Texas Football: 2015 Game-by-Game Schedule Predictions for the Longhorns
Texas is far too young to be a legitimate candidate in the Big 12 this season.
The Longhorns could start as many as eight redshirt or true freshmen to begin the season. And whatever the number is in the season opener, it's sure to go up as the year wears on.
But there should be no doubt that Charlie Strong's team is fighting to get better. The competitive freshman class has brought the intensity, and the entire team is responding to the extra push.
They won't be world-beaters, but reports indicate that the Horns can expect improvement from their quarterback, offensive line and running game in the up-tempo offense that's being installed. After finishing in the bottom-half of the Big 12 in every relevant offensive category, those developments will pay major dividends.
And with a defense coached by Strong on its side, there's no reason this team can't go 7-5 in 2015.
Sept. 5 at Notre Dame
1 of 12
Depending on a bunch of freshmen for production will make things tough for Texas all season. That reality will be obvious when the Horns travel to South Bend for the season opener.
"Strong concedes the obvious that Tyrone Swoopes has put some distance between himself and Jerrod Heard at QB.
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It's not looking like Jerrod Heard will be making his first career start in Illinois, but plenty of other young Longhorns will be. As many as seven redshirt and/or true freshmen could man first-team roles, including the left tackle and middle linebacker spots, to begin the year.
That's a tough task, especially against a Notre Dame team that's returning 19 starters in 2015. The Irish will field one of the better offensive lines in the country led by Ronnie Stanley, and figure to set the pace in this one.
The Horns will fight, but Malik Zaire's mobility will end up being the difference.
Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Texas 23
Sept. 12 vs. Rice
2 of 12
This is Texas at home versus Rice. No matter how young the Longhorns are, this is a game they're virtually guaranteed to win.
Texas has beaten the Owls by double-digits in 11 of their last 12 meetings. This game will make it 12 out of 13.
Prediction: Texas 34, Rice 12
Sept. 19 vs. California
3 of 12
If Texas new offense is capable of pouring on the points, then its final non-conference game against Cal would be the time to do it.
Led by probable first-round pick Jared Goff, the Bears finished second in the Pac-12 behind Oregon in points scored last season. They could pour it on with the best of them, scoring over 30 points in 10 of 12 contests, with Goff averaging well over 300 passing yards per outing.
The trouble for Sonny Dykes' team was his defense. The Bears finished dead-last in the conference in both yards and points allowed, giving up over 40 points five times.
Returning eight starters is nice, but this group was historically awful in 2014 (as noted by SB Nation's Bill Connelly), generating an embarrassingly low amount of pressure (16 sacks in 12 games). One offseason isn't going to fix that.
Heading into conference play, this is a dream scenario for Texas and its new offense, especially if Tyrone Swoopes is still the quarterback. He'll need this confidence-booster heading into Big 12 play.
Prediction: Texas 35, Cal 27
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Sept. 26 vs. Oklahoma State
4 of 12
Barring a sophomore slump from Mason Rudolph, Texas is going to have a tough time with Oklahoma State, a dark horse in the Big 12.
It'll take some prove-it performances, but this has the look of one of Mike Gundy's better teams. The 11th-year head coach gets 16 starters back from last year's squad, and 2014 was the first time since 2008 that he hasn't managed at least nine wins. History tells us his Pokes will bounce back.
However, this is also a team that lost five-straight by at least three touchdowns at one point last season. While it should improve almost across the board, there are flaws—especially in the run game—that have to be fixed.
For Texas, this one will depend on how much the offensive line has improved from last season. If Joe Wickline's group can get push up front and protect the quarterback from Emmanuel Ogbah and Co., this will be a great game.
Until Wickline's unit has a prove-it performance itself, the edge goes to the team that seems to have its quarterback of the future.
Prediction: Oklahoma St. 27, Texas 21
Oct. 3 at TCU
5 of 12
The Horned Frogs have to replace five all-conference defenders in 2015, but that shouldn't stop them from handling Texas at home.
TCU has already achieved what Texas is gunning for in 2015—a complete offensive reboot. In just its first year in a spread system, this team put up over 45 points per game and turned Trevone Boykin into a Heisman contender. With nine returning starters, that well-oiled machine should be even scarier in Year Two.
The Horned Frogs' losses on defense might cost them against Baylor, but not in this one. The Horns are a year away from beating a team like this.
Prediction: TCU 38, Texas 23
Oct. 10 vs. Oklahoma (Dallas)
6 of 12
Like Texas, Oklahoma's success in 2015 depends largely on its ability to get a quarterback to excel in a new offensive system. Even though both teams are in transition, we should get another exciting Red River Showdown.
Both Trevor Knight and Baker Mayfield have turnover issues that have torpedoed any ability to achieve week-to-week consistency. They combine for a 35-to-26 touchdown-to-interception ratio, with leading-candidate Mayfield throwing at least one pick in six of eight career appearances.
"Source tells us Mayfield seemed to have one of his better days of camp in this mornings practice. Team will have 2nd practice today.
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In addition to this uncertainty under center, the Sooners also have to replace three starters from last year's tremendous offensive line. Daryl Williams, Tyrus Thompson and Adam Shead were All-Big 12 performers last season, and they're all gone.
So while Stoops has overhauled his offensive staff and handed Lincoln Riley the keys, there's no guarantee that this team can pull a TCU.
That diminished offensive line gives Texas the opportunity to get revenge for last year's 31-26 loss. Even without Malcom Brown, the Horns have great depth up front and should be able to force some mistakes from whichever quarterback is running Oklahoma's show.
"Strong says there are 12-13 defensive linemen he's comfortable playing in a game.
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With some decent quarterback play, Strong will get his first rivalry win as Texas' coach.
Prediction: Texas 30, Oklahoma 27
Oct. 24 vs. Kansas State
7 of 12
Don't write it in ink, but this looks like a season in which Texas can top Kansas State.
As SB Nation's Connelly points out, Bill Snyder will have to go full Gandalf this season. For the first time since the late '90s, he's failed to bring in a substantial JUCO haul to replenish the ranks. That doesn't spell success in a year in which he's down his quarterback and three best skill players.
Still, Snyder will field a group of players that will do their job without making crucial mistakes. And by the time the Wildcats head down to Austin, their head coach will have figured out how to get the best from his seemingly depleted squad.
But playing at home with superior talent, you have to like Texas' ability to grind this one out.
Prediction: Texas 21, Kansas State 17
Oct. 31 at Iowa State
8 of 12
After two-straight nail-biting victories over the Cyclones, the Longhorns need to take care when they head up to Ames in October. So long as they take it seriously, they'll be fine.
This one comes down to talent for the Longhorns, who learned last season to put Iowa State away early. That shouldn't be a problem considering the Cyclones allowed a ridiculous 6.53 yards per play last season, which was easily last in the Big 12, per CFBStats.com.
Behind a healthy Johnathan Gray and an improved offensive line, the Horns should control this one.
Prediction: Texas 35, Iowa State 21
Nov. 7 vs. Kansas
9 of 12
Michael Cummings is out for the year, and Corey Avery has been dismissed. In short, Kansas will be lucky to beat anyone this season, so it's Texas' job to end this one early.
Longhorn fans who feel that Mack Brown left behind a bare cupboard should be grateful looking at Kansas. Charlie Weis undid just about every speck of good Mark Mangino did for the basketball school's program, and new coach David Beaty is stuck fixing it.
Per LostLettermen, the Jayhawks return six starters from a team that went 3-9 last season. They'll be the worst team in the FBS.
Prediction: Texas 42, Kansas 10
Nov. 14 at West Virginia
10 of 12
If the offense can find an identity, Dana Holgorsen's West Virginia team will break a lot of hearts this season.
It feels weird to say Holgorsen's biggest concern would be his team's ability to score. Since becoming head coach in 2011, his offenses have averaged at least 33 points per game, finishing third in the Big 12 with 39.5 per outing in 2012.
The tables have turned this season, as the Mountaineers return a defense packed with veteran talent but without much firepower on the other side of the ball. What they've gained on defense over the past two years, they've lost at quarterback and receiver.
That puts a ton of pressure on dual-threat quarterback Skyler Howard, the undoubted starter. Fortunately, per The Exponent Telegram's Michael Carvelli, he has responded by becoming the unquestioned leader of this offense.
Given Holgorsen's ability to groom quarterbacks, it's safe to expect an above-average season from Howard. As long as that holds true, the Mountaineers have the defense to keep Texas at bay.
Prediction: West Virginia 27, Texas 17
Nov. 26 vs. Texas Tech
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Texas Tech is absolutely capable of throwing huge numbers up on the scoreboard. But until this team can consistently play complete games, it's going to remain in the lower-tier of the Big 12.
Since beginning his head coaching career 7-0, Kliff Kingsbury has gone 5-13 at his alma mater. And it's easy to see why. No Big 12 team gave up more points or committed more penalties than his Red Raiders in 2014.
Even worse, both of those figures worsened from Kingsbury's first season to his second.
On the other hand, Texas will continue to play disciplined and get after the quarterback under Strong. This might be the young Longhorns' best performance of the year coming off a bye.
Prediction: Texas 34, Texas Tech 17
Dec. 5 at Baylor
12 of 12
Texas fans need to enjoy the win over Texas Tech, because their Longhorns will be the final obstacle between Baylor's freight train and the College Football Playoff.
There are a few ways to break down the disparity between the Longhorns and Bears at this stage. Baylor returns 17 starters, including a quarterback, to Texas' 13. The Bears have seven preseason All-Big 12 members to the Longhorns' one. Also consider that the Baylor offense more than doubled Texas' points output for the 2014 season.
In the past week, even more evidence was released to illustrate the Bears' superiority to their in-state rivals.
Last Tuesday, 247Sports released a brand-new list of the 247 best players in college football. Six members of the Bears cracked the list, all making the top 150. The Longhorns only had Hassan Ridgeway, and he came in at No. 152.
Texas will have its day again, but not this season. The Bears have elite talent on both sides of the ball, and you shouldn't bet on them losing in the regular season.
Prediction: Baylor 48, Texas 26
Unless otherwise noted, all data on returning starters courtesy of PhilSteele.com.
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