SEC Football: Teams Most Likely to Not Make a Bowl Game in 2015
It's August, which means your team—yes, even if you're a fan of Vanderbilt—is a surefire division title contender and a stone-cold, lead-pipe lock to make the second annual College Football Playoff.
Right?
That's not possible, though, and the roller coaster known as the college football season will send several teams home for the holidays instead of on a trip to a bowl game.
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Which SEC teams are most likely not to make a bowl game following the 2015 regular season?
Outside Looking in
Vanderbilt Commodores
Sorry, Vandy, but it's really hard to find something to love about this team outside of running back Ralph Webb.
It seemed like Patton Robinette was the natural fit to become the starting quarterback following spring practice, but he gave up football following spring due to health concerns and to focus on his own medical career.
That leaves Johnny McCrary, Wade Freebeck, Kyle Shurmur and Shawn Stankavage vying for the top spot on the depth chart. McCrary has the experience and Shurmur has the most upside, but it's not exactly like this is the ideal spot for first-year offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig to be in.
We'll see how it works with head coach Derek Mason calling the defensive plays, and having a solid end like Caleb Azubike to rely on will help.
That schedule, though, is a bear.
Ole Miss and Texas A&M are tough out of the west, the Commodores have to go to Florida and Tennessee—two of the toughest places to play in college football, and out-of-conference games vs. Western Kentucky and at Houston won't be easy.
Sorry, 'Dores fans. For the second straight season, the team won't go bowling.
Kentucky Wildcats
For the first month-and-a-half of the 2014 season, Kentucky looked like it had taken more than a small step forward, but a gigantic leap. Mark Stoops' Wildcats started 5-1 with their only blemish coming in triple overtime at Florida, before they lost six straight to close the season.
They'll be on the cusp again in 2015 thanks to underrated quarterback Patrick Towles and a defensive front that should be solid, but that schedule doesn't do Stoops any favors.
They draw Auburn at home out of the SEC West, but some of the advantage of playing on Thursday night is minimized due to the fact that Auburn, like Kentucky, has a bye beforehand. The following week, they have to travel to cross-division rival Mississippi State and deal with all of those cow bells.
They play South Carolina, Florida and Missouri in September, so if they're not clicking on all cylinders right out of the gate, bowl hopes could be dashed before the leaves change color.
Like last year, Kentucky will be competitive for the majority of the year. But it's going to have to spring multiple upsets to get to a bowl game.
Just Barely Bowling
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State was the darling of the college football world for the final two months of the regular season, but back-to-back losses to Ole Miss and Georgia Tech sent the Bulldogs to the offseason wondering what might have been.
I get that quarterback Dak Prescott is awesome, but the presence of a veteran quarterback is a wildly overstated offseason storyline. Five of the last six national titles were won by first-year starting quarterbacks, and eight of the last 12 starting quarterbacks in the national championship game were first-year starters. A veteran is helpful, but the supporting cast is much more important.
Mississippi State's supporting cast is questionable at best.
The Bulldogs lost three starters on an offensive line that was vital to Prescott's success last year, as well as five of seven starters in the defensive front seven. Head coach Dan Mullen has said all offseason that the backups played as much as reserves last year.
"When you look at guys like a Will Redmond, a Chris Jones, a Richie Brown who was an SEC Defensive Player of the Week one week last year, they're not returning starters because they didn't play the first play of the game," he said at SEC media days. "I don't view that as a real negative."
He's right, but Mississippi State's edge on defense was depth and continuity on defense, and the people that took those rotational snaps have more responsibility.
Mississippi State will get to a bowl, but only if it doesn't get upset along the way.
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina fell just short of the media's expectations last year, when it finished the regular season 6-6 after being picked to win the division at SEC media days.
This year will follow the same path.
The Gamecocks still are loaded with questions up front on defense—their biggest sore spot last year—and are still relatively young in the secondary. The presence of junior college defensive end Marquavius Lewis and new co-defensive coordinator Jon Hoke will certainly help, but will it be enough to overcome other deficiencies that developed?
I'm not sure.
The Gamecocks' most experienced quarterback—Connor Mitch—has only six career passing attempts, the offensive line has been shuffled around, running back Mike Davis is gone and aside from Pharoh Cooper—who's awesome—there isn't a proven playmaker outside.
They have to go to Texas A&M and get LSU out of the West the week after the Tigers get a tuneup, have Georgia, Tennessee and Missouri on the road and have a tough out-of-conference neutral-site opener vs. North Carolina to start the season.
Florida Gators
It seems like the immediate success of Urban Meyer at Florida and Ohio State, Nick Saban at Alabama, Gene Chizik and Gus Malzahn at Auburn and other coaches around the country has created an atmosphere in programs where immediate success is expected. The reality is that all situations are different, and Florida head coach Jim McElwain will struggle to orchestrate an immediate turnaround in year one in Gainesville.
The combination of offensive line concerns, a new offensive scheme and a new (or, perhaps, slightly experienced) quarterback is a recipe for disaster in the SEC, where games are won and lost in the trenches.
With the traditional cross-division rivalry with LSU along with a visit from the fearsome Ole Miss front seven in early October, the schedule doesn't do Florida any favors.
McElwain will take baby steps, get a bowl game and—most importantly—bowl practices, but every week will be a battle.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports. Statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com. Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on Sirius 93 XM 208.
Follow Barrett on Twitter: @BarrettSallee.
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