Every Top 25 College Football Team's Toughest Game in 2015
The offseason is nearly over. The time for predictions basically is as well. In the not-too-distant future, everyone is just going to have to go out and play.
The beauty of the college football season is that it provides unexpected surprises. Games that didn't look like they would be good at all end up being classics. But on paper, not all games are created equal. While looking at the preseason AP Top 25, we lay out the single toughest game for each ranked team.
We made selections on past trends, potential matchup problems among positions and any national (i.e. playoff) ramifications. Some selections were easy; some weren't. With that, check them out in the following slides.
No. 25: Tennessee
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Toughest Game: at Alabama (Oct. 24)
Tennessee lost last year's edition of its rivalry with Alabama 34-20, but it served as quarterback Joshua Dobbs' introduction party. After falling behind early 27-0, Dobbs helped the Vols outscore the Tide 20-7 in two-and-a-half quarters. He finished the game with 267 total yards of offense and two touchdowns.
This year's game is in Tuscaloosa and should be against the best defense Tennessee faces all season. This will be a true litmus test for Dobbs, running back Jalen Hurd, the receiving corps and an offensive line that was sketchy last season.
The Vols have a couple of tough games before Alabama against Arkansas and Georgia, but both are at home. The early nonconference game against Oklahoma is one of the most intriguing games of the season. But if Tennessee wants to show it has taken the next step forward in bringing the program back to prominence, a good showing against the Tide will go a long way.
After all, Tennessee hasn't come within single digits against the Tide since 2009 and last beat them in 2006.
No. 24: Missouri
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Toughest Game: at Georgia (Oct. 17)
When you go on the road to face the preseason SEC East favorite, yeah, that's probably going to get the "toughest game" billing. Missouri may have won the last two East division titles, but its road trip to Athens in mid-October figures to be the Tigers' toughest test.
A home game against Florida could serve as a possible upset of the "look ahead" variety. Tennessee is a home game, and Arkansas and Mississippi State are Mizzou's two SEC West opponents. That leaves the Bulldogs as the undisputed toughest opponent of the year.
Never mind that quarterback Maty Mauk threw four interceptions against Georgia last year in a 34-0 rout. Mizzou has to defend running back Nick Chubb, arguably the best player in all of college football. Last year's game against the Tigers was Chubb's breakout performance (38 carries, 143 yards, 1 TD). As Michael Mandell of the Missourian notes, the defensive line is one of the major questions for Mizzou heading into the season.
No. 23: Boise State
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Toughest Game: at Utah State (Oct. 16)
There's an argument to be made that the season opener against Washington is Boise State's most difficult game. It certainly has intrigue since it marks Huskies head coach Chris Petersen's return to his former stomping grounds. However, Washington lost four of its best defenders to the NFL draft and is still searching for a quarterback. (ESPN.com's David Lombardi ranks the Huskies' QB situation last in the Pac-12, for what it's worth).
Instead, let's move ahead on the schedule to a Friday game at Utah State in mid-October. First, it'll be a short week for the Broncos, who play at Colorado State the Saturday before. As such, Boise has to turn right around and head to Logan, Utah. So the Broncos are facing the preseason No. 3 and No. 2 teams in the Mountain West's Mountain Division in a week's time.
Then there's Aggies quarterback Chuckie Keeton. Though oft-injured, he is one of the more dynamic and entertaining quarterbacks in college football, regardless of conference. Additionally, Utah State returns a veteran defense that finished near the top of the Mountain West last year.
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No. 22: Arizona
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Toughest Game: at USC (Nov. 7)
Arizona's schedule has its fair share of tough stretches. A late September game against UCLA could very well set the tone for each team in the Pac-12 South race. The following week, the Wildcats have to travel to Stanford.
But the November slate is brutal, starting with a road trip to USC. Obviously, the Trojans are the preseason media favorite to win the conference. But this has been a tightly contested battle in the past. In the last eight meetings, USC is 6-2 against Arizona but has never won by more than a touchdown.
Arizona better be ready for a shootout, too. The Trojans should have one of the top passing attacks in the country. The risk of losing to USC is that it could spiral into a letdown game against Utah the following week. To close out the season is rival Arizona State. The point is we could find out quickly if Arizona can legitimately repeat as Pac-12 South champs in November.
No. 21: Stanford
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Toughest Game: vs. Oregon (Nov. 14)
For the first time on the top-25 countdown, the toughest game selection comes at home. In Stanford's case, it's the yearly showdown with Oregon.
You could argue the Cardinal's Nov. 28 game against Notre Dame is its toughest test—and understandably so. The Irish are looking to make a playoff push and return a ton of NFL-caliber talent. The way that game falls at the end of the season, Stanford will have played Oregon, an upset-minded Cal and then Notre Dame in successive weeks.
That's tough.
However, Oregon and Stanford have shared Pac-12 North championships ever since the conference split into two divisions. Even without Marcus Mariota, the Ducks are loaded with skill talent, and Stanford could have to deal with either Jeff Lockie or Vernon Adams Jr. at quarterback—or both. The Cardinal have done a good job of winning low-scoring, tight games against Oregon, but if the Ducks can score points, Stanford hasn't shown the ability to play catch-up in recent years.
No. 20: Wisconsin
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Toughest Game: vs. Alabama (Sept. 5, Arlington, Texas)
Some choices on this list are tough and thoroughly debatable. This isn't one of those instances. Without a doubt, Wisconsin's toughest game of the year is its opener against Alabama in Arlington. Road games against Nebraska and Minnesota have Big Ten West division implications, but nothing that matches this.
Never mind that the Tide will be the highest-ranked team the Badgers play all season, at least from a preseason poll standpoint. Matchup-wise, this one could be a nightmare if Wisconsin can't bank on its ground game.
How could that be? Running back Corey Clement rushed for nearly 1,000 yards last year as a backup to Melvin Gordon, but the offensive line is dealing with injuries and youth. The last opponent you want to face first in that situation is Alabama's stellar defensive line.
Wisconsin has an excellent defense of its own, so a low-scoring game in Texas is certainly possible. However, if the Badgers can't get any sort of passing game going—or, at least the threat of the pass—it could be a long day if the run game is held in check.
No. 19: Oklahoma
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Toughest Game: at Baylor (Nov. 14)
Take your pick: Oklahoma's toughest game is against Baylor or TCU the following week. Since we're talking, the Bedlam game at Oklahoma State to round out the season could be interesting.
But only one of those three teams has had the Sooners' number for the past two years, and that's the Bears. In the last two meetings, Baylor has defeated Oklahoma by an average score of 45-13. When in your lifetime did you ever think you would see something like that?
Pass defense could be a concern for the Sooners this year, which would present a bad matchup with Baylor's one-two receiver punch of Corey Coleman and KD Cannon. However, the more interesting battle could be in the trenches. From top to bottom, the Bears have the best O-line/D-line combo in the Big 12. It's nothing you'd expect to utter, but can the Sooners control the line of scrimmage?
No. 18: Arkansas
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Toughest Game: vs. Auburn (Oct. 24)
On paper, Razorbacks fans are probably inclined to circle the Oct. 10 game at Alabama. After all, Arkansas hasn't defeated the Tide since 2006. But while that might be the game the Hogs want to win the most, it's not necessarily the toughest game.
Instead, the home game against Auburn two weeks later gets the nod here. It was a limited look, but we saw what Tigers quarterback Jeremy Johnson did to Arkansas' defense in one half: 243 passing yards and two touchdowns. Without top edge-rusher Trey Flowers, Arkansas needs someone to step up and assist against the pass. Otherwise, it could be another long day for the defense.
We know that Arkansas can run the ball as well as anyone in the country—and Auburn wasn't exactly a run-stuffing defense a year ago. The problem is that playing keep-a-way isn't always the recipe to beat the Tigers. If new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp can have even a moderate impact in year one, the Hogs could be in trouble if Auburn starts racking up points.
No. 17: Ole Miss
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Toughest Game: at Alabama (Sept. 19)
One of the biggest upsets in college football a year ago will be Ole Miss' toughest game for 2015. Week 3. At Alabama.
The Rebels have enough NFL-caliber talent to go toe-to-toe with the Tide. But the biggest area of concern for this team is in the run game, as Hugh Kellenberger of the Clarion-Ledger wrote this week:
"Despite having the 10th-best passing attack in the country by efficiency, Ole Miss struggled with per-play efficiency (85th) and found itself in situations where it became overly predictable — like passing on almost 80 percent of passing down situations (these are the kind of tendencies TCU was able to exploit in the Peach Bowl).
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Jaylen Walton and Jordan Wilkins should split the carries, but they'll be going up against one of the top run defenses in the country, if not the best. Breaking in a new quarterback could complicate matters further in an early Week 3 game.
No. 16: Georgia Tech
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Toughest Game: at Clemson (Oct. 10)
Does Georgia Tech have it rough or what? The ACC may not be considered the best Power Five conference out there, but the Yellow Jackets get Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State and then Georgia in nonconference play. And that's on top of a wide-open divisional schedule.
Quarterback Justin Thomas is a star, but the biggest question around him is who steps up at the running back and wide receiver spots? Georgia Tech won several games in shootout fashion a year ago, but will that be the case this time around?
Clemson has probably the best offense in the ACC and an inexperienced but talented defense. Going on the road to Death Valley will be a challenge, and remember that Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson was injured during last year's game against Tech.
No. 15: Arizona State
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Toughest Game: vs. Oregon (Oct. 29)
Arizona State's season opener against Texas A&M is all kinds of interesting, and back-to-back games against USC and UCLA might provide this team with the toughest stretch of the season. But the toughest individual game? We'll go with Oregon on a Thursday night in late October.
History hasn't been on Arizona State's side against Oregon; the Sun Devils haven't defeated the Ducks since 2004. But more importantly, the losses of leading tackler Damarious Randall and pass-rusher Marcus Hardison leave some holes to fill against the Ducks offense.
If Arizona State does have a chance, it'll be up to quarterback Mike Bercovici and receiver D.J. Foster to rack up the yards and the points.
No. 14: LSU
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Toughest Game: at Ole Miss (Nov. 21)
Choosing between Alabama and Ole Miss was difficult, but from left to right, front to back, the Rebels have as talented a defense as LSU is going to see all season. Marquis Haynes, Robert Nkemdiche, Denzel Nkemdiche, Tony Conner—there are playmakers at every level.
LSU is going to lean heavily on running back Leonard Fournette this season—as it should. As a freshman, he topped 1,000 yards on the ground. But there are still legitimate questions about quarterback Brandon Harris—the current front-runner, according to head coach Les Miles—and whether he can take the Tigers offense to the next level. Or even to a serviceable level.
No. 13: UCLA
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Toughest Game: at Stanford (Oct. 15)
UCLA returns one of the more experienced teams in the country after winning 10 games a year ago. The big difference is that true freshman Josh Rosen will be leading the offense. Head coach Jim Mora made that announcement this week.
While Rosen has certainly earned that job, it still comes with a learning curve. He's a freshman, and he's going to make freshman mistakes. “You have to go through the good times and the bad times,” offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone told Chris Foster of the Los Angeles Times. “It’s not going to be one of those things where if someone thinks his shoe is untied, he’ll get yanked.”
Rosen is going to get a taste of a top Pac-12 defense when he plays Stanford on a Thursday night in mid-October. It won't be the first difficult game Rosen will have played all season—BYU, Arizona and Arizona State precede the game against the Cardinal—but it will be arguably his toughest road game.
How will Rosen respond to the adversity he may face? That will be the key question.
No. 12: Clemson
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Toughest Game: vs. Notre Dame (Oct. 3)
Notre Dame's trip to Clemson in early October could be one of the best games of the entire season. On paper, it certainly has playoff implications written all over it like Oregon vs. Michigan State and Alabama vs. Auburn.
The horse race between the offenses should be fun, but the Irish return just about everybody from last year's defense—and even get some suspended players back as well. How much trouble does Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith cause? Quarterback Deshaun Watson and Co. will have their hands full.
Conversely, Clemson's rebuilt defense will be going up against an offense that features potential first-round draft pick Ronnie Stanley (OT) and one of the deepest receiving units the Tigers will see all year.
No. 11: Notre Dame
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Toughest Game: vs. USC (Oct. 17)
Speaking of the Irish, their toughest game comes a couple of weeks after the Clemson road trip. Yes, facing the Tigers will be tough, but the end of a brutal stretch from mid-September to mid-October ends with a home game against USC.
Both teams have their eyes on a playoff spot, and the game in South Bend could have make-or-break qualities to it. Specifically, how does Notre Dame's defense fare against the passing attack of the Trojans? Notre Dame has plenty of returning starters but can improve some in its pass rush.
Last year, Notre Dame was very much in the playoff discussion until its loss to Florida State. After that, a series of injuries and ball-security problems took their toll. Can the Irish avoid a similar slump this year after playing in a big game?
No. 10: Florida State
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Toughest Game: at Clemson (Nov. 7)
What does a "rebuilding year" look like for Florida State? The Seminoles are ranked No. 10 in the preseason AP poll, but they have so many key components to replace on both sides. The schedule allows the Seminoles to get off to a good start, but we'll find out more about how good, bad or inconsistent this team might be in the second half of the year.
Within that second-half schedule, a road game at Clemson should prove to be full of all sorts of challenges. The Tigers came oh-so-close to beating Florida State in Tallahassee last year when the 'Noles didn't have Jameis Winston, but this year's game carries its own storylines.
Can FSU's new-look wide receiver group compare to Clemson's secondary? Who wins between FSU corner Jalen Ramsey and Clemson's wideouts?
There's a lot of skill on the field, but can the Seminoles put it together in time for this key late-season road game?
No. 9: Georgia
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Toughest Game: at Auburn (Nov. 14)
Everyone remembers what happened last time Georgia went to Auburn, right? Oh, you don't? Well, let us remind you.
Just kidding. We know you remember.
Anyway, this game pits the preseason SEC East favorite against the preseason SEC champion—but not SEC West champion. This could be another big game for Bulldogs running back Nick Chubb if Auburn's rush defense is subpar.
However, don't be surprised if this game turns into a shootout. If that does happen, how much pressure will that put on Georgia's quarterback—whoever that may be?
No. 8: USC
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Toughest Game: at Oregon (Nov. 21)
USC will have some high-profile games this season, including trips to Arizona State and Notre Dame. However, the November away game at Oregon could be a prequel to the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Offensively, the Trojans should have no problem matching Oregon's firepower, but how does the rebuilt defensive line, marred by injuries in the spring, perform against the Ducks offense? USC has a terrific back-end defense with Su'a Cravens and Adoree' Jackson, but they can only do so much for so long. At some point, USC needs to get in the backfield.
If the slippery Vernon Adams Jr. is playing quarterback, that could be difficult. In a tough environment, this is easily USC's toughest game.
No. 7: Oregon
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Toughest Game: at Michigan State (Sept. 12)
Not only is this the first road game for Oregon, but it comes against a team ranked in the preseason Top 10. On top of that, Michigan State will be looking for revenge after losing last year's game to the Ducks in Eugene.
The Spartans certainly have their share of questions. Who steps up at receiver? Who replaces the production and leadership of injured linebacker Ed Davis? But make no mistake: The Spartans can score. They had the top passing offense in the Big Ten a year ago, and quarterback Connor Cook is one of the best in the conference.
How does Oregon's quarterback situation shake out by Week 2? Is it Vernon Adams Jr. or Jeff Lockie? Either way, the Ducks will get a tough test right out of the gate that could set the tone for the season.
No. 6: Auburn
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Toughest Game: vs. Alabama (Nov. 28)
I mean, duh, right? The Iron Bowl has had all sorts of SEC West, SEC and national championship/playoff implications over the past several years. It's shaping up to be another big rivalry game this year.
The Tigers should have a nice one-two punch at running back with Roc Thomas and Jovon Robinson, but how well do they perform against Alabama's shutdown run defense? Does that put more pressure on quarterback Jeremy Johnson to pass the Tigers to victory?
On defense, can Auburn slow down Alabama's ground game? Defensive end Carl Lawson could end up playing a huge role in this game if it comes down to one side needing to make a huge defensive play.
No. 5: Michigan State
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Toughest Game: at Ohio State (Nov. 21)
As far as conference games go, Michigan State at Ohio State is up there among the games of the year. Regardless of the outcome, it's possible the Big Ten can get both of these teams into the playoff.
But anytime you have to play the defending national champion, it's tough. The Buckeyes are loaded everywhere, but the season-ending leg injury to receiver Noah Brown could be something to watch. Keep in mind that the Spartans are rebuilding their secondary and have already lost linebacker Ed Davis for the year.
Winning in Columbus when so much is expected of Ohio State would easily be the biggest upset of the year.
No. 4: Baylor
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Biggest Game: at TCU (Nov. 27)
This is the game of the year in the Big 12, without a doubt. After Baylor and TCU missed the playoffs last year, so much is going to be riding on this game—provided there's no more than one loss between the two.
Yes, Baylor's offense will be excellent once again, but it's possible TCU could have the best offensive team in the Big 12 with so many players coming back. It's in potential shootouts like this that the departure of linebacker Bryce Hager could prove to be huge. Additionally, the Bears have questions to answer in their secondary.
Overall, the gap between the top two teams in the Big 12—Baylor and TCU—and the projected third- and-fourth-place teams (Oklahoma and Oklahoma State) isn't that big, so any one of those games could be tough for Baylor. But there's no denying the game with TCU has the most weight given where the Horned Frogs are in the national landscape.
No. 3: Alabama
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Toughest Game: at Auburn (Nov. 28)
Just like Auburn, the Iron Bowl should be Alabama's toughest test of the season. That said, the Tide play not one, not two, but six other preseason AP Top 25 teams.
The danger in playing Auburn is not just based in it being a rivalry game where anything can happen. The danger is trying to keep up with the Tigers. This actually wasn't an issue in last year's Iron Bowl when Alabama outlasted Auburn in a shootout, but the Tide don't have the veteran playmakers in Blake Sims and Amari Cooper anymore.
That could put some pressure on Alabama's defense—especially on the back end. And the Tide have been vulnerable against the pass over the past couple of years.
No. 2: TCU
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Toughest Game: vs. Baylor (Nov. 27)
The biggest difference here from Baylor's perspective is how TCU's defense handles the Bears up front. No other Big 12 team has a better offensive line, and the Frogs no longer have Chucky Hunter, one of the better D-linemen in the conference a year ago.
Head coach Gary Patterson is a defensive guru and deserves the benefit of the doubt in coaching up the Frogs defense, just as Baylor coach Art Briles deserves the benefit of the doubt for his offense. But going up against an All-American tackle like Spencer Drango might prove to be one of the most difficult assignments of the season.
Overall, this game favors Baylor in the trenches—and on both sides of the ball, too.
No. 1: Ohio State
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Toughest Game: at Virginia Tech (Sept. 7)
The Buckeyes, a unanimous No. 1 selection in the preseason AP poll, are big favorites to win every game this year. Finding the toughest game on the schedule is, as it turns out, actually kind of tough.
The Michigan State game will be the Big Ten game of the year and an obvious choice, but I'm tempted to go with the season opener against Virginia Tech if only because of all the suspensions and injuries that have plagued the defending national champs recently.
Who's out? Stud defensive end Joey Bosa, H-backs Jalin Marshall and Dontre Wilson and wide receiver Corey Smith. Those four are serving a one-game suspension for violating athletic department policy. Additionally, receiver Noah Brown is done for the year with a leg injury.
Ohio State should still be favored, but Blacksburg is a hard place to play, and the Hokies are going to be fired up. The reigning champs better be ready.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
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