Why TCU's Trevone Boykin Is Best Bet to Win 2015 Heisman Trophy

If there's one thing to know about the Heisman Trophy voting, it's that the process is extremely formulaic. As such, it inherently benefits some players while completely disregarding others. 

Perhaps no one in college football this year stands to gain from that algorithm like TCU's star quarterback Trevone Boykin. 

The truest example of Boykin's Heisman hype is in the numbers (in more ways than one). According to the most recent Heisman odds from Bovada.lv, courtesy of OddsShark.com, Boykin, along with Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott, is the odds-on favorite to win the award. 

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Boykin isn't so concerned about winning the Heisman as he is about getting TCU a national championship. At Big 12 media days, Frogs coach Gary Patterson raved about Boykin's levelheadedness in light of his new-found fame. 

“If I’m blessed enough to win it, and it comes back to Fort Worth, I’ll be proud,” Boykin told Kate Hairopoulos of the Dallas Morning News. “The city of Fort Worth and Dallas, where I’m from, will be proud. And I’m pretty sure my family will be too.”

Boykin may be modest, but there's good reason to believe in him as a Heisman candidate. Here's why: 

He Thrives in a Heisman Friendly Offense

To be clear, this isn't an indictment. Few quarterbacks in college football improved as dramatically in their passing game from 2013 to '14 as Boykin did. In fact, Boykin took such a dramatic step forward that he is now considered a player to watch for the 2016 NFL draft, according to Bleacher Report draft guru Matt Miller. 

Of course, Heisman-esque numbers don't just appear out of thin air. They might be cushioned by a certain type of scheme, but without personal improvement Boykin isn't averaging 355 yards of total offense a game and scoring 42 total touchdowns like he did last year. 

Passing Yards	3,901
Passing TDs	33
Rushing Yards	707
Rushing TDs	8

As insane as it sounds, he can get even better, too. The Frogs return practically their entire offense from last year. To think that Boykin could approach the 50-touchdown mark is mind-boggling but nowhere near impossible. No other position allows for that kind of scoring responsibility. 

That puts him firmly in focus with Heisman voters, as Zac Ellis of Sports Illustrated explained: 

"

Why do Heisman voters tend to favor offensive players? For one, the numbers. Most offensive candidates boast gaudy stats, especially with running quarterbacks so prevalent in today's game. Five of the last seven Heisman winners have been dual-threat passers who threw for at least 2,500 yards and ran for at least 600 yards. Voters love players who can do it all.

"

And Boykin can do it all. His scrambling ability is well-noted. He's clearly improved as a passer. He can even play a little receiver (not that he would now). When a player can be versatile and touch the ball on every play, it gives him an instant leg up.

Long story short, Boykin plays the right position in the right offense. 

The Process of Elimination

Conversely, whereas Boykin benefits from playing the right position, others are naturally eliminated for playing the wrong position. 

Take offensive linemen, for example. An O-lineman may very well be the best player on the field every week, but so often the O-line is referred to as a group position. It doesn't naturally promote individualism. And other than grading and pancakes, there's not a tangible number you can explicitly attach to linemen. Sacks allowed could still be the result of missed assignments elsewhere, an indecisive quarterback or great protection meeting better coverage. Furthermore, rushing numbers rack up a lot easier when the guy carrying the ball is Nick Chubb and not Trent Richardson running into a wall of blockers. 

And voters are a people of numbers. 

Even then, that's not always enough. A true defensive player has no chance in this day and age of winning the Heisman. Oh, sure, there are the Manti Te'os or the Ndamukong Suhs of the world who tackle, sack and disrupt their way to New York City for the finalist ceremony, but they are the rare ones. The last defensive player to win the Heisman was Michigan cornerback Charles Woodson in 1997—and he did more than just cover wide receivers. 

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Referring back to the Sports Illustrated piece, Ellis also brings up a sound point about as to why defensive players are Heisman long shots: In today's game of spread and/or uptempo offenses, how we view elite defenses (and defenders) changes. The end result is that guys like Arizona linebacker Scooby Wright III or Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa face longer odds now more than ever of winning the Heisman even though their stats pop off the page.  

All Eyes Are on TCU

The other thing Boykin has going for him is he plays on a nationally relevant team. The Horned Frogs were the overwhelming favorite to win the Big 12 this year as determined by media members. Additionally, preseason playoff projections usually have TCU at least in the conversation.

Assuming those predictions come to fruition, odds are Boykin will be on every Heisman short list. His team's highlights will be played constantly throughout game day. He and TCU will be heavy talking points for ESPN's College GameDay and other college football-related shows. 

Want to at least make it to New York for the Heisman ceremony? People have to talk about you first. 

Boykin also has the chance to "peak" in the Heisman race at the right time. If we assume that TCU makes its way through the '15 schedule without falling off the face of the planet, the biggest game could come at the end of the year at home against Baylor. This is already the game of the year on paper in the Big 12. With both programs trying to make the playoff field again, there could be high stakes nationally as well. From a viewership standpoint, this game gets top billing. Baylor-TCU occupies the prime-time slot on ESPN the Friday following Thanksgiving. You can't get much of a bigger spotlight than that. 

It's the perfect time for Boykin to have his Heisman game. The so-called Heisman moment was born with Doug Flutie's Hail Mary against Miami back in November 1984. Flutie was already having a banner year, but the Hail Mary was the right play in the right game against the right opponent at the right time. 

The Heisman, among other things, is about how the best players perform in the biggest settings. 

Can Boykin Survive Multiple Losses?

As much as folks may want to pin wins and losses directly on a quarterback's shoulders, that's ultimately not a quarterback statistic. Still, that hasn't stopped Heisman pollsters from voting for the "best player (quarterback) on the best team" before. 

John Walters of Newsweek posted a worthy talking point on Twitter this week, noting that TCU's final two games come against Oklahoma and Baylor. If the preseason Big 12 poll were to play out as predicted, those would be the two toughest tests for TCU. And if the Frogs lose either of those games, would it hurt Boykin's Heisman stock?

It's certainly possible, but the details are important. While rare, there are fairly recent examples when wins and losses didn't directly impact the Heisman voting. The two quarterbacks to break the rule were former Florida quarterback Tim Tebow in 2007 and former Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III in 2011. Specifically, their respective teams lost three games during those Heisman-winning seasons. 

(Another example is former Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel. In 2012, the year Manziel won the Heisman, the Aggies lost two games but beat Alabama in November.) 

You can see Griffin's and Tebow's stats, along with their team's records, in the table below: 

Player	Passing Stats	Rushing Stats	Total TDs	Team W-L	Team Record (Final 2 games)	Yards Per Game Average in Losses
Tim Tebow	3,132 Yards	838 Yards	51	9-3	2-0	241
Robert Griffin III	3,998 Yards	644 Yards	45	9-3	2-0	400

The common theme between these two is that, even in defeat, Grffin and Tebow weren't held completely in check. Tebow still averaged 241 all-purpose yards per game and tallied eight total touchdowns in three losses. Griffin, whose total yards came almost exclusively through the air in Baylor's three losses, still put up 400 yards of offense. In a 36-35 loss to Kansas State, Griffin threw five touchdown passes. 

History suggests Boykin can survive multiple losses if the numbers are still there. The key distinction is that Baylor and Florida went on late-season runs. Obviously, a loss to either Oklahoma or Baylor, or both, would test this theory.

Is Being the Odds-On Favorite a Good Thing?

Is being an odds-on favorite helpful or hurtful for Boykin? It might not matter at all, actually. 

We've seen examples of when preseason Heisman favorites go on to win the award and examples of when someone comes out of nowhere. In fact, you don't have to look back very far. Last year's winner, Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, was determined to be a "clear preseason Heisman pick" by ESPN insider Travis Haney in August 2014. With Mariota penciled in as the year-long favorite, not even Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon, who rushed for a then-single-game FBS record 408 yards against Nebraska, could take that title away. And Gordon finished the '14 regular season with 2,336 yards. 

That doesn't bode well for the likes of Chubb or Elliott if Boykin starts the season as a Heisman favorite and lives up to the billing. 

At the same time, the two previous Heisman winners before Mariota, Manziel and former Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston, burst onto the scene with surprising redshirt freshman seasons. What that means is Boykin isn't safe if another quarterback from a prominent Power Five team emerges with video game-type numbers. 

Trying to pin Heisman winners before the season can be similar to trying to nail down the playoff field months ahead of time. It's fun but ultimately little more than a game of blindfolded dart throwing. The unpredictability of college football is in large part what makes it so appealing. 

But when you look at the history and formula of the Heisman, there are certain boxes that annually get checked. And Boykin has those appropriate boxes. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com unless noted otherwise.