UFC 192: Cormier vs. Gustafsson Early Main Card Preview and Predictions
UFC 191 was an unremarkable slate of showcase fights. UFC 192 on October 3, though? Well, at the very least, it's an interesting slate of showcase fights. The full card is as follows:
- Daniel Cormier vs. Alexander Gustafsson
- Johny Hendricks vs. Tyron Woodley
- Ryan Bader vs. Rashad Evans
- Shawn Jordan vs. Ruslan Magomedov
- Jessica Eye vs. Julianna Pena
- Joseph Benavidez vs. Ali Bagautinov
- Yair Rodriguez vs. Dan Hooker
- Rose Namajunas vs. Angela Hill
- Alan Jouban vs. Albert Tumenov
- Chris Cariaso vs. Sergio Pettis
- Derrick Lewis vs. Viktor Pesta
- Islam Makhachev vs. Adriano Martins
- Francisco Trevino vs. Sage Northcutt
It's easy to gripe about the main event, an awkward light heavyweight title match between Daniel Cormier and Alexander Gustafsson. When one looks over the entire card, however, it's easy to get at least a little excited.
Johny Hendricks vs. Tyron Woodley is likely a top contender's bout at 170 pounds. Ryan Bader vs. Rashad Evans probably decides who gets the next crack at the light heavyweight belt. Jessica Eye looks to hold back the Julianna Pena storm. Oh, and Shawn Jordan is set to return after his electrifying Sweet Chin Music knockout against Ruslan Magomedov.
With that in mind, it's worth taking a closer look at these five fights and making some early predictions about who will come out on top.
Jessica Eye vs. Julianna Pena
1 of 5
Division: Women's Bantamweight
Records: Jessica Eye (11-3 (1)), Julianna Pena (7-2)
Here it is, folks—Julianna Pena's big chance to force her way into the women's bantamweight title picture.
From the moment Pena was introduced on The Ultimate Fighter, it was clear that she had the "It factor." Not the shallow, purely aesthetic "It factor" Dana White referred to with Paige VanZant, either. No, Pena had the in-cage ferocity, out-of-cage drive and unshakable arrogance that you see with any truly elite athlete.
The one thing missing for Pena has been a top-10 name on her resume. That can change here.
Jessica Eye isn't necessarily an elite talent, but she has the skills and athleticism to hang with almost anyone in the division. If Pena can win, it will mean big things for her. If she wins convincingly, it might just mean that Ronda Rousey has a true challenge on her hands.
Prediction: Julianna Pena def. Jessica Eye by unanimous decision
Shawn Jordan vs. Ruslan Magomedov
2 of 5
Division: Heavyweight
Records: Shawn Jordan (18-6), Ruslan Magomedov (13-1)
Ruslan Magomedov is a hot, up-and-coming heavyweight prospect. Shawn Jordan is a middling veteran of Strikeforce, Bellator and the UFC. You can figure out the logic of this matchup yourself.
In general, Jordan has done solid work while beating the chaff and losing to the wheat. The trouble here is that Magomedov is still new enough that it's hard to gauge where he lies on that spectrum.
On the one hand, Magomedov is 13-1 as a heavyweight (and occasionally as a super heavyweight). That suggests that there is, at the very least, something to get excited over. On the other hand, he has faced nothing resembling high-level competition in his MMA career and has failed to truly stand out in any way.
In all likelihood, this will end with either a glorious knockout win for Jordan or a boring but convincing decision win for Magomedov. At this point, the former feels likelier.
Prediction: Shawn Jordan def. Ruslan Magomedov by TKO in Round 2
Ryan Bader vs. Rashad Evans
3 of 5
Division: Light Heavyweight
Records: Ryan Bader (20-4), Rashad Evans (24-3-1)
Rashad Evans is finally back, ladies and gentlemen. The former light heavyweight champion has on the shelf for nearly two years at this point, but he is poised to jump right back into the thick of title contention with a fight against Ryan Bader. While his return is cause for celebration, it's impossible to guess what the TUF2 winner may look like in 2015.
Even before his long layoff, there were two distinct versions of Evans: the well-rounded machine who savaged Phil Davis and Chael Sonnen and the tired, old wrestler who fizzled against Dan Henderson and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. The former would likely defeat Bader without much trouble. The latter, however, would likely fall prey to Bader's methodical attack.
Obviously, it's impossible to guess which version of Evans will enter the cage at UFC 192. Heck, it's hard to say that the "good" version of Evans even exists anymore, given two years of rust and a Dominick Cruz-like knee injury.
When it comes to making picks, however, one must look at the ceiling for either man. Evans, simply, has the higher ceiling.
Prediction: Rashad Evans def. Ryan Bader by unanimous decision
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Johny Hendricks vs. Tyron Woodley
4 of 5
Division: Welterweight
Records: Johny Hendricks (17-3), Tyron Woodley (15-3)
Tyron Woodley has been pushing for a big fight for a good long while. Well, he got it in the form of a bout with former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks. The question is if he will come to regret it.
On paper, Woodley and Hendricks are similar fighters with similar records and similar backgrounds. It's no surprise, then, that they also share a lack of consistency in the cage.
Hendricks is a proven championship-level fighter, nearly taking the welterweight title from Georges St-Pierre in 2013. But while he would earn the belt four months later by defeating Robbie Lawler, he would immediately drop it with an ugly, wheezy performance in their rematch.
Woodley has produced similarly iffy results, scoring big wins over the likes of Josh Koscheck and Dong-Hyun Kim but struggling mightily against Rory MaDonald and Jake Shields. His most recent outing, which saw him limp to a split-decision victory, falls into the latter category and does little to inspire confidence that he can hang with top-flight competition.
It is those struggles against elite opponents that make it hard to buy into Woodley in this fight. Could Hendricks have another off day, gas out and get overtaken late? Sure. Hendricks should win here, though.
Prediction: Johny Hendricks def. Tyron Woodley by unanimous decision
Daniel Cormier vs. Alexander Gustafsson
5 of 5
Division: Light Heavyweight
Records: Daniel Cormier (16-1), Alexander Gustafsson (16-3)
The title fight nobody expected is coming. Light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier is set to defend his strap against Alexander Gustafsson. While it's easy to turn cynical about this fight given the less-than-ideal (that is, Jon Jones-free) circumstances, this is still a compelling tilt between two elite 205-pound fighters.
This is an intriguing, classical stylistic matchup. Cormier is a prototypical wrestler-turned-mixed martial artist, capable of eating up rounds against the cage and finishing fights on the mat. Gustafsson is a long, rangy striker who prefers to peck away at foes from a safe distance before sealing the deal with punches.
It's an interesting bout on its own, and the fact that it serves as a bridge to an epic rematch with Jones makes it a must-watch. Unfortunately, it's hard to imagine it going in any direction other than a Cormier decision.
Prediction: Daniel Cormier def. Alexander Gustafsson by unanimous decision
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