Preseason College Football Rankings 2015: Predicting the AP's Top 25
Preseason college football polls don't mean quite as much as they used to. Thanks to the College Football Playoff (which will release its first set of rankings Nov. 3), the Associated Press and USA Today coaches polls have been taken entirely out of the postseason decision-making process, which is probably for the best.
But if you think they're entirely meaningless, just take a gander at Twitter or your favorite team message board on Aug. 23. That's when the Associated Press will release its annual preseason poll, sparking anger, debate and intense interest among college football fans.
Preseason top-25 polls don't have any sort of binding effect on the playoff process, but they do have a way of setting expectations and standards for those ranked both high and low.
Last year, nine teams that started the season in the AP Top 25 ended it out of the rankings, and three schools that began unranked finished in the top 12.
So missing the preseason Top 25 is hardly a death knell, but it's still an interesting talking point. Here, we'll take a crack at projecting the Associated Press Top 25, with an eye on several factors: the coaches poll (a year ago, the two polls had 24 of 25 teams in common), season outlook and key injuries.
25. Mississippi State
1 of 25
Mississippi State had an incredible 2014 season. The Bulldogs broke free from SEC West mediocrity for a 10-win season, spending five weeks as the nation's No. 1 team and earning an Orange Bowl bid. However, this team shouldn't be expected to reach those lofty heights. Head coach Dan Mullen returns only seven starters from that group, although one is senior quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Dak Prescott.
Coaches are still giving the Bulldogs a healthy amount of respect, however. The USA Today Football Coaches Poll slotted them No. 26, just behind SEC rival Tennessee, which finished 2014 strong with its first bowl trip since 2010 and a 7-6 record.
The Volunteers just lost starting senior left guard Marcus Jackson to a season-ending injury, which will have an impact given their suspect offensive line depth. If writers take notice, they'll nudge the Bulldogs into the Top 25.
24. Boise State
2 of 25
Bryan Harsin's first season as Boise State head coach was one to remember. The Broncos shook off a 3-2 start to bounce back into national prominence, win the Mountain West title, make the College Football Playoff's New Year's games as the Group of Five qualifier and beat Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl for a 12-2 overall record.
Boise State returns 17 starters from that team, although that doesn't include quarterback Grant Hedrick or tailback Jay Ajayi, who accounted for 88.3 percent of the Broncos' yards and 92.4 percent of the team's touchdowns. That isn't easy to replace, although sophomore Ryan Finley is the favorite to fill Hedrick's shoes, and a backfield by committee will fill in for Ajayi.
Boise opens with Washington (and former head coach Chris Petersen) at home and then has trips to BYU and Virginia in September. The Broncos also must travel to Colorado State and Utah State. But given their success last year and the amount of talent returning, there's no reason to sleep on the Broncos this fall.
23. Arizona
3 of 25
Arizona and head coach Rich Rodriguez enjoyed a breakthrough season in 2014. In RichRod's third season, the Wildcats made a move into the Pac-12 hierarchy behind freshman quarterback Anu Solomon, tailback Nick Wilson and do-everything linebacker Scooby Wright III, who won every major national defensive award he was eligible for with a 163-tackle season.
Arizona finished 10-4, won the Pac-12 South and made the Fiesta Bowl. There are questions for an offensive line that returns only two starters, and the Wildcats must also replace three starters in their secondary. But if the offense keeps humming with Solomon at the helm, Arizona will outscore opponents (it averaged 34.5 points per game in 2014) and win more than its share of games in the Pac-12.
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22. Missouri
4 of 25
If we've learned anything over the past two years, it's that we shouldn't take Missouri football lightly. Coming off a 5-7 record in their first SEC season, the Tigers surprised many by rolling to the SEC East title in 2013. Relegated to the fringes of the preseason Top 25 in 2014, head coach Gary Pinkel's group again exceeded expectations, winning another division title, 11 games and winding up with a top-15 finish.
It wouldn't be surprising if voters weren't exactly bullish on Mizzou again in 2015. The Tigers return 12 starters, but none at receiver. In fact, their returnees have exactly 10 career catches combined. Junior quarterback Maty Mauk must also become more consistent.
Defensively, the Tigers have a green line but will welcome one of the nation's top overall recruits in tackle Terry Beckner Jr. However, the linebacker and secondary groups are strong, and Missouri has a manageable SEC schedule, despite a trip to Georgia, with SEC West crossover games against Arkansas and Mississippi State. It wouldn't be a surprise if Missouri excelled again.
21. Stanford
5 of 25
Last fall, Stanford took something of a step back. Following back-to-back Pac-12 championships, the Cardinal struggled offensively and never really challenged for a third consecutive title, finishing 8-5 with a Foster Farms Bowl win over Maryland.
It should be noted that Stanford finished strong with three consecutive wins, all by at least three touchdowns. Twelve starters return (eight on offense) led by steady senior quarterback Kevin Hogan. Expect the offense to be better this fall, with sophomore tailback Christian McCaffrey taking a bigger role in the running game.
There are concerns about a defense that returns just four starters, and a schedule that opens with Northwestern, Central Florida and Southern California isn't easy. But Stanford should prove that 2014 was an aberration with a bounce-back season.
20. Arkansas
6 of 25
Few would have blamed Arkansas fans if they had their doubts about head coach Bret Bielema last fall. A Nov. 1 loss to Mississippi State dropped Bielema to 0-13 in SEC play at Arkansas, and the Razorbacks' postseason hopes were on life support. But Arkansas rebounded to win two of its last three games, shutting out LSU and Ole Miss, to make the Texas Bowl. There, it belted former Southwest Conference rival Texas to finish 7-6 and create serious enthusiasm for 2015.
The Razorbacks return 14 starters, led by 2014's only dual 1,000-yard rushers in Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams. They also return four of five offensive line starters and a solid quarterback in Brandon Allen, who threw for 2,285 yards and 20 touchdowns a year ago.
Arkansas returns five starters from a defense that allowed 19.2 points per game a year ago, so there's work to be done there. Trips to Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU won't be easy, but Bielema's bunch has room for improvement in his third season in Fayetteville.
19. Oklahoma
7 of 25
2014 was a year to forget for Oklahoma. The Sooners were ranked in the preseason top five and a sexy pick for the College Football Playoff, but little went right in an 8-5 season that ended with a thud in a 40-6 Russell Athletic Bowl loss to Clemson. Head coach Bob Stoops cleaned house on his offensive staff, bringing in Air Raid guru Lincoln Riley to rejuvenate the offense.
Riley must pick between Trevor Knight and Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield as his quarterback, and the winner will run an offense that also includes standout tailback Samaje Perine, senior receiver Sterling Shepard and tailback Joe Mixon, who is returning from a one-year suspension following an assault on a female OU student. The Sooners have talent, but is Riley the answer to their woes? We'll see.
18. Wisconsin
8 of 25
Wisconsin is breaking in a new head coach this fall, but don't expect much change from the Badgers. That's because the guy replacing Gary Andersen (who bolted for Oregon State following just two seasons in Madison) is Paul Chryst, a former Wisconsin player who was an assistant under both Barry Alvarez and Bret Bielema. In other words, he knows exactly what makes Wisconsin's program tick.
The Badgers return 12 starters this fall but must replace Heisman Trophy runner-up Melvin Gordon, who rushed for 2,587 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2014. His understudy, junior Corey Clement, should fit nicely into the role. The big question is this: Will senior quarterback Joel Stave be a capable leader for the offense? If so, the Badgers will be a force to be reckoned with in the Big Ten once again.
17. Georgia Tech
9 of 25
Entering 2014, head coach Paul Johnson's footing in Atlanta was a bit shaky. Following an ACC title in 2009, Georgia Tech was 28-25 over the next four years, and the Yellow Jackets were breaking in a new quarterback in Justin Thomas. By January, Georgia Tech had silenced any doubters. The Yellow Jackets went 11-3 with an ACC Coastal Division title and an Orange Bowl win over Mississippi State, showing Johnson's flexbone offense can be successful.
Now the challenge is repeating that success with a new crew. Tech's top two receivers and four of its top five rushers are gone, with Thomas, the team's leading rusher in 2014, the only backfield returnee of note. Johnson has consistently proved that his offense is more than the sum of its parts, but this season will test that again.
So will a schedule that includes trips to Notre Dame and Clemson before mid-October and a visit from three-time defending ACC champion Florida State. But if the offense can chew up clock as usual, the Yellow Jackets will be, at the very least, a strong contender for another ACC Costal Division title.
16. Ole Miss
10 of 25
Last fall was pretty good by Ole Miss standards. Nine wins, a victory over then-No. 1 Alabama, a win over archrival Mississippi State and a trip to the Peach Bowl. But that last accomplishment is one Rebels fans would rather wipe from their memory banks forever since it resulted in a no-show 42-3 loss to TCU.
The good news? Head coach Hugh Freeze brings back 16 starters, led by star left tackle Laremy Tunsil and junior defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche, one of college football's most talented defensive linemen. The Rebels need to find a quarterback to replace the up-and-down Bo Wallace, with junior college transfer and former Clemson signal-caller Chad Kelly the favorite.
Kelly is a dual threat, but there are serious questions about his mental makeup following his dismissal from the Tigers after an on-field meltdown during their 2014 spring game and his arrest by Buffalo police after an altercation in a bar over the winter. But Phil Stukenborg of the Commercial Appeal wrote Kelly is embracing the scrutiny.
The Rebels remain a very talented group. Games at Alabama, Auburn and Mississippi State won't be easy, but Texas A&M and LSU come to Oxford. If Freeze can find a capable quarterback, this should be a dangerous group.
15. Arizona State
11 of 25
Head coach Todd Graham is building something special in Tempe. Following consecutive 10-win seasons, Arizona State looks like a legit Pac-12 contender as Graham enters his fourth season at the helm of the Sun Devils. Even the losses of quarterback Taylor Kelly and talented wideout Jaelen Strong shouldn't seriously impact an offense that averaged 36.9 points per game in 2014, given backup Mike Bercovici's success as Kelly's understudy and multitalented tailback D.J. Foster's move to the slot to replace Strong.
There are concerns for a defense that allowed 27.9 points per game a year ago. The Sun Devils return seven starters but lost a potential impact player when they dismissed junior-college transfer Davon Durant after he was arrested on allegations of domestic violence and aggravated assault.
A September that begins with a neutral-site game against Texas A&M in Houston and ends with a home visit from Southern California is intriguing. So are visits from Oregon and Arizona. If this defense can show improvement, ASU could be a dark-horse College Football Playoff contender.
14. UCLA
12 of 25
Los Angeles is home to two major college football programs, but recently, Southern California has been receiving far more buzz (for better or worse) than crosstown rival UCLA. Head coach Jim Mora Jr. would love that to change, and he's doing his best—on the field—to make sure that happens. The Bruins have recorded consecutive 10-win seasons under Mora and are legit College Football Playoff contenders entering 2015.
UCLA returns 17 starters, led by standout tailback Paul Perkins and versatile linebacker/tailback Myles Jack. The biggest question is at quarterback, where dual threat Brett Hundley left for the NFL following his junior season. Highly regarded freshman Josh Rosen was the favorite to win the job exiting spring practice, and if he adjusts quickly, the Bruins will be a force nationally given their talent across the board.
13. Clemson
13 of 25
It has been a long wait for Clemson fans, who reveled in the Tigers' only national championship in 1981. But under head coach Dabo Swinney's watch, Clemson is showing signs of regaining its elite status. Swinney has led the Tigers to four consecutive seasons of at least 10 wins, and with talented quarterback Deshaun Watson at the helm, a potent offense shouldn't miss a beat even with offensive mastermind Chad Morris off to SMU.
There are questions on defense, where only two starters return. Defensive end Shaq Lawson hopes to step right into NFL first-round pick Vic Beasley's sack-happy shoes, and cornerback Mackensie Alexander is one of the nation's top players whom you haven't heard about. However, the loss of linebacker/safety Korrin Wiggins to a torn ACL could tax a unit already lacking experience; he was expected to play a major role in one form or another.
Clemson gets Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Florida State at home, which is a major plus. The defense won't be as good as last season's unit, which led the nation in total defense, but if it can somewhat approximate that performance, the Tigers will challenge for a College Football Playoff bid.
12. LSU
14 of 25
2014 was a real downer in Baton Rouge. There are places where 8-5 is an acceptable record, but given Les Miles' track record as head coach, LSU isn't one of them. Improvement will be expected in 2015, and Miles has the roster to do it given 13 returning starters. One of them is sophomore tailback Leonard Fournette, who might be college football's most talented runner. He should be even better following a debut season in which he rushed for 1,034 yards.
The biggest question remains at quarterback, where the inconsistent Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris are still battling for the starting role. If Miles can get above-average play from either guy, the Tigers will be a force to be reckoned with in the SEC West. LSU gets Auburn, Florida and Texas A&M at home, but traveling to Alabama and Ole Miss won't be easy.
11. Notre Dame
15 of 25
For head coach Brian Kelly and Notre Dame, 2014 could best be described as streaky. The Fighting Irish began the season 6-0 and were a disputed pass-interference call away from defeating Florida State in Tallahassee for a 7-0 start. But after that fateful night in Doak Campbell Stadium, they finished the regular season 1-4, although beating LSU in the Music City Bowl was a nice way to head into the offseason.
Notre Dame returns 16 starters and should be improved, particularly on defense. The Irish bring back 10 starters on that side of the ball and also get senior corner KeiVarae Russell back from academic suspension.
Malik Zaire is the man at quarterback after turnover-prone Everett Golson transferred to Florida State following spring practice. How quickly Zaire adjusts to being an offensive leader could determine the season's trajectory. The schedule isn't easy, with Texas, Georgia Tech, Clemson and Southern California on the docket. But if Zaire can run the offense capably, this could be a College Football Playoff team.
10. Southern California
16 of 25
For head coach Steve Sarkisian and Southern California, there's a light at the end of the tunnel. And it isn't a train. The Trojans just haven't been the same since former head coach Pete Carroll bolted for the NFL and NCAA probation stripped 30 scholarships over three years. Those kinds of sanctions take time to recover from, and USC is only now doing so.
The Trojans were 9-4 in Sarkisian's first season as head coach, and they return 14 starters, led by senior quarterback Cody Kessler (who threw 39 touchdowns against five interceptions last fall). The defense is led by do-everything cornerback Adoree' Jackson and third-team All-American linebacker Su'a Cravens, and Sarkisian added a talented recruiting class.
Trips to Arizona State, Notre Dame and Oregon will test USC, but this is a team that can compete with the Pac-12's elite and challenge for the College Football Playoff, living up to Trojans fans' lofty standards.
9. Georgia
17 of 25
There might not be a fanbase hungrier for a national title than Georgia's. The Bulldogs haven't won it all since 1980, and while Mark Richt has 136 wins and two SEC titles in 14 seasons as head coach, he hasn't taken the Dawgs to the promised land. 2014 was particularly frustrating: 10 wins but no SEC East title and losses to Florida, Georgia Tech and South Carolina.
As Georgia prepares for 2015, there's reason for optimism. Sophomore tailback Nick Chubb is a legit Heisman Trophy candidate after rushing for 1,547 yards a year ago, and the defense showed major improvement in Jeremy Pruitt's first year as coordinator, allowing 20.7 points per game. And the defensive line should be better this fall with the addition of tackle Trent Thompson, the nation's top overall recruit, per 247Sports.
The Bulldogs should be 4-0 when Alabama visits Oct. 3, and they also get Missouri at home, but they must travel to Auburn and Georgia Tech. The SEC slate is always a meat grinder, but this looks like a College Football Playoff contender at the very least.
8. Florida State
18 of 25
Following three consecutive ACC championships, a national title and a College Football Playoff appearance, Florida State has reestablished itself as a national power. The Seminoles are the kind of program that reloads rather than rebuilds. And they'll certainly be reloading in 2015.
Florida State returns just 10 starters (three on offense) following major graduation and NFL draft losses that claimed Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston, leading receivers Rashad Greene and Nick O'Leary and defensive line stalwarts Eddie Goldman and Mario Edwards Jr. In addition, star tailback Dalvin Cook's status is uncertain following a battery charge. Cook's trial is set for Aug. 24, per Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel.
However, the roster remains plenty talented, with a group of good receivers ready to make either Sean Maguire or Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson look better. The Seminoles could experience some growing pains with trips to Georgia Tech and Clemson in a three-week span, but they won't slip much, if at all.
7. Michigan State
19 of 25
With a 24-3 record, a Big Ten title and Cotton and Rose Bowl wins over the last two seasons, there's little doubt that head coach Mark Dantonio is building something special in East Lansing. The only three teams to defeat Michigan State in the last two seasons? Notre Dame, Oregon and Ohio State. Not too shabby.
The Spartans return 12 starters, led by senior quarterback Connor Cook, one of the nation's top signal-callers. There are questions, however, about who'll replace leading rusher Jeremy Langford and leading receiver Tony Lippett, and senior linebacker Ed Davis' season-ending knee injury is a major blow to the defense.
Michigan State gets a visit from Oregon on Sept. 12, and its Nov. 21 trip to Ohio State should decide the Big Ten East (and Big Ten) title. The Spartans have the potential to make the College Football Playoff, but with new faces at key skill positions, they face a big hurdle in the Buckeyes.
6. Auburn
20 of 25
Auburn took a step back last fall. Following an unexpected run to the BCS national title game the year prior, the Tigers struggled on defense, allowing 26.7 points per game and yielding at least 31 points to each of their last seven FBS opponents. Exit defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson and enter former Florida head coach Will Muschamp, who's taking his third turn as an AU assistant. Auburn had serious pass-rush issues, but the return of defensive end Carl Lawson from a torn ACL and the signing of talented edge-rusher Byron Cowart should help.
Dual-threat quarterback Nick Marshall is gone, but backup Jeremy Johnson, who has drawn comparisons to Heisman Trophy winner and former Auburn star Cam Newton, is more than ready to lead the offense in dynamic fashion. Replacing three offensive line starters is a concern, as is the status of talented wideout D'haquille Williams, who has served a pair of suspensions in the past year for undisclosed reasons.
Auburn must travel to LSU and Texas A&M but will host Georgia and Alabama, which is a major plus. If the Tigers get improved play from the defense and survive the SEC, they are a College Football Playoff contender.
5. Oregon
21 of 25
Chip Kelly. Mark Helfrich. It doesn't matter. Oregon is here to stay, whether you like the Ducks' numerous flashy uniform combinations or not. Oregon made an impressive run to the national title game last season behind Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota, averaging 45.4 points per game. And halfway through August, the biggest question revolves around Mariota's replacement under center.
Junior Jeff Lockie emerged as the favorite following spring practice, but he'll be challenged by Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams, who'll join Oregon this week after passing a math test and graduating from EWU, per Tyson Alger of the Oregonian.
Adams was an FCS All-American and is a dynamic talent, but can he pick up the offense quickly enough to become the man in charge? If so, he'll inherit a stacked unit led by sophomore tailback Royce Freeman. A trip to Michigan State looms in Week 2, but first there's the opener against—you guessed it—Eastern Washington.
Regardless of the starter, the Ducks are Pac-12 favorites and should be serious College Football Playoff contenders.
4. Baylor
22 of 25
One of college football's most remarkable turnarounds has taken place in Waco, Texas. Head coach Art Briles transformed a downtrodden Baylor program into a consistent winner and national force, and the Bears are set to play in sparkling new McLane Stadium. Last fall, only a 41-27 loss at West Virginia separated Baylor from the College Football Playoff, and despite the departure of prolific quarterback Bryce Petty, the Bears are on pace to find lofty heights again in 2015.
An offense that averaged 48.2 points per game in 2014 (best in the nation) returns eight starters, including its entire offensive line, a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in KD Cannon and Corey Coleman and 1,252-yard rusher Shock Linwood. New quarterback Seth Russell proved more than capable as Petty's backup last fall.
Baylor gets Oklahoma and Texas at home but must travel to Kansas State, Oklahoma State and TCU. The road to a College Football Playoff won't be easy, but it's one that Baylor can navigate cleanly with a little luck.
3. Alabama
23 of 25
In eight seasons at Alabama, head coach Nick Saban has set very high standards. Saban is demanding, and nothing less than the best satisfies him. The same can be said for Crimson Tide fans, especially with three titles (and counting) in the Saban era. That means seasons like 2014 aren't good enough. The Tide went 12-2 and won the SEC but suffered a 42-35 Sugar Bowl defeat to Ohio State.
Alabama will welcome back just nine starters but is expected to reload in typical fashion. One of the biggest questions is at quarterback, where senior Jake Coker is trying to hold off a quartet of young players including Blake Barnett. Blake Sims was a big success as a one-and-done quarterback, and if Coker does the same with a talented roster, another College Football Playoff berth could be in the offing.
2. TCU
24 of 25
The biggest surprise of 2014? Without question, it was TCU. The Horned Frogs went from 4-8 to 12-1 and just out of the College Football Playoff, with the only blemish a 61-58 loss at Baylor. The Frogs averaged 46.5 points per game, second nationally behind the Bears. This fall, head coach Gary Patterson and Co. hope to take the next step, especially with 15 starters returning, including 10 on offense.
The presence of senior quarterback Trevone Boykin alone is reason for optimism. Boykin threw for 3,901 yards and 33 touchdowns and is a first-tier Heisman Trophy candidate. There are questions on defense, where two linebackers, including leading tackler Paul Dawson, must be replaced, but the offense can score with anyone.
TCU hosts Baylor in its season finale, but for the game to be truly meaningful, the Frogs must survive trips to Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. That's a tough road to hoe, but TCU is a clear contender as one of the nation's truly elite teams.
1. Ohio State
25 of 25
The most amazing part about Ohio State's 2014 national title run? It was a year early. The consensus around Columbus was that 2015 would be the year head coach Urban Meyer returned the Buckeyes to national glory, but Ohio State overcame an early loss to Virginia Tech and injuries to two quarterbacks to finish with a 14-1 record and the program's first national crown since 2002.
Now, with 14 starters back and incredible talent across the board (defensive end Joey Bosa, tailback Ezekiel Elliott and quarterbacks J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones, just to name a few), the Buckeyes are poised for a repeat. Meyer told Jon Solomon of CBS Sports that defending the title won't be miserable, like it was at Florida in 2009:
"We went undefeated in the Southeastern Conference, and it was a miserable year, according to people, including myself. That's my fault. So if we win every game this year, I can assure you it's not going to be miserable. We won the Sugar Bowl [in the 2009 season] by three or four touchdowns, and what a bad year. We're not going to do that. We're not going to play that game.
"
How talented are the Buckeyes? The two-time Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, Braxton Miller, is moving to receiver for his senior season. The opener at Virginia Tech will be interesting without Bosa and H-back Jalin Marshall, who are among four players suspended for violating team rules, but the Buckeyes are deep enough to survive.
That opener and a Nov. 21 visit from Michigan State are the most challenging games on the schedule, so a 13-0 record and second berth in the College Football Playoff are well within the realm of possibility. Ohio State is the clear choice for No. 1 right now.
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