Texas A&M vs. Arizona State: Complete Game Preview
Year 4 of the Kevin Sumlin era at Texas A&M begins with a difficult assignment: beat No. 15 Arizona State.
The Aggies opened last year with a 52-28 upset over then-No. 9 South Carolina, but the season unraveled after a 5-0 start. In the next three games, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Alabama outscored Texas A&M by a combined 142-51 margin and averaged 7.1 yards per play, and the Aggies sputtered to an 8-5 finish.
If the defense hasn't been rectified, A&M will have a hard time beating an Arizona State team that thrives on offense and has won 10 games in consecutive seasons. There are reasons to expect defensive improvement, which is why, despite the rankings, the Aggies are technically betting favorites, but it's hard to know for sure.
Either way, this is easily one of the highlights of Week 1.
Date: Saturday, September 5
Time: 7 p.m. ET (6 p.m. local)
Location: NRG Stadium; Houston, Texas
TV: ESPN
Radio: TAMUSN; ESPN Phoenix 620 AM
Line: Texas A&M -3, according to OddsShark.com
Texas A&M Keys to Victory
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Chavisball
New defensive coordinator John Chavis will have to earn his big contract immediately. Arizona State returns seven offensive starters from a team that averaged 36.9 points a game, and that's without including experienced quarterback Mike Bercovici.
Chavis came to College Station from LSU, where he forged a reputation for coaching physical front sevens and athletic secondaries. He also forged a reputation for shutting down spread offenses, as Texas A&M fans learned the hard way. Last year's Tigers defense finished No. 9 in the country, per Football Outsiders' S&P+ ratings, and held the Aggies to 228 yards, 17 points and 4.75 yards per play.
However, last year's LSU defense also allowed 566 yards, 41 points and 7.65 yards per play against Auburn—the SEC offense most similar to that of Arizona State. Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn was the offensive coordinator under Sun Devils head coach Todd Graham at Tulsa in 2007 and 2008. He and Graham are confidants, and their offenses rely on the same high-tempo, spread-you-out principles.
Has Chavis had time to coach up this defense? Are the young Aggies disciplined, physical and deep enough to hold Arizona State under, say, 30 points? Discipline, physicality and depth are three of the most important parts of stopping a high-tempo offense. They're also three things that Chavis knows how to instill.
But they're also three things Texas A&M has struggled with.
Win the Turnover Battle
Arizona State finished No. 6 in the country last year in turnover margin. It had a plus-18 margin in 10 victories but a minus-four margin in three losses. As the turnovers went, so went the Sun Devils.
Texas A&M was the opposite, finishing No. 107 in the country in turnover margin. Even in its wins, it had a margin of minus-one. Its 13 defensive turnovers ranked No. 122 in the country and No. 13 in the SEC.
Chavis should help create more turnovers, but the offensive side is a question mark. As well as Kyle Allen played after replacing Kenny Hill at quarterback, he struggled to protect the ball. Hill threw only eight interceptions on 321 pass attempts (one per 40.1); Allen threw seven on 192 (one per 27.4).
Allen should improve with a full offseason of work with the starters. He was baptized by fire as a true freshman, and there's a good chance he learned from his mistakes. Besides, you'd rather see a young QB take chances than become a checkdown robot.
Still, Arizona State excels at wreaking havoc and shattering a quarterback's confidence (see: Golson, Everett). If Allen tries to do too much instead of taking what the defense gives him—and this defense will give him room to operate—things could spiral out of control. This will be a great test for his maturity.
Arizona State Keys to Victory
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Defensive Conditioning
Arizona State returns nine defensive starters, many of whom have All-Pac-12 potential. If you toggled off the fatigue setting and didn't require substitutes, the Sun Devils would have one of the best defenses in the country.
As it stands, however, playing defense requires more than nine bodies. Against an offense that plays at Texas A&M's tempo, you need a depth chart full of contributors, a two-deep that can rotate players without waving a white flag. Otherwise, no matter how well you play in the first half, staying fresh and active for 60 minutes is unsustainable.
Here are Arizona State's defensive splits from 2014, according to the S&P+ ratings (via Bill Connelly of SB Nation). The number refers to its national rank. See if you can notice the problem:
- First Quarter: 7
- Second Quarter: 47
- Third Quarter: 58
- Fourth Quarter: 109
Returning most of last year's two-deep will help. Everyone who played last year is one year older, wiser, stronger and more conditioned. It's hard to imagine that this defense, which looks so good on paper, will wilt at the end of games the way it did in 2014.
Still, Week 1 games are notoriously emotional, especially at the start, when adrenaline is flowing and it's hard to consider the implications of not conserving energy. Texas A&M plays a frantic, chaotic style that lends itself to tiring defenses out. If the Sun Devils aren't careful, or if they can't trust their rotation defenders and rely too heavily on their starters, things could get ugly after halftime.
Dominate the Line of Scrimmage
Last year, Texas A&M had one of the worst run defenses in college football. For the season, it allowed 216 rushing yards per game and 5.01 yards per carry; against Power Five opponents, those numbers balloon to 255.3 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry.
The Aggies struggled most along the defensive line, where they were frequently bullied and occasionally scorched to ashes. Opponents averaged 5.9 yards per carry on first down, and Texas A&M finished No. 126 in the country in adjusted line yards (defensive line run defense) on standard downs, per Connelly.
The Aggies should improve thanks to Chavis, a line that returns six of its top seven tacklers and the addition of 5-star defensive tackle Daylon Mack (6'1", 335 lbs). But this is still the weakest part of A&M's defense, and Arizona State, which returns its starting center and both of its starting guards, has the pieces to take advantage.
Thick sophomore running back Demario Richard (5'10", 220 lbs) is exactly the type of physical, downhill runner who gives this defense problems. If he and the offensive line can dominate up the middle, Arizona State will drive methodically down the field and keep its defense resting on the sideline.
That sounds like a winning formula.
Texas A&M Players to Watch
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DE Myles Garrett
Arizona State returns three offensive linemen, but all three play inside. With two new starting tackles, it will struggle to contain Myles Garrett, who last year recorded 11.5 sacks en route to breaking Jadeveon Clowney's record for SEC freshmen. Garrett is a physical marvel with the size (6'5", 262 lbs) and burst to dominate a game on the edge. He's also deceptively competent in run support, which will prove important against Arizona State.
C Mike Matthews
For the first time since Sumlin's arrival, there are questions along the offensive line. Cedric Ogbuehi and Jarvis Harrison depart from last season, and it's still unclear who will start where. Fortunately, the Aggies return Mike Matthews—brother of former A&M tackle and first-round draft pick Jake Matthews—at center, where his experience should ballast the rest of the line. He'll be needed against an aggressive ASU defense that rushes from all sides and angles.
WR Speedy Noil
Speedy Noil arrived last season as the No. 8 recruit in the country and the reigning SPARQ National Champion. He showed flashes of greatness as a freshman but struggled to string together big games consecutively. His emergence on a weekly basis would raise the ceiling of this offense, and it's particularly important against an Arizona State team that allows free runners in space. Few college players are more dangerous in the open field.
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Arizona State Players to Watch
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QB Mike Bercovici
Arizona State played better last season when Mike Bercovici was the quarterback. Most of that concerned Taylor Kelly, who never fully recovered from the foot injury that cost him three games in September and October, but still: It has to mean something. Now, Bercovici is the full-time starter and an unquestioned team leader. Can he get the ball out on time and show more consistent accuracy in tight windows? The answer might determine the outcome.
WR D.J. Foster
D.J. Foster caught 63 passes in 2013 and 62 in 2014—and that was at running back. Now that he's moved full-time to wide receiver, he should flirt with 100 receptions and emerge as Bercovici's security blanket over the middle. He's a game-breaker in open space, but his ability to run sound technical routes from the slot, especially on third down, will be imperative on Saturday.
CB Lloyd Carrington
Lloyd Carrington is an aggressive cornerback with a knack for getting his hands on the football (just ask Notre Dame). Against a turnover-prone quarterback such as Allen, he will gamble and attempt to make big plays. He also has the size (6'0", 195 lbs) and physicality to hold his own against Aggies wide receiver Josh Reynolds (6'4", 195 lbs), although he'll need to take smart chances to avoid getting beat deep.
What They're Saying
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Texas A&M
Sumlin on the possibility of playing two quarterbacks—Allen and 5-star freshman Kyler Murray—at some point this season, per the Dallas Morning News:
"I really haven't done it before. We'll see. We've never started out that way. That doesn't mean that we won't. We'll see where we are in fall. Kyle is confident right now and should be. ... Kyler is a guy who all he's done is won. It's like anything else. It's not like Kyler didn't know Kyle Allen was the MVP of the bowl game. That didn't stop him. He's coming to compete, and that's what makes both of those guys who they are. Kyle is the same way. He committed before Johnny's [Manziel] junior year. He didn't know what was going to happen. Those guys aren't going to back down from each other. That's going to make us a better football team.
"
Chavis on his defensive philosophy, per Kate Hairopoulos of the Dallas Morning News:
"Football has changed a good bit, and we've had to tweak things. But ultimately, we've got a simple philosophy. We're going to play the run with numbers, we're going to try to outnumber you in the box, get an unblocked player to the point of attack, and we're going to rush the passer with speed. When you say that, you better have corners that can handle those one-on-one situations.
We're never going to sacrifice speed for size. We're going to get as much speed on the field as we can.
"
Arizona State
Graham on preparing for the crowd noise in Houston, per Doug Haller of the Arizona Republic:
"Obviously, I'm very familiar with what type of atmosphere we're going into; it's why we took the game. It's going to be one of the loudest places we've ever played. It'll be a big-time atmosphere, which we hope to get a lot of opportunities in.
There's a reason why they call [Texas A&M's crowd] the 12th man. They've got one of the best home atmospheres. Even though we're playing at a so-called neutral site, with their alumni base there, it will be a major crowd for them.
"
Defensive back Jordan Simone on how Bercovici has emerged as a leader, per Jon Gold of the Tucson Daily Star:
"Mike has always been a leader to me, but now that he is looked at as the leader of the team, it has helped his confidence. He's able to step up in front of the team and say what he needs to say, and people believe in him and listen to him."
Prediction
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It's hard to shake the memory of Week 1 last season.
For one week, Texas A&M looked like the best team in college football, and although the rest of the country would soon catch up with them, Sumlin proved he can punch a ranked opponent in the mouth when given seven months to draw up a game plan.
Combine that with the addition of Chavis, the amount of blue-chip underclassmen who saw the field last season and are now one year older and the questions concerning Arizona State's defensive depth, and it's easy to envision a scenario where Texas A&M springs the "upset."
Arizona State will keep it close and might even lead at some point in the second half. It has proved under Graham that it should never be taken lightly. But I still can't shake the feeling that it is overrated at No. 15 and that Texas A&M is underrated at No. 27.
There's a reason OddsShark.com lists the Aggies as the favorite.
Prediction: Texas A&M 38, Arizona State 28
All recruiting info refers to 247Sports' composite rankings.
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