Louisville vs. Auburn Complete Game Preview
For the fourth straight year, Auburn will open its season with a matchup against an opponent from a Power Five conference. Three seasons after their Week 1 loss to Clemson, the Tigers will return to the Georgia Dome for the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game to face a new ACC power—Louisville.
Gus Malzahn's Auburn program heads into Atlanta with some new faces that are still familiar—from a star quarterback who has already taken the field in an opener to an elite defensive coordinator who once roamed the sidelines on the Plains.
Louisville has its own set of questions and new starters after sending a large amount of talent to the NFL ranks from last year's 9-4 squad. Head coach Bobby Petrino, who is quite familiar with the Auburn program, will have his Cardinals prepared to pull off the upset and put a dent in the Tigers' huge hopes for 2015.
How does Auburn match up with Louisville on both sides of the ball? Before we break down this Saturday's intriguing clash, here is the basic info you need to know about the latest edition of the kickoff classic.
Date: Saturday, September 5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Atlanta (Georgia Dome)
TV: CBS
Line: Auburn -10.5, according to Odds Shark
Auburn Keys to Victory
1 of 6
Establish the run
After all the offseason chatter about Jeremy Johnson's arm and Heisman chances, the season opener against Louisville—which replaces all four starters in its excellent secondary from 2014—should be a perfect time for Malzahn to open up the playbook for the junior quarterback.
But don't expect Malzahn to go back to his pass-happy, Arkansas high school roots in Week 1.
Auburn has been successful on offense under Malzahn because of its strong running game, and he has a deep crop of four running backs to choose from on Saturday—super sophomore Roc Thomas, JUCO transfer Jovon Robinson, redshirt sophomore Peyton Barber and true freshman Kerryon Johnson.
"You look at what Gus Malzahn really is—he's a ground-and-pound, power coach," Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee said. "[He's had] 12 1,000-yard rushers in nine seasons as a college head or assistant coach... I think they get sort of conservative with Johnson in the season opener and bring him along a little slowly."
Success on the ground won't automatically come easy for Auburn, as the Cardinals were ranked 10th nationally last season in rush defense and return key front-seven pieces in Sheldon Rankins, Keith Kelsey and James Burgess.
If Auburn does decide to focus primarily on the ground game for this matchup, look for Johnson to stay involved with his read-option work.
"He’s got to be enough of a run threat in Gus Malzahn’s scheme that [opposing defenses] have to honor him to give the running game a chance to get started," CBS Sports analyst Rick Neuheisel said this week, per Michael Niziolek of the Ledger-Enquirer. "If that happens, Auburn is going to be a really, really good."
Limit explosive plays
Will Muschamp's first game back on the Plains will provide an interesting test for his Auburn defense. Louisville has question marks at quarterback and along the offensive line, but it still returns several important pieces from last year's offense.
There's bound to be a few offensive tricks up Bobby Petrino's sleeve, especially in a season opener with an offense that is clouded in mystery.
Petrino will look to keep a transitioning Auburn defense off balance throughout the opening game of the season. When that happens, big plays usually follow, and the Tigers ranked 103rd nationally last season in allowing plays of 20 yards or more.
The Louisville head coach specifically mentioned the importance of getting "chunk plays" against Auburn's defense during his Monday press conference—specifically through the air.
"That was the fun thing about last Friday night [mock game] was our receivers made a lot of big plays, whether it was going up and catching balls or running after the catch, they all did a nice job of it," Petrino said, per Jeff Greer of the Courier-Journal. "And some of the young receivers really showed out."
For the past nine months, Muschamp has preached what he wants out of his defense from game one—and a top priority is limiting the big plays that have hurt Auburn in the last two seasons.
"I expect us to play physical," senior cornerback Jonathan Jones said, per Wesley Sinor of AL.com. "...there are always going to be mistakes in the first game. You want to limit the first tackles and things like that, and the explosive plays. We just want to be physical, know what to do and play fast."
Louisville Keys to Victory
2 of 6
Protect the football
Louisville's defense prided itself on getting turnovers last season. The Cardinals were tied with TCU and Louisiana Tech for the most interceptions in the FBS last season with 26.
But even with such a high number of picks, Louisville finished 2015 with only a plus-four in turnover margin because its offense ranked No. 101 nationally in turnovers lost.
According to Greer, Petrino listed ball control as one of his keys to the game. And while Auburn's defense struggled to keep opponents out of the end zone last season, it had a good amount of success in forcing turnovers through the air with 22 interceptions.
With Louisville's intrigue at quarterback heading into the game—Petrino said there's a possibility the Cardinals will play more than one against Auburn—the offense needs to take special care of the football.
The Cardinals return only five starters on the offensive side of the ball, and Auburn's defense will look to be aggressive and force turnovers in Muschamp's first game back as a coordinator.
Giving Auburn's explosive offense a short field is quite dangerous. But if the Cardinals can hold onto the ball and chip away at a frustrated Tigers defense, that will open things up for the big plays downfield.
"As long as you're always going forward you have a chance to get first downs, move the sticks, keep them on the field," Petrino said, per Greer. "That's what you try to do is keep their defense on the field, and you can't do that if you're hurting yourself."
Get to Jeremy Johnson
Although this isn't Johnson's first time opening a season as the starting quarterback—he filled in for a suspended Nick Marshall in the first half of last year's opener against Arkansas—he's still relatively new at leading an offense.
Now entering its second season under defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, Louisville is focused on rattling Johnson in his first start as the clear-cut No. 1 quarterback at Auburn.
"That's what we've been working hard at, and then when we do force them to throw the ball we've got to put pressure on a young quarterback—give him different looks and make him not see what exactly the coverages are going to be," Petrino said, per Greer.
The Cardinals definitely have plenty of experience and talent for getting to the quarterback. They ranked No. 11 nationally last season in sacks and return two of their top three players in that category—defensive end Sheldon Rankins and linebacker Keith Kelsey.
Also added to the mix for Louisville is transfer Devonte Fields, who won the Big 12's Defensive Player of the Year award as a TCU freshman defensive end in 2012. He had 10 sacks that season and will line up as a pass-rushing outside linebacker at Louisville.
While the Tigers have depth along their offensive line, they must replace a pair of longtime starters in Reese Dismukes and Chad Slade. A specific target for Louisville's defense will be Auburn left tackle Shon Coleman, who struggled at times with pass protection in 2014 and racked up holding calls.
If Louisville can provide enough pressure on Johnson, it should be able to mask the inexperience in the secondary. The Cardinals have a pair of Georgia transfers in Josh Harvey-Clemons and Shaq Wiggins, but the ball-hawking defensive backs haven't taken the field yet as a cohesive unit.
Auburn Players to Watch
3 of 6
QB Jeremy Johnson
It's almost too easy to put Johnson here, but he has to be worth mentioning in a "players to watch" list for this season opener. This is his first chance to deliver on his preseason hype and show how different Auburn's offense will look with him instead of Nick Marshall.
"He's a big guy and he can really run," Malzahn said, per the Associated Press (via Fox Sports). "North-south, he can really get it done. He'll run it when he has to run it and he'll throw it when he has to throw it. We have confidence he can make all the throws."
All eyes will be on Johnson on Saturday as he leads Auburn into the Georgia Dome. He doesn't have to win the game all by himself, but his performance will set the tone for the Tigers' season on offense.
DE Byron Cowart
The biggest offseason addition not named Will Muschamp reportedly had a frustrating start to life on the Plains, but Auburn isn't going to slow-play the true freshman defensive end.
"Byron is going to play," Muschamp said, per Brandon Marcello of AL.com. "It doesn't matter first down, second down, third down. He's going to play in the game and play a lot."
Cowart, a former 5-star recruit, will provide an extra boost to a pass rush that was flat at best last season. He'll most likely line up at the traditional defensive end position, as sophomore Carl Lawson makes his long-awaited return from injury over at the hybrid "Buck" role.
S Tray Matthews
While the Auburn secondary returns a couple of starting pieces in Jonathan Jones and Johnathan "Rudy" Ford, Matthews will slide into a safety position left by the departed Jermaine Whitehead. The former Georgia transfer recently got back to 100 percent from a leg injury and figures to be a key player in Muschamp's defense this year.
"Coach Muschamp emphasizes physicality," Matthews said last week, per Phillip Marshall of Auburn Undercover. "We bring that to the table more and more every day. Now that I’m back, I’m trying to bring it every day. I’m going to be the one that’s bringing the boom every practice and every game."
An interesting pregame storyline is that this will be Matthews' first game since the 2013 season, which featured an infamous deflection to Ricardo Louis in Auburn's dramatic win over Georgia. The other player involved in that deflection? Josh Harvey-Clemons, who is now at Louisville.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Louisville Players to Watch
4 of 6
RB Brandon Radcliff
Radcliff didn't start last season as Louisville's No. 1 running back, but he claimed that role by the end of the season. The powerful junior ran for 737 yards and 12 touchdowns last season and will be a tough man to bring down Saturday.
"He's kind of like the Energizer Bunny," Petrino said, per Steve Jones of the Courier-Journal. "He just keeps going and going and gives you everything he has every play. I have a lot of respect for him."
Auburn's run defense struggled at times last season, but it should be a strength of the team this year with the number of veterans down the middle of the defense. A hard runner like Radcliff will be a solid test of how much it has improved over the offseason.
WR James Quick
Whoever starts at quarterback Saturday for Louisville will definitely want to get the ball to Quick, the team's top returning receiver. He'll look to take over the No. 1 role left by DeVante Parker, who was a rough matchup for any defensive back last season.
As Mike Rutherford of SB Nation's Card Chronicle writes, Quick hasn't exactly lived up to high expectations during his Louisville career. A matchup against an Auburn secondary that is prone to allowing big plays could be the start of something big for the junior.
"Had Quick been a former 2-star recruit from Wyoming, his 36 catches for 566 yards and three touchdowns last season would have been celebrated appropriately," Rutherford wrote. "Instead, the hometown high school star who was supposed to become the hometown college All-American is headed into his junior year hoping to shed the stigma of being something of an underachiever."
DE Sheldon Rankins
As James Crepea of AL.com wrote, Pro Football Focus suggests Rankins will be the second-best player Auburn faces all season, behind Georgia star running back Nick Chubb. The 303-pound defensive end is efficient against the run and the pass, and Auburn players are well-aware of the challenge he brings.
"He looks really similar, to me, on tape as some of those D-tackles from Florida State that we went up against in (the BCS National Championship Game)," left guard Alex Kozan said, per Crepea. "Definitely going to have to bring it against him every play. He's got a nonstop motor and he's a good player."
Even though the Cardinals return just four defensive starters this season, having an elite player like Rankins will ensure Louisville doesn't face a big drop-off. He should have a major impact Saturday.
What They're Saying
5 of 6
Auburn
Head coach Gus Malzahn on handling preseason expectations, per Brandon Marcello of AL.com:
"Our team is pretty grounded. The bottom line is you've got to go out and earn it... preseason rankings don't matter... It's great to have high expectations. We want to win championships every year at Auburn.
"
Offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee on starting running back Roc Thomas, per Crepea:
"Some guys that run hard and violent and with a lot of cutting like him, sometimes you're more concerned about them with durability. I think that's the No. 1 thing we're most excited about. We hope (added weight) will help keep him healthy. And two, it has probably given him confidence to be tougher.
"
Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp on his goals for Auburn's season opener, per Crepea:
"I just want to win. It's all about winning... There is no barometer we're looking for. Let's just do what we need to do to win the game. I think any coach would say the same thing. Let's just do what we need to do to win the game and that's what we need to do.
"
Louisville
Running back L.J. Scott on Louisville's chances against Auburn, per Sinor:
"We're excited about it because this isn't one of those games that we put on our schedule just to say that we were in it. This isn't something that we want to come back from Atlanta saying, 'We got to play in the Georgia Dome against Auburn.' No, this is something that we truly believe we can win and we're going to go out there and win.
"
Head coach Bobby Petrino on opening the season in Atlanta, per Greer:
"I'm just anxious to get going. Let's go play and see where we're at. I'm excited about the fact that it's a great opening game, we recruit a lot of players out of that area. We'll have a great crowd there. It'll put our players in a huge atmosphere that will help us for the rest of the year, to be able to go down there and play in that type of atmosphere—loud, be able to communicate non-verbally, not hear the cadence—it's only going to make us better.
"
CBS analyst Gary Danielson on Louisville's keys against Auburn, per Greer:
"If I was Louisville, with (defensive coordinator) Todd Grantham having a lot of experience vs. the Auburn attack, he knows how important it is for his secondary vs. them. As a unit, Auburn is one of the most difficult teams for a secondary to line up against properly and get their fits and angles. The secondary for Louisville and the (offensive line) for Louisville, they can't get dominated in this game. Whoever starts at quarterback, they have enough experience. But the two areas that have to come through for Louisville are the offensive line and the secondary.
"
Prediction
6 of 6
Both teams have a low number of returning starters this season, so slow starts and early miscues wouldn't be too surprising for this opener inside the Georgia Dome.
The big matchup between Auburn's reloading offense and Louisville's tough defense—both featuring several stars and newcomers—should be a good one. A conservative, ground-based game might play right into Louisville's advantage, but Johnson will get some opportunities to challenge a secondary undergoing major turnover.
On offense, it's hard to say what Louisville will look like without a confirmed starter at quarterback. Reggie Bonnafon gives Louisville a dangerous dual threat, while Will Gardner and Kyle Bolin will mostly stick to the pocket. While the Cardinals don't have a prolific offense, they will take their chances against a defense in transition.
The minus-10.5 line for this game seems right on the money. I expect it to be a close game for most of the first three quarters. Both teams will have to settle for field goals, and the winner could come down to who gets the first big, momentum-shifting touchdown in the second half.
I look for Auburn to keep the Cardinals defense off balance just enough to hit them for a few big plays in the second half. The Tigers show their talent advantage in the fourth quarter, pull away from the Cards and leave Atlanta with a solid two-score victory over what could be a serious contender in the ACC.
Prediction: Auburn 34, Louisville 23
All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruit rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
