Looking Forward To 2010, Astros Have Tough Decisions to Make

When the Astros went to the World Series in 2005, the future looked great. 

Chris Burke, Morgan Ensberg and Jason Lane were three young players who looked like they were ready to live up to their prospective hype (Ensberg already had an MVP-type season).  Willy Taveras' speed, fielding prowess and throwing ability were a perfect fit for the formula the Astros had devised of terrific pitching, defense and small ball to win games.

The rotation of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt had three of the previous year's Cy Young contenders in it. 

And though Brad Lidge had had a rough post-season, the back end of the Astros bullpen with Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler and Lidge was as good as it got in the big leagues.

Then it all came apart. 

Chris Burke, Jason Lane, and Morgan Ensberg flamed out, leaving Berkman and Biggio as our only catalysts on offense. 

Pettitte had a decent 14-13 season with an ERA above 4, but nothing like the marvelous 2nd half tear he went on in 2005 to put himself in Cy Young contention and the Astros in the playoffs. 

Clemens pitched well but got no run support from a lackluster offense.

And Lidge apparently still hadn't recovered from a game 5 playoff homerun that didn't matter as the Astros went to the World Series anyway. 

In 2007, Clemens and Pettitte departed, the Astros traded Willy Taveras for Jason Jennings and signed Carlos Lee to help with the atrocious offensive woes of the past two years. 

But to no avail. 

The Astros continued to struggle and last year traded away Brad Lidge for Michael Bourn. They also traded away nearly every prospect they had for Miguel Tejada, a player who since has not only been alleged of taking steroids, but also lied about his age. That in addition to his huge contract makes him an untradeable commodity.

The Astros front office has put the organization in this terrible position.

So now, after another year of missing the playoffs, the 2009-2010 offseason will define the Astros philosophy. Will it change or remain the same?

Drayton McClane's position has been that he wants to put a competitive team on the field every year.  A team that can consistently contend for at least the division title and more. 

In doing so, the team has made no effort in raising home-grown young talent. 

Since their 2005 World Series appearance, Hunter Pence has been the only offensive prospect to make a difference in the Houston Astros lineup. 

Pitching-wise, Wandy Rodriguez is the only prospect to make a difference, and it has taken him since 2005 to finally hit his stride in the big leagues. 

Ed Wade was brought in to rebuild the farm system and has done a great job of it...so far.

Jason Castro looks like a solid catcher, though not projected to be an all-star, but still a reliable, smart, and consistent player.  Think in the mold of Brad Ausmus. 

The single-A pitching staff looks quite talented as well with four young arms, such as Ross Seaton and Jordan Lyles making waves. 

The problem is how far away those players are, and how old the current team is. 

Roy Oswalt has said he does not want to be part of a rebuilding process, considering he plans on retiring in 2011.  He wants to win a championship.

That means we have two years to either trade him to a contender, or try and raise a team in a hurry out of nothing. 

The first option seems more likely.

That leaves us with an aging offense and no pitching. 

Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and Miguel Tejada still have several years left in their big league careers.  How many more of those years will be productive is still yet to be seen.

However, it's hard to imagine that the Astros will have the proper pitching to support their offense in the next year or two. 

Right now, they have the offense, but not the pitching (On paper anyways. Lately the Astros have been losing due to no offense in support of the pitching.)

Their bullpen is solid as well with Jose Valverde and Latroy Hawkins at the back end. 

But with their 3-5 pitchers being a mix of Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, and Felipe Paulino or Bud Norris, it's not enough to make the team a contender. 

So next year they have a tough decision to make. 

Trade away more prospects in return for another solid arm in their rotation this off-season, thereby giving their team an all-or-nothing shot at 2010. Or say sorry to their veteran sluggers and pitchers to tell them the rebuilding process has begun and they will be going, not staying. 

If the latter option is chosen, the Astros will do everything they can to rid themselves of Carlos Lee's huge contract. They will also trade away Roy Oswalt, not because they want to but Oswalt won't want to be where winning isn't happening and it's only fair to give him that shot before his career ends.

The Astros probably should have traded away Jose Valverde and Miguel Tejada this season while they still had the chance, but they will at least receive compensation picks for next year if they do leave since both are top tier free agents.

As a result of all this, if the Astros could accomplish those specific trades and draft well, they could be competitive as soon as 2012 with a solid team of young prospects built around Lance Berkman's veteran leadership.

They could also make all the wrong picks, receive all the wrong prospects in those trades, setting the franchise back about four-six years. 

It would be a high-risk, high reward move.

Or...they could go for the gusto. Give Roy Oswalt the championship- caliber team he wants and send money out to any free agent, make any trade, and sacrifice the future of the team for the next two seasons and hope the veteran offensive firepower still remains productive. 

If the Astros do this, it will go against Ed Wade's plan to rebuild the farm system, and if the Astros don't make it to the post-season, the franchise will be set back even further by having no prospects on the rise, and every solid player they have aging, leaving via free agency, or demanding a trade. 

Regardless of which they choose, the team has put itself in a difficult position. 

Hopefully, as the Astros teams always do, with their backs against the wall they'll come out swinging and make all the right choices

Ed Wade is known for his scouting savvy (He is the one who drafted Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Cole Hamels to name a few.)  If he can get the right young players on board, and if Drayton McClane can realize the "win now" strategy doesn't work in baseball, they can get back to the level of consistent competitiveness they enjoyed in the 90's and most of the 2000's. 

No matter what, this off-season will determine if the Astros want to win now or later. 

Considering how the win now has gone, it may be time to finally choose the latter.