College Football's Best Value Bets for 2015 Heisman Trophy
A shrewd bettor looks for value, and this certainly comes into play with the Heisman Trophy race. The trouble is, all the offseason hype lauded on top contenders has caused their odds to shrink significantly.
Front-runner Trevone Boykin of TCU is a 9-2 favorite to win the Heisman, according to Odds Shark, while Ohio State stars Ezekiel Elliott and J.T. Barrett come in at 7-1 and 9-1, respectively.
Those are good odds if you're looking for a sure thing but not if you're trying to land a big score. Instead, it's necessary to go a little further down the list to identify players who might win but don't have the kind of odds that make it seem possible.
Jameis Winston was listed at 33-1 prior to his collegiate debut in 2013, but after putting up a huge performance against Pittsburgh in his first game, his odds jumped to 10-1. Three months later, he'd won the Heisman as an overwhelming 1-8 favorite.
Who are some potential value bets to take a flier on in 2015? We've selected six, chosen based on their odds in comparison to the favorites and factoring in what it would take for each to win the Heisman. They're listed here alphabetically.
Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon
1 of 6
Current odds: 33-1
There have been only three instances in Heisman history where different players from the same school won the award in consecutive years. The last time was in 2004-05, when USC quarterback Matt Leinart and running back Reggie Bush claimed back-to-back trophies. The Heisman Trust ended up vacating Bush's award because of NCAA violations, but the feat still occurred.
In order for Oregon to join that list, the pressure is on Royce Freeman to have a monster year. And with the Ducks' quarterback situation still uncertain, this seems very possible.
Freeman set the Ducks' record for rushing yards by a freshman in 2014, with 1,365 to go along with 18 touchdowns, and that was with quarterback Marcus Mariota and fellow running back Thomas Tyner combining for another 1,343 yards and 20 scores.
Mariota is gone, and Tyner is out for the season after shoulder surgery, which leaves Freeman in position to grab most of their touches and become the focal point of the Oregon offense. Either Jeff Lockie or Vernon Adams is likely to do quite a bit of running, but neither is expected to handle that assignment as well as Mariota did. Thus, it would make more sense for Freeman to carry the load.
Running backs don't get much love from Heisman voters, with Alabama's Mark Ingram (in 2009) the last player from that position to win. But Freeman's current odds are high enough that he's a low-risk pick that would pay off big-time if he's able to capitalize on his opportunity this season.
Jared Goff, QB, California
2 of 6
Current odds: 50-1
There's a history of so-called "out of nowhere" award recipients in recent years, as few people had heard of Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel or Jameis Winston before each exploded in his Heisman-winning season.
Jared Goff isn't necessarily an unknown quantity, as he'll be entering his third season as California's starting quarterback. But with a 6-18 record as a starter, the junior hasn't gotten as much attention as someone with his stats would on a winning team.
Goff has thrown for 7,481 yards and 53 touchdowns, and according to his team bio, he already holds 19 school records. With another 646 yards and 12 scores—numbers he could put up in his first two games of 2015—he'll be the Golden Bears' career leader in those categories.
What Goff does as an individual, however, isn't as important as how Cal performs as a team. It was more than good enough offensively to make a bowl in 2014, but because of an atrocious defense, that didn't happen. Similar problems could get in the way this season.
If Goff can get help from his defense and continue to sling the ball all over the place, his long-shot odds now might lead to a big payoff.
Everett Golson, QB, Florida State
3 of 6
Current odds: 33-1
Midway through last season, when Notre Dame was unbeaten and looking like a strong College Football Playoff contender, Everett Golson's name was among the first uttered when discussing Heisman candidates. He peaked at 11-2, per Odds Shark, right before his turnover problems reached a point where they were directly contributing to the Fighting Irish's second-half slide.
Now Golson is a graduate transfer at Florida State, where he's battling Sean Maguire for the starting job. Though listed third on the depth chart at the beginning of training camp, according to Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel, "Golson's reps with the starters have increased gradually since the start of practice, a sign that he is progressing and learning the offense."
Golson was listed at 20-1 in June but has since dipped to his current odds, which are the same ones Jameis Winston had before the 2013 season started. Quarterback at Florida State is one of the most high-profile positions in the country—one that with a combination of individual and team success should instantly garner serious Heisman consideration for whoever is in that spot.
The odds don't indicate that right now, but with a hot start to 2015, that's apt to change. Grab Golson while the value is still there.
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Cody Kessler, QB, USC
4 of 6
Current odds: 12-1
Since 2002, USC's starting quarterbacks have been frequently included on the final Heisman Trophy results, with Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart winning the award, while Matt Barkley finished sixth in 2011. It's a position that almost automatically comes with Heisman hype, though far less of that has surrounded Cody Kessler in his career.
Kessler had to win a quarterback competition in 2013, then put up strong numbers in a tumultuous season that included the firing of Lane Kiffin and plenty of speculation about the former head coach's replacement. Kessler then had an even better season in 2014, arguably the best year from a statistical standpoint in school history, yet he didn't finish in the top 10 in Heisman balloting.
Now a fifth-year senior, Kessler is among the Heisman favorites heading into this season but still way behind the front-runners. The Trojans are favored to win the Pac-12, according to a preseason media poll, and are a trendy playoff pick. Kessler's Heisman odds figure to improve drastically if both he and his team fare well this year, so 12-1 could be the worst they'll be.
Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio State
5 of 6Current odds: 20-1
Braxton Miller spent much of the first three years of his college career hearing his name mentioned for Heisman consideration, as he finished fifth in the voting in 2012 and ninth in 2013. He was likely to be a contender again last season before a shoulder injury caused him to miss the whole year.
Miller remained on the odds board during the offseason, despite being limited in his throwing as he recovered from surgery. After he announced he was switching from quarterback to wide receiver, though, he has held firm at 20-1 and is rated far higher than any other player at his position.
This might make it seem like he's not a great value, since wide receivers rarely win the Heisman—Michigan's Desmond Howard was the last one, in 1991—and don't often end up high on the final ballot. But Miller is a unique case. With his athleticism, he could very well end up playing multiple positions for Ohio State this season.
Miller will officially slot in is as a hybrid H-back/receiver, but there's been talk of having him available for a potential double-pass play, as coach Urban Meyer mentioned at the team's media day, via 247 Sports' Steve Helwagen (h/t Sporting News). Also, Ari Wasserman of Cleveland.com wrote about watching a practice in which Cardale Jones pitched the bal to Miller on the option.
The best way for non-quarterbacks to win the Heisman is to be able to contribute in as many ways as possible, as Howard did in 1991 as a receiver, rusher and returner and Michigan's Charles Woodson did as a defensive back, returner and receiver in 1997.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
6 of 6
Current odds: 16-1
It's hard to find a college football expert who isn't high on Clemson's Deshaun Watson. He's one of the most exciting players in the country and was absolutely electric when on the field as a true freshman in 2014.
His Heisman odds, though, indicate otherwise. At 16-1, he's currently behind five other quarterbacks, including two—Auburn's Jeremy Johnson and Ohio State's Cardale Jones—who have a combined five starts. Watson started five games last year and would have started several more had he not been injured.
Those ailments are worrisome, particularly the torn ACL that shelved Watson for Clemson's bowl game and all of spring practice. Though fully participating in training camp and in line to start for the Tigers in two weeks, Watson's injury history has oddsmakers currently not buying, and that's exactly why you should be.
If Watson is able to stay healthy, as well as keep his play at the level it was last year, he won't be staying at 16-1 for long.
All odds information courtesy of Odds Shark.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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