Non-Power Five Teams That Could Crash the College Football Playoff

It seems no matter what type of championship format college football decides to use, schools from outside the Power Five conferences get the short end of the stick. 

During the BCS era, schools like Boise State and TCU were always on the outside looking in despite proving themselves against top competition and then dominating in conference play for perfect regular season records. 

For example: TCU finished 12-0 with dominating wins over ranked opponents Oregon State and Utah in 2010. The team also finished off the year with win over Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. Yet, the team still finished third in the BCS.

With the College Football Playoff now in place, there is now slightly more of an opportunity for smaller schools to break into the championship hunt. In this case, teams like TCU in 2010 and possibly one of Boise State's several undefeated teams in the 2000s would have landed in the playoff.

Despite no team outside the Power Five really challenging for a spot in the playoff last year—Boise State finished the highest, at No. 20 in the final rankings—the crop of teams in this category is much stronger in 2015. 

In order to have a chance to challenge for the College Football Playoff, schools from outside the Power Five will almost certainly have to finish the regular season undefeated. The following three programs have a solid shot at doing so this season and have other circumstances in their favor to have a shot to play for the national championship. 

Before getting to those three teams, it should be noted that Notre Dame will not be one of them. It is technically not a Power Five school, but it has the same luxuries and is treated the same as any other major program in terms of garnering national respect. With its prestige, Notre Dame could still lose a game and have a great chance to make the playoff, unlike the schools that will be discussed. 

Now let us take a look at the three schools in question.

Boise State 

The Broncos ended last season as the only non-Power Five school in the playoff rankings, and they enter this season in a familiar position in the Amway Coaches Poll, which 670 KBOI’s Paul Schneider was quick to notice: 

There is a lot of reason for optimism for head coach Bryan Harsin’s team. Boise State returns 16 starters and plenty of depth from a team that finished 12-2 in 2014 with a win over Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl. 

Despite losing top playmakers—Grant Hedrick at quarterback and Jay Ajayi at running back—the offense should be in good shape. Ryan Finley performed well in relief of Hedrick last season and the team has a stable of capable running backs led by junior Devan Demas and sophomore all-purpose back Jeremy McNichols. 

These new starters will be surrounded by a ton of talent. All five starters return on the offensive line, and leading receivers Thomas Sperbeck and Shane Williams-Rhodes, who combined for 119 catches for 1,462 yards and 10 scores, return as well. 

Boise State returns a plethora of talent on defense. Essentially the entire defensive line returns, including Mountain West Conference sack leader Kamalei Correa. Numerous other standouts also return. Take a look at some of the key pieces coming back for the Broncos:

Player	Tackles	Tackles for Loss	Sacks	Interceptions
DE Beau Martin	36	12	5.5	1
DE Kamalei Correa	59	19	12	0
CB Donte Deayon	46	2	1	6
LB Tanner Vallejo	100	16.5	3	1

The schedule sets up well for Boise State to make some noise. Nonconference games against major programs like BYU, Virginia and Washington will help the team earn some respect to boost its playoff resume if victorious. 

If Boise State can handily sweep its nonconference schedule and then dominate the Mountain West, which includes another strong team in Utah State, it could have a chance. Whether or not the playoff committee would vote in Boise State, or any other non-Power Five team, over a one-loss Big Ten or ACC team is tough to project at this point, but the Broncos will be in the conversation for sure.

Cincinnati 

Head coach Tommy Tuberville had a very successful 2014 campaign that saw Cincinnati finish with a 9-4 record and a three-way share of the American Athletic Conference championship. 

The team heads into this season as the media’s pick to win the conference, and for good reason. The Bearcats are loaded, particularly on offense. 

Quarterback Gunner Kiel is among the nation’s best signal-callers this season after throwing for 3,254 yards and 31 touchdowns in 2014. Those numbers are set to drastically increase. In addition to returning leading rusher Mike Boone and three offensive line starters, Kiel will have a dynamite receiving group. Check out the numbers of Cincinnati’s top six receivers from 2014, who all return: 

Player	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
Alex Chisum	22	242	2
Johnny Holten	29	431	5
Mekale McKay	44	725	8
Chris Moore	30	673	8
Max Morrison	45	458	4
Shaq Washington	66	761	4

The Bearcats will be able to score as well as any offense in the nation. This is important since the defense has some questions marks. 

The unit finished 101st in total defense last season, and it loses leading tackles Jeff Luc and its leader in sacks in Terrell Hartsfield. Star safety Zach Edwards is back and the defense should expect some improvement with a new defensive coordinator in Steve Clinkscale. Edwards led the team with two interceptions and finished second in tackles with 121.

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Cincinnati’s schedule presents several opportunities for statement wins. In addition to AAC foes Memphis and UCF, who also shared the conference title last season, Cincinnati has nonconference contests with BYU and Miami. 

The team has a very good shot to crash the playoff party if it can pull off an undefeated season. This will hinge largely on whether the defense can stop opponents just enough for the offense to outscore the other team. Expect Cincinnati to sweep its nonconference schedule against BYU and Miami since, outside of their quarterbacks, both teams lack the offensive explosiveness to keep up with the Bearcats. 

Cincinnati’s season will come down to its game against Memphis on Sept. 24. Speaking of which…

Memphis 

The Tigers were one of the biggest surprises of the college football season when they improved by seven wins to finish 10-3 with a share of the AAC title in 2015. 

Similar to Cincinnati, Memphis is primed for another big season behind a monster offense. 

Quarterback Paxton Lynch returns after a phenomenal sophomore season. Check out his improvement from his freshman season:

Year	Completion Percentage	Yards	Touchdowns	Interception	Rushing Touchdowns
2013	58.2	2.056	9	10	2
2014	62.7	3,031	22	9	13

Lynch, who stands at 6’7” and 240 pounds, has a NFL frame and arm to go along with a deceptively strong running ability that allows him to power through for tough yards, particularly in the red zone. Take a look at his highlight reel to get a visual of his skills: 

Lynch will have five of his top six receivers from 2014 back, along with four offensive linemen, so his production should increase even more in his third season as Memphis’ starter.

The defense could be an issue with eight starters gone from a unit that finished 21st nationally last season. The team also lost defensive coordinator Barry Odom to Missouri but promoted linebackers coach Galen Scott to take over the defense. 

The team has some experienced depth players that could step into starting roles and play well, particularly in front seven. Safety Reggis Ball is back, but he will need to have a big season, as the rest of the secondary will be seeing significant playing time for the first time at Memphis. 

Memphis also has the benefit of playing a massive nonconference game against SEC power Ole Miss, who enters the season at No. 15 in the coaches poll. The Tigers struggled in a 24-3 loss to the Rebels in 2014, but this season could be different. 

Ole Miss loses key secondary pieces in Senquez Golson and Cody Prewitt, which helps Lynch’s chances of moving the ball through the air. The Rebels also have questions on offense outside of star receivers Laquon Treadwell and Evan Engram. The team has not decided on a quarterback, and the offensive line is shaky other than Laremy Tunsil. With the game being at Memphis, the Tigers have a legitimate shot to pull off the upset and earn a marquee win for their playoff resume. 

Memphis will also need to knock off Cincinnati to have a shot at an undefeated season. The Tigers rocked the Bearcats 41-14 on the road. It will definitely be a shootout, but Memphis has the slight edge given it shown to have more talent on defense and it will have home-field advantage in 2015. 

Look for Memphis to be a dark horse as a possible surprise in the race to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff.