Updated 53-Man Roster Projections for New England Patriots Post-Preseason Week 3
It's been a long time since the New England Patriots opened training camp, and an initial look at the 53-man roster was lacking much of the context we've gained over the past month.
But now, with almost all of the practices and three of the preseason games in the books, we have a much better and more informed idea of what the Patriots' final roster could look like.
Make no mistake, there is still plenty of time for plenty of changes to take place. The first set of cuts will take place on Tuesday, September 1. Those cuts alone could render some of these predictions obsolete.
That being said, even if there is a surprise cut or two before the Patriots deplete their roster down to 53 players, the overall complexion of the roster will be largely unchanged. With that in mind, here's a look at one man's 53-man roster prediction.
Quarterback
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Starter: Tom Brady
Backup: Jimmy Garoppolo
In the past, there's never been any reason to explore the Patriots depth chart at quarterback. It's been Tom Brady and his backup for as long as anyone can remember. Sometimes it'll be just one backup, other times there will be two backups.
But Brady's four-game suspension throws the situation into more flux than what we're accustomed to. We're still waiting to find out if Brady will, indeed, be absent for the first four games of the regular season; if he is, the Patriots have no choice but to keep backup quarterback Ryan Lindley on the roster as insurance on a potential worst-case scenario if Jimmy Garoppolo gets injured.
We haven't seen anything from Lindley yet, but as the only other quarterback on the roster, it's only right to expect that he would be kept for such a situation.
Either way, we should only anticipate the Patriots to carry two quarterbacks on their roster headed into Week 1.
Running Back
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Starter: Jonas Gray
Backups: Brandon Bolden, James White, Dion Lewis, Travaris Cadet, James Develin
LeGarrette Blount does not count against the Patriots' 53-man roster due to his one-game suspension. That allows the Patriots a little extra room to keep someone who may eventually either be cut or land on the practice squad. Meanwhile, Jonas Gray has the best shot of being the Patriots' primary between-the-tackles back to start the season. He has the best skill set for the job, and has been one of the first backs on the field in the Patriots' two preseason games.
The battle for the third-down duties has been intriguing to watch. James White and Dion Lewis have taken turns showing off their ability in that role; White had a strong showing against the Green Bay Packers, with four receptions for 52 yards, while Lewis had eight total touches against the New Orleans Saints, taking three carries for 12 yards and a touchdown and catching all five passes thrown his way for 36 yards.
Those two could push out Travaris Cadet in the third-down role, but Blount's one-week absence opens up the spot for the time being.
James Develin suffered a broken tibia in the Patriots' third preseason game, according to Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald. That being said, he is the only true fullback on the roster, and should either make the final 53-man roster or end up on the short-term injured reserve, which would mean he doesn't count against the roster total until at least Week 7.
Wide Receiver
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Starters: Brandon LaFell, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola
Backups: Reggie Wayne, Aaron Dobson, Matthew Slater
There have been a slew of injuries at the wide receiver position, but none of them have had much of an impact on the Patriots' final roster projection—just in how the Patriots have approached the middle and bottom of the depth chart.
Brandon LaFell is still on the physically unable to perform list nursing a foot injury, and there could be room for another receiver to sneak onto the roster if LaFell remains on the PUP list at the beginning of the regular season. Julian Edelman has not practiced since August 2, Aaron Dobson has also not practiced in quite some time while nursing a hamstring injury and the Patriots just placed both Brian Tyms and Brandon Gibson on injured reserve.
A pair of tweets from Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald paint the picture that the Patriots haven't given up on Dobson just yet despite the injury, but in signing veteran wide receiver Reggie Wayne, they have at least shown that they won't wait for the injury bug to release its grip of the depth chart. Expectations should be kept reasonably low for Wayne as he learns a brand-new system with just two weeks to go before the season, but he is virtually a lock for the roster.
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Tight End
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Starter: Rob Gronkowski
Backups: Scott Chandler, Michael Hoomanawanui, Michael Williams
At this point, there's no reason to make any major changes in the projected roster. The Patriots have already cut ties with one of their draft picks, tight end A.J. Derby. They have also added two tight ends to the mix, Asante Cleveland and Michael Williams, via trades.
We haven't seen enough from either Cleveland or Williams to project them to push backup Michael Hoomanawanui out of a roster spot, but Williams could still sneak on as a fourth tight end. Hoomanawanui should be feeling some measure of pressure from those acquisitions, but he has far more experience in the offense and the Patriots have kept him in that role for years.
The only other tight end who could threaten for a roster spot is Jimmay Mundine, who has had a strong enough summer to warrant consideration for the practice squad.
Offensive Line
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Starters: Nate Solder, Tre' Jackson, Bryan Stork, Shaq Mason, Sebastian Vollmer
Backups: Marcus Cannon, Cameron Fleming, Ryan Wendell, Josh Kline
If fully healthy, the Patriots have very little doubt on their starting offensive line. The only spot that could be called into question is left guard, where Shaq Mason has been playing this preseason while Ryan Wendell has been out with an injury. Wendell has recently made his return off the physically unable to perform list, so we should get some clarity as to how the Patriots are feeling at that spot soon.
The Patriots love positional versatility on the offensive line because it allows them to carry fewer players while filling more spots on their roster. Wendell and Mason both have versatility between the center and guard spots, and Marcus Cannon and Cameron Fleming both have some flexibility between the tackle and guard spots.
Josh Kline has also earned some reps as a backup center with Stork out of action lately, and although David Andrews has had a strong training camp, he hasn't played multiple spots like all the other backup linemen. Andrews is a prime candidate for the practice squad, but he would have to beat out a more versatile player if he is to make the final roster.
Defensive Line
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Starting defensive ends: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich
Backup defensive ends: Trey Flowers, Jabaal Sheard, Geneo Grissom
Starting defensive tackles: Malcom Brown, Dominique Easley
Backup defensive tackles: Sealver Siliga, Alan Branch
There are no big surprises on the defensive line. Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich are the starters on the end, as they have been for the past several years; two former first-round picks in Malcom Brown and Dominique Easley will start at the defensive tackle spots, which is also not a huge surprise given the Patriots' investment in them.
Alan Branch might be on the roster bubble, but with Chris Jones on the physically unable to perform list, there's an extra roster spot—and there just aren't that many big-bodied interior defensive linemen to choose from. That being said, the Patriots may need to keep an extra defensive tackle for depth purposes if they plan on running more of a 3-4 defensive scheme in 2015.
Trey Flowers, Jabaal Sheard and Geneo Grissom give the Patriots some flexibility between the 3-4 and 4-3 fronts with their ability to stand up or play with their hand on the line. All three are better as true defensive ends, but can rush from a two-point stance in a pinch.
The only surprise here could be Rufus Johnson, who has made a lot of progress in training camp. He could be kept on the practice squad, but if an injury opens up a roster spot, expect him to be the first one in line to make a surprise appearance on the 53-man roster.
Linebacker
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Starters: Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins
Backups: Jonathan Freeny, James Morris
The starting lineup has no surprises. If all are healthy, Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins should all play nearly every snap for the Patriots. The three could also share responsibilities in nickel situations, since all three bring a different set of skills to the table (Hightower as an end-of-the-line rusher and blitzing linebacker, Collins in coverage and blitz packages and Mayo as a jack-of-all-trades option).
After those three is where things start to get a little hazy.
With Dane Fletcher on the physically unable to perform list at the start of the season, the Patriots have an extra spot for a linebacker that might not have otherwise made the roster. Jonathan Freeny and James Morris both have the value on special teams that makes them prime candidates for back-of-the-roster spots.
These competitions will be worth monitoring in the final days headed into the regular season and in the final preseason game.
Secondary
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Starting cornerbacks: Malcolm Butler, Tarell Brown
Backups cornerbacks: Logan Ryan, Bradley Fletcher, Robert McClain
Starting safeties: Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung
Backups safeties: Duron Harmon, Jordan Richards, Nate Ebner
Malcolm Butler, Tarell Brown and Logan Ryan are the first three on the depth chart; their spots are virtually locked up. Other than those three, though, nothing is a given.
Bradley Fletcher has made progress recently, and notched a pair of pass breakups against the New Orleans Saints; Robert McClain has been on and off the field as a slot cornerback; Darryl Roberts could start off the year on the short-term injured reserve if the Patriots hope that he can make a return around the midseason mark.
That being said, with the recent experiment of Devin McCourty at cornerback, it appears nothing is off the table. McCourty was back working with the safeties at practice this past week, according to Doug Kyed of NESN.com, so his move to cornerback may have been temporary. As one of the best free safeties in the NFL, it would be wise for the Patriots to keep him on the back end of their defense.
The safety spot next to McCourty, however, remains undecided. Patrick Chung has been the starting strong safety in the first two preseason games, and could remain in that role for the regular season. That being said, Duron Harmon got the start at free safety against the Saints with McCourty at cornerback. The Patriots appear open to trying new things and experimenting with different combinations, which makes this a fluid situation.
Specialists
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Kicker: Stephen Gostkowski
Punter: Ryan Allen
Long snapper: Joe Cardona
No surprises here. The three specialist jobs go to the only men on the roster who are capable of filling them. The Patriots didn't even attempt to have a competition at any of the three spots this summer, and why should they? Stephen Gostkowski is coming off one of the best years of his career and has converted 93.6 percent of his field-goal tries over the past two seasons.
Ryan Allen earned 40.5 net yards per punt in 2014, the ninth-highest average for any punter in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. He has been steady since entering the NFL, and he is worthy of continuing in his spot as the only punter on the roster.
Joe Cardona was just the fourth long snapper to ever be drafted, and he is the only long snapper on the Patriots roster, so it would be a stunner if he doesn't make the final 53-man cutdown. That being said, he is awaiting approval from the Navy to play football in 2015, but according to David Steele of Sporting News, the Navy is leaning toward giving him the approval he needs to play this season.
Unless otherwise noted, all quotes obtained firsthand.
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