run

The WR1 crop really thins out after a sustained run on top talents in this round. It's arguable that the bumper crop of second-year wideouts extends into the third round, but when it comes to securing proven pedigree, you will want to get at least one receiver in the first two rounds. 

Round 3: Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans and Jordan Matthews Form a Sophomore Trio

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Round 3

1. Brandin Cooks
2. Jimmy Graham
3. Mike Evans
4. Peyton Manning
5. DeAndre Hopkins
6. Mark Ingram
7. Jordan Matthews
8. Lamar Miller
9. Latavius Murray
10. Russell Wilson
11. Frank Gore
12. Melvin Gordon

Sophomore Hands

Between Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans and Jordan Matthews, the 2014 NFL draft certainly helped inflate the crop of worthy fantasy stars at the position. 

Cooks is poised for a 90-reception floor in what is still one of the league's top passing offenses. Mike Evans turned in a top-12 fantasy season at the position as a 21-year-old rookie.

Matthews, meanwhile, has had a transcendent offseason and appears ready to assume the rewarding role as the top target in an exciting, snap-heavy offense. 

It was closer than I would have guessed in deciding between Evans and Matthews with my selection. I chose Evans because of the superior touchdown potential as one of the league's best point-of-catch weapons already. After Matthews goes in this draft, it becomes hard to envision true WR1 upside for many of the remaining candidates. 

Polarizing Back

Melvin Gordon's fantasy stock in May was remarkably high—landing in the early second of many early-summer drafts. But it wasn't so unexpected: The market was pricing what it saw as a talented young feature back drafted highly by a team with a strong quarterback situation.

Danny Woodhead's presence and a quiet preseason have since served to deflate Gordon's stock into the third and fourth rounds of drafts. It will be interesting to see how this plays out for the early-down rookie, but I'm beginning to wonder if a window for value might open in standard leagues if the price falls into the fourth round.

Round 4: Are Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall Veteran Values?

L.G. Patterson/Associated Press

Round 4

1. Emmanuel Sanders
2. Alfred Morris
3. Andre Johnson
4. Ben Roethlisberger
5. Jonathan Stewart
6. Brandon Marshall
7. Julian Edelman
8. Allen Robinson
9. Carlos Hyde
10. Davante Adams
11. Drew Brees
12. Golden Tate

Veteran Values? 

Emmanuel Sanders was a top-10 receiver in any fantasy football format last season. Fears of an offense trending run-heavy and limiting the passing party seem legit, as Sanders shared with Allie Raymond of the Broncos' website: "Hopefully, my goal is really to try to get a 1,000 yards to just help this team win ball games."

While I dig the humility angle and do see some deflation on the way, I'm not buying such a massive—more than 30 percent—drop in production for Sanders. With the new scheme and fears over Peyton Manning's arm in play, Sanders is undoubtedly a divisive asset on the 2015 market. 

Meanwhile, Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson can be had as low-end second wideouts after producing as top guns for so long. Johnson's decline in the face of high usage last season has me avoiding shares of him at his current price. While with Marshall, I would have taken him over Davante Adams if he had lasted. 

Adams is in a lucrative position as a target hog on the outside in Green Bay. Marshall is in a position to provide profit as well given a rich role in a Chan Gailey offense and a cost that already bakes in his age (31), usage and decline risks. This actually proved to be a nice round for building receiving depth.

Round 5: Joseph Randle and the Risk/Reward Round

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Round 5

1. Amari Cooper
2. Keenan Allen
3. Chris Ivory
4. DeSean Jackson
5. Greg Olsen
6. Sammy Watkins
7. Matt Ryan
8. Vincent Jackson
9. Andre Ellington 
10. Joseph Randle
11. Travis Kelce
12. Jeremy Maclin

Confusing Committee 

What is going in Dallas? No really, please share in the comments what you actually think is going on with the Dallas Cowboys backfield. Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports reported that it's headed straight toward a bullpen-like breakdown of the workload.

"Dallas isn't relenting on this. It's not a bluff. As it stands right now, this will be a committee in the purest NFL form. The Cowboys are adamant that their elite offensive line can be the glue that elevates a collection of parts into a greater whole," he wrote. 

I haven't held many shares of the Dallas backfield this summer, if any. Wait on Darren McFadden if you're intent on seeing if there is value to net from this great offensive line. For those with expensive Randle shares, Week 1 will be a revealing outing either way. 

Round 6: Jason Witten and Owen Daniels Proving It's Tight End Time

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Round 6

1. Martellus Bennett
2. Tony Romo
3. Todd Gurley
4. Larry Fitzgerald 
5. Steve Smith
6. Jarvis Landry
7. Jason Witten
8. Martavis Bryant
9. Owen Daniels
10. Arian Foster
11. T.J. Yeldon
12. Tyler Eifert 

Tight End Time

We all know how "runs" work in a fantasy draft. A position has been on pause for a few rounds, and then a rush ensues after a pick reminds the room a tier could be consumed. We see this happen mostly with single positions in fantasy, such as tight end and quarterback. 

In this case, we witnessed some tight ends fly off the board in a chain reaction. I'm not buying any shares of Owen Daniels at his age (32) and with his dubious durability history and lack of production pedigree.

Meanwhile, the price on Tyler Eifert is rich, but there are the potential rewards. Sometimes, though, managers chasing upside in guys like Eifert fail to see the rest of the board. As my high school basketball coach always said, "Keep your head on a swivel so you can see what you're missing." 

Gambling on the Groin

I took a real risk on Arian Foster here in the sixth round. I've seen him go a bit higher than this in some drafts already, but this is a good approximation of where I'm comfortable investing.

Am I crazy to have Le'Veon Bell and Foster in tow? Quite possibly. I also tried to build my team with enough firepower at receiver to help get me through the early weeks. Given how I've invested, Chris Ivory will be important to my fantasy backfield early on.  

Round 7: Signal-Caller Spending on Tom Brady and Cam Newton

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

Round 7

1. Tom Brady
2. Mike Wallace
3. C.J. Spiller
4. Nelson Agholor 
5. Ryan Tannehill 
6. Roddy White
7. Delanie Walker 
8. Cam Newton
9. Jordan Cameron 
10. Seattle D/ST
11. Anquan Boldin
12. Victor Cruz

Brady Bargain? 

Shares of Tom Brady have come reasonably priced thanks to the assumption he'll be missing the first quarter of the season to suspension. These shares could prove valuable if Brady can return to top fantasy form after he serves four games, or they could prove wildly profitable if his suspension is reduced or removed. It's one of the more interesting investing moments we've seen in fantasy football. 

Round 8: Doug Martin and 7 Other Running Backs Rule the Round

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Round 8 

1. Rashad Jennings 
2. LeGarrette Blount 
3. Antonio Gates
4. Ameer Abdullah
5. Doug Martin
6. Joique Bell
7. Houston D/ST
8. Giovani Bernard
9. Buffalo D/ST
10. Eric Decker
11. Tevin Coleman
12. Alfred Blue

Detroit Dilemma

This appears to be a big bargain on Ameer Abdullah. I have paid higher prices for him already this summer, but I'm curious if the sixth round isn't where he should be going and not the third and fourth like in many drafts (especially PPR formats) of late. Joique Bell still looms large in the workload breakdown and is often found two rounds—not two picks—later than the rookie.

Digging Decker

I've been digging the price on Eric Decker all offseason. He finished in the top 30 in points per game at the position last season and yet goes well into the 40s at the position in most formats. Let others chase the upside shares sometimes, and be comfortable with the security of a valuable veteran. 

Round 9: Ryan Mathews Leads the Crop of Backup Backs

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

Round 9 

1. Charles Johnson 
2. St. Louis D/ST
3. Sam Bradford
4. Isaiah Crowell
5. Brandon LaFell 
6. Darren McFadden
7. Kendall Wright
8. Shane Vereen 
9. Ryan Mathews
10. Darren Sproles
11. Bishop Sankey
12. Michael Floyd

Bullish on Bradford

I clearly like to fall in love with small sample sizes. Like Sam Bradford's limited yet brilliant exposure in the preseason so far. I'm honestly more into the offensive scheme than the player himself, as Bradford is at the helm of one of the richest fantasy setups in football.

In a 12-team league, quality QB play is often still on the waiver wire after the draft. That said, I would likely have preferred to net a strong backup arm to insure my Bradford investment. 

Round 10: David Johnson and Other Upside Investments

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Round 10

1. Devonta Freeman
2. Eli Manning
3. Reggie Bush
4. Danny Woodhead
5. Marques Colston
6. Tre Mason
7. Torrey Smith
8. Philip Rivers
9. John Brown
10. David Johnson
11. Devin Funchess
12. Matthew Stafford

Lottery Backs

Devonta Freeman appears poised to consume a strong share of backfield work for the Atlanta Falcons, particularly in the passing game. David Johnson and Danny Woodhead, meanwhile, could threaten for third-down and goal-line shares in their respective offenses.

Instead of going after seemingly safe veterans such as Marques Colston and Torrey Smith in this part of the draft, I'd much prefer shares of Devin Funchess, John Brown or these upside tailbacks. 

Round 11: Handcuff Running Backs Dominate the Board

George Bridges/Associated Press

Round 11

1. Duke Johnson
2. DeAngelo Williams
3. Ronnie Hillman
4. Charles Sims
5. David Cobb
6. Fred Jackson
7. Teddy Bridgewater 
8. Colin Kaepernick 
9. Eddie Royal
10. Jonas Gray
11. Pierre Garcon 
12. Carolina D/ST

Denver Dynamo

Ronnie Hillman was effectively efficient in 2014 but missed half the season to injury. As the key understudy to C.J. Anderson in Denver, his season-long upside was more enticing than chasing an earlier stake in DeAngelo Williams as a means of insurance for my investment in Le'Veon Bell. 

Gray Matters 

Shares of Jonas Gray could help investors in Bell or Blount in Week 1, as the young back is set to consume early-down duties for the New England Patriots in Week 1.

Rounds 12 and 13: Wideout Lottery Tickets

David Goldman/Associated Press

Round 12

1. Percy Harvin
2. Andre Williams
3. Tyler Lockett
4. Carson Palmer
5. Roy Helu Jr.
6. Steven Johnson
7. Breshad Perriman
8. Brian Quick 
9. Terrance Williams
10. Zach Ertz
11. Joe Flacco
12. Markus Wheaton

Round 13

1. Knile Davis
2. Kenny Stills
3. DeVante Parker
4. Lorenzo Taliaferro
5. Terrance West
6. Stevan Ridley
7. Josh Hill 
8. Rueben Randle
9. Kyle Rudolph
10. Alex Smith
11. Cameron Artis-Payne
12. Montee Ball

Go Big in the Twilight Rounds 

Second tight ends can be helpful. Backup quarterbacks can prove vital. But breakout candidates help to define our fantasy portfolios. Assuming we all will face injury and underwhelming performance in spots on our rosters, I like to stock up on upside assets. 

I'm getting shares of DeVante Parker on the cheap: He's arguably the most immediately dangerous outside weapon on the Miami Dolphins once he suits up. With Week 1 looking in play, Parker shares could be fun in the first quarter of the season. 

Although he didn't make it to me in this draft, I've been "reaching" for Brian Quick in the 11th to secure his services. As the potential top target of Nick Foles, there's really no risk to the real rewards that Quick can provide.

Rounds 14 and 15: Marcus Mariota, Kickers and Defenses Round Out the Draft

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Round 14

1. Dwayne Allen
2. Arizona D/ST
3. Coby Fleener
4. Denver D/ST
5. New England D/ST
6. New York Jets D/ST
7. Charles Clay
8. Baltimore D/ST
9. Marcus Mariota
10. Miami D/ST
11. Matt Jones
12. Philadelphia D/ST

Round 15

1. Stephen Gostkowski
2. Adam Vinatieri 
3. Steven Hauschka
4. Sebastian Janikowski
5. Justin Tucker
6. Cody Parkey
7. Mason Crosby
8. Dan Bailey
9. Matt Bryant
10. Blair Walsh
11. Brandon McManus
12. Nick Novak

Streaming D

I am a huge proponent of "streaming" at D/ST, which is to suggest you seek out matchups over a singular group throughout the season. Some deeper leagues or those that simply tend to hoard the position can make this strategy less applicable, but most leagues accommodate a few teams truly streaming at the position. 

In this draft, the Miami Dolphins D/ST fell in my lap. While I love to chase weekly values—preferring to side with teams that Vegas favors in games with point totals under 47—landing the Fins and their amazing early schedule is a boon to my risk-laden early strategy. 

Consider that the Dolphins face the Washington Redskins, Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills to start the season. Oh yeah, they then face the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans. That sounds like a fantasy-friendly slate in regard to facing bottom-tier offenses and suspect signal-caller scenarios.