Predicting the Outcome of 2015's Tightest MLB Playoff Battles
A casual baseball fan I know said the other day that this is a good season, because there are so many good teams.
Meanwhile, a favorite topic among those who follow the game a lot closer is that there just aren't many great teams.
Either way, we should be headed for some real fun over the next six-and-a-half weeks. Even with the two Central Division races basically decided, that still leaves four division crowns and four wild-card spots up for grabs. It leaves the possibility of surprise teams getting in and of big-money powerhouses getting left out.
No one knows what will happen, but we at Bleacher Report are going to tell you anyway, if only so you can write back later (or sooner) and tell us how wrong we were.
So here you go, race by race, with our best guess at what happens next.
Missouri Central: The Kansas City Royals and St. Louis Cardinals Are In
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A year ago, the Kansas City Royals were the surprise team. Now, the growing consensus is that they're baseball's best team.
That consensus doesn't hold everywhere, and you'll get the biggest argument about 240 miles east of Kauffman Stadium, where St. Louis Cardinals fans loudly ask, "Have you forgotten about the team with baseball's best record?"
No, we haven't, but for the purposes of these predictions, we're going to basically ignore the entire state of Missouri. The idea here is to predict baseball's tightest playoff battles, and neither the American League Central nor the National League Central qualifies.
The Royals—and the Cardinals—are too good for this story.
Check back with us when the playoffs begin.
AL West: The Houston Astros Outlast the Los Angeles Angels
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No matter what, this is going to go down as a successful season in Houston. The Astros are finally on the rise, whether or not they win the West this year.
But it says here that they are going to win, in part because they're better than we gave them credit for (before the season, certainly, but even at midseason), and in part because the Los Angeles Angels are more of a mess than we realized (even with Jerry Dipoto gone).
The Astros' deadline deals haven't all worked. Carlos Gomez had a .516 OPS in his first 17 games since the trade, and the Astros have lost Scott Kazmir's last three starts.
The Astros began play Wednesday with a sub-.500 record since July 1. But the Angels haven't taken advantage of that yet, and they've given little sign that they can take advantage of it. The Rangers have been better than either of them since the All-Star break, but they don't look good enough to pass them both.
AL East: On the Toronto Blue Jays' Bandwagon
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This might be the best race of all, especially with (at least) seven more games left between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees. The Jays won four of the six meetings in August, but all that got them was a half-game deficit coming out of last weekend's series at the Rogers Centre.
The Yankees went home and punched on the Minnesota Twins, as they often do. The Blue Jays went to Philadelphia and won a game by hitting three home runs and scoring eight runs, as they often do.
The Blue Jays have a slightly tougher schedule the rest of the way, but both teams figure to win a lot of games. Neither one is yet guaranteed a playoff spot, but FanGraphs had both teams' chances above 90 percent. FanGraphs also gave the Yankees a slightly better chance at winning the division, but we're going the other way because we love the moves Toronto made and the positive spirit that came with those moves.
But we're also going to make it fun and say that it's all going to come down to a one-game playoff for the AL East title—with David Price pitching it and winning it for the Blue Jays.
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NL West: The $300 Million Los Angeles Dodgers Sneak In
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It's a better story if the Los Angeles Dodgers don't make it, and when it comes to predictions, we're usually all about the better stories. But even with their glaring weaknesses and even with their 3-9 head-to-head record against the San Francisco Giants (with seven games to play), the Dodgers are the unenthusiastic pick to win the West.
It still makes little sense that Chase Utley (and not Cole Hamels) is the Philadelphia Phillies player the Dodgers ended up with. It still makes little sense that Mat Latos (and not Hamels or David Price) was the big starting pitcher the Dodgers added (before demoting him to the bullpen this week).
But the Giants' rotation behind Madison Bumgarner doesn't inspire enough confidence either, and with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke pitching the way they have, the Dodgers are highly unlikely to fall apart down the stretch.
"The Giants just don't have it this year," scout after scout told me this week. For better or worse, I listened, even though I really didn't want to.
NL East: The New York Mets Hold Off the "Where's My Ring?" Washington Nationals
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On this one, I did go with the better story. But I believe it.
The New York Mets could still be sunk by their shaky bullpen or by those nasty innings limits that will likely cost Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard a couple of starts each down the stretch. And the Washington Nationals could well take off once they finally get Denard Span back in the lineup.
But when you ask baseball people about the Nationals, the most common thing you hear is, "There's something wrong there." It's not just injuries or a maligned manager that have this talented team struggling to get above .500 (although both of those have been factors).
The Nationals' poor play gave the Mets a chance, but now the Mets have the look of a true contender. The deadline deals have given them an actual major league lineup, but the guys who were already here (Jacob deGrom, Curtis Granderson, etc.) have been just as important.
The Nationals began play Wednesday 8.5 games out in the wild-card race, so it's going to be tough for them to even make the playoffs without winning the division.
When Bryce Harper began spring training by asking, "Where's my ring?" there's no way he could have imagined asking, "What am I going to do in October?" Now, we all can imagine it. In fact, we're predicting it.
AL Wild Card: The One-Game Play-In Could Easily Take Two or Three Days
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As of Wednesday morning, six teams were bunched within 4.5 games for the second American League wild-card spot (with the Los Angeles Angels barely in front). And the Toronto Blue Jays, who for the moment hold the first wild-card spot, were only three games in front of the Angels.
If you've been following along, you know that we're picking the Blue Jays to win the AL East, in a one-game playoff against the New York Yankees. If the race is going to be that close, they'll probably both win enough games to make the playoffs, so we'll go ahead and hand the Yankees the first wild card. They can get back to the postseason for the first time in three years, but they're going to have to really earn it.
But the other teams will have it even tougher. In fact, the race for the second wild card is going to be so close that there's going to be another one-game playoff, between the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers (who met in the Wild Card Game in 2012).
That leaves the Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays on the outside looking in, and we're not entirely comfortable with that. But already out on a limb predicting two tiebreaker games, we just couldn't bring ourselves to say there'll be a three-way tie.
It could happen, though. We hope it happens.
We're just not comfortable saying it will.
NL Wild Card: It's All About the Central (and the Chicago Cubs)
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It's no fun to predict that the teams in front now are going to stay in front, but in the NL wild-card race, there's just no way around it.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are so good that they have the second-best record in the whole league (and even have an outside shot at catching the St. Louis Cardinals for the National League Central crown). And it's time to start believing in the Chicago Cubs.
"The Cubs are legit," said one scout who just saw them. "They have talent, and Joe Maddon has given them a real swagger."
The Cubs have a difficult schedule with 19 of their remaining 34 games against the Cardinals, Pirates, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals. But they also began play Wednesday with a three-game edge over the Giants, the only team with a real shot at catching them for the final wild-card spot.
The guess here is that the Giants do their usual even-year thing and miss the playoffs entirely, and that means a Cubs-Pirates NL Wild Card Game, with the winner going on to play the Cardinals in the division series.
Yes, it really is all about the Central.
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