Why Big Ten Football Can Survive Another Slow Start

We're coming up on nearly a year—14 days, in fact—Sept. 7, 2014: the day, as B/R colleague Adam Kramer wrote at the time, the Big Ten died. 

The losses, you know by now, were cringe-worthy: Virginia Tech 35, Ohio State 21; Oregon 46, Michigan State 27; Notre Dame 31, Michigan 0; Northern Illinois 23, Northwestern 15; Central Michigan 38, Purdue 17.

Even some of the wins weren't much better: Nebraska 31, McNeese State 24; Iowa 17, Ball State 13; Maryland 24, South Florida 17; Rutgers 38, Howard 25.  

Of course, we also know that the Big Ten was never really dead. Temporarily flatlined, maybe, but not fully gone. Ohio State would rally from its early-season loss, slide into the playoff field as a No. 4 seed and win the national championship. 

This isn't intended to be a "gotcha" moment with hindsight being perfectly clear. Plenty of people thought the Big Ten's playoff hopes were dead following Week 2 of the 2014 season. Just as many played into its status as college football's piñata: 

However, it was a teachable moment. As we came to find out, writing off many teams, let alone an entire conference, from playoff consideration in Week 2 is a setup to be proved wrong. That's why the Big Ten could theoretically survive another disastrous start to the 2015 season. 

Or, more specifically, why individual teams can survive. 

Here's a look at the games on schedule through the first few weeks of the season:

Week 1	Week 2	Week 3
Michigan at Utah	Oregon State at Michigan	Illinois at North Carolina
TCU at Minnesota	Western Illinois at Illinois	South Florida at Maryland
Michigan State at Western Michigan	Bowling Green at Maryland	UNLV at Michigan
Kent State at Illinois	Buffalo at Penn State	Air Force at Michigan State
Stanford at Northwestern	Indiana State at Purdue	Kent State at Minnesota
Illinois State at Iowa	Miami (OH) at Wisconsin	Northwestern at Duke
Richmond at Maryland	Hawaii at Ohio State	Nebraska at Miami (FL)
Norfolk State at Rutgers	Washington State at Rutgers	Northern Illinois at Ohio State
Penn State at Temple	Minnesota at Colorado State	Virginia Tech at Purdue
BYU at Nebraska	Eastern Illinois at Northwestern	Troy at Wisconsin
Southern Illinois at Indiana	Iowa at Iowa State	Western Kentucky at Indiana
Wisconsin vs. Alabama	Oregon at Michigan State	Rutgers at Penn State
Purdue at Marshall	South Alabama at Nebraska	Pitt at Iowa
Ohio State at Virginia Tech	Florida International at Indiana

Other than some cupcakes against Football Championship Subdivision opponents, there are plenty of coin-flip games on the slate. It's not an official prediction, but it wouldn't be unforeseen if the Big Ten went under .500 against Power Five opponents right out of the gate. 

If that does end up happening, the question becomes: Have we learned our lesson, or will the Big Ten be swiftly thrown back under the bus (which may, or may not, have Jim Harbaugh khakis painted on them)? 

The answer, as usual, is in the details. 

First of all, it's universally agreed upon that Ohio State and Michigan State are the Big Ten's best playoff hopefuls. If Northwestern loses to Stanford, it's not an indictment on the Big Ten's playoff chances. If Maryland beats South Florida, it's not a boost to the Big Ten's hopes. Not everything means something on a big-picture scale. 

But let's say Ohio State does drop its second straight game to Virginia Tech in stunning fashion. Let's presume Michigan State can't get revenge on Oregon at home. What then?

Those are wasted opportunities to land quality nonconference victories, to be sure, but recent history shows those aren't a season-defining moments. At the time of the first College Football Playoff rankings, Michigan State remained a top-10 team while Ohio State was ranked at No. 16. Two weeks later, the Buckeyes were considered a top-10 team. By the end of the year, both teams were ranked in the CFP top 10. 

But what was true last year might not be true this year, right? To an extent, yes; there is no magic formula for playoff selection. But that's why the whole season needs to play out. No one knows how things are going to go.

There's no denying Ohio State's strength of schedule on paper leaves much to be desired. If the Big Ten gets off to a bad start against Power Five opponents, it won't help the matter. However, as David Hale of ESPN.com tweeted earlier this month, it's possible for a great team (Ohio State, Florida State) to make a championship run even if the conference it represents falls short. In that sense, strength of schedule hasn't been the be-all, end-all factor some thought it would be.

"Conference champions are going to get the first tiebreaker consideration and strength of schedule is going to get the second," Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany told Ralph Russo of the Associated Press last month.

Who knows, the Big Ten could come out of the gate swinging and land several marquee nonconference wins in the first few weeks—and yet no one from the conference could make the playoff. Conversely, the opposite could be true. It was last year.

Count out the Big Ten (or any other conference) at your own risk. It's already shown to be an unwise move. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football.