Predicting College Football's Offensive, Defensive Juggernauts for 2015
Wins and losses are the ultimate measuring stick in college football, but we still love our statistics. And with the game becoming becoming increasingly more up-tempo and fast-paced over time, there are plenty of numbers to crunch.
Last year saw at least eight schools average 40 or more points per game for the fifth consecutive year, while 11 schools gained more than 500 yards per contest. There were still some good defensive teams, but not like in the past, as the 16 points per game that top-rated defense Ole Miss allowed in 2014 marked the highest average for a national scoring defense leader (per NCAA records).
What does this year have in store for us, statistically? Follow along as we predict the top two rushing, passing and scoring offenses for the 2015 season, as well as the two best units at stopping the run and the pass and keeping teams off the scoreboard.
Rushing Offense: Georgia Southern
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Georgia Southern made an outstanding FBS debut last season, and it did so with a triple-option run game that was simply unstoppable. And with the top four ball-carriers back for 2015, there's no reason to believe the Eagles won't run all over their opponents again.
Quarterbacks Kevin Ellison and Favian Upshaw and running backs Matt Breida and Alfred Ramsby (all of whom are sophomores or juniors) combined to pace a rushing attack that averaged 379.9 yards per game. Georgia Southern's worst performance was a 227-yard output in a 28-25 win at Texas State, while it had two games with 500-plus rushing yards and scored 55 times on the ground.
The Eagles do have to replace most of their offensive line, a key element to the option attack, but the group that performed so well up front last year was doing so in the first year of head coach Willie Fritz's offense.
"The new starters should know the offense quite well and most saw action in 2014," wrote Haisten Willis of SBNation's Underdog Dynasty blog.
Rushing Offense: Georgia Tech
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Head coach Paul Johnson has tinkered with his offense at times over the years, but the version he put together in 2014 was his best yet. And though his Georgia Tech team will be sending out a whole new batch of backs and receivers this year, he's got some important elements returning from a unit that recorded more than 342 rushing yards per game.
Namely, quarterback Justin Thomas and four offensive linemen with a combined 72 career starts, according to research by Phil Steele.
Thomas ran for 1,086 yards and eight touchdowns last season, the third-most yards for a quarterback behind Navy's Keenan Reynolds and Boston College's Tyler Murphy. Despite averaging less than 14 carries per game, Thomas had five 100-yard performances, including one against Mississippi State in the Orange Bowl when he also scored three times.
Georgia Tech has averaged at least 295 rushing yards in each of the past six seasons.
Passing Offense: California
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California went from 1-11 in Sonny Dykes' first season as head coach to 5-7 last year, missing out on a bowl bid after falling to BYU in the final game of the year. The Golden Bears should have a good chance to reach a bowl for the first time since 2011 thanks to a passing game that is as unrelenting as they come.
Last year, Cal ranked sixth in FBS in passing offense at 346 yards per game, with the bulk of that coming from sophomore quarterback Jared Goff. He threw for 3,973 yards and 35 touchdowns with just seven interceptions in 509 pass attempts.
Goff has thrown for more than 7,400 yards in his career, and the 746 yards he needs to become Cal's all-time passing leader is likely to be achieved before the second game of the season is over.
Because the Bears have one of the worst defenses in FBS, allowing 39.8 points and 511.8 yards per game last season, they need to throw early and often to avoid falling behind. That plays right into Goff's hands and gives Cal a great chance to be the national leader in passing offense.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Passing Offense: Western Kentucky
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Brandon Doughty thought he was wrapping up his college career last season, so he figured he might as well go for broke after struggling through years of injuries. Little did he know he'd end up getting a sixth year of eligibility and thus a second opportunity to decimate opposing secondaries.
The Western Kentucky quarterback threw for 4,830 yards and 49 touchdowns last season, both of which led FBS. All told, the Hilltoppers ranked second in passing offense at 374.3 yards per game, and that included some stinkers in which they had 145 against Louisiana Tech and 178 against Army.
Take those out, and Western Kentucky's other 11 games averaged 413 yards per game.
Doughty missed nearly all of the 2011 and 2012 seasons because of knee injuries, but he's thrown for 7,687 yards in 25 games in the past two years.
Scoring Offense: Ohio State
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We still don't know who will play quarterback for defending national champion Ohio State, but whomever head coach Urban Meyer goes with will likely to be at the wheel of the highest-scoring team in the country.
With a monster running back in Ezekiel Elliott, a converted dual-threat quarterback (Braxton Miller) now getting to show his stuff as a wide receiver and plenty of other major weapons, the Buckeyes are going to put up points in bunches no matter who is on the field at QB.
Using both J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones last season, OSU averaged 44.8 points per game and topped the 50-point barrier six times. Nearly the entire offensive group is back, with the addition of Miller—who missed all of 2014 because of shoulder surgery—giving the Buckeyes yet another weapon.
Scoring Offense: TCU
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TCU made a change to its offense heading into the 2014 season, and the results couldn't have been better. Going from 25.1 to 46.5 points per game, the Horned Frogs had the highest single-season bump in scoring of any team in the country, and it was a huge reason they went from 4-8 to 12-1 and hoped for a playoff spot.
Back from that group are all the big names that were helping light up the scoreboard, led by Heisman contender Trevone Boykin at quarterback and a strong group of fast receivers and a running back in Aaron Green, who scored 11 touchdowns despite not starting until November.
What TCU did last year was amazing, even more so when you think that it was the product of an offense that had just been implemented the previous spring.
"Now in Year 2 of the offense, TCU's players feel there's even less caution than before," Bleacher Report's Ben Kercheval wrote. "Considering practically the entire starting lineup is returning, it's possible the Frogs could improve on their numbers from '14."
Rush Defense: Alabama
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When Alabama allowed Ezekiel Elliott to run wild during last season's Sugar Bowl, it caused its season average to rise from 88 to 102 yards allowed per game and thus prevented the Crimson Tide from having the top rush defense in the country. Assuming they don't have a performance like that along the way this season, the Tide's veteran front seven should be the toughest in the country to run on.
No other team averaged more than 4.2 yards per carry against Alabama in 2014, and few will come close to that rate this fall. Not with Jonathan Allen, Jarran Reed and A'Shawn Robinson on the line and linebackers Ryan Anderson, Denzel Devall, Reuben Foster and Reggie Ragland flying in from the second level.
Alabama's backups are just as good, with former Bleacher Report writer Marc Torrence noting that "the defensive line will be as loaded as it's ever been, able to go six or seven deep depending on the situation."
Rushing Defense: Michigan State
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Last year's top-ranked rush defense, allowing 88.46 yards per game, held six opponents to 50 or fewer yards on the ground. Some notable contributors to that effort have moved on, but Michigan State is as deep as ever up front and again should be stifling against the run.
"Dominance is the goal this season for Michigan State's defensive line," Mike Griffith of MLive.com wrote.
Four-year starter Marcus Rush is gone from the line, but returning are standouts Shilique Calhoun and Joel Heath, as well as rising sophomore Malik McDowell. The 6'6", 286-pound McDowell had 4.5 tackles for loss as a true freshman in 2014 but should make a bigger contribution this season.
The linebacker corps lost Taiwan Jones, but Ed Davis and Riley Bullough are back. Last year, that duo combined for 16 tackles for loss.
Passing Defense: Duke
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Duke allowed only one opponent to throw for more than 300 yards last season, with its five-man secondary combining to intercept nine passes and hold foes to only a 55.8 percent rate. The Blue Devils have that entire unit returning, led by top-tier safeties Jeremy Cash and DeVon Edwards.
Cash, a fifth-year senior, had 232 tackles the past two seasons while splitting time between run and pass defense. Edwards, who also handled kick returns, is junior who had 133 tackles in 2014. Cornerbacks Breon Borders, Bryon Fields and Deondre Singleton combined to break up 15 passes, per CFBStats.com.
"With so much skill and experience returning to the secondary in 2015, optimism has never been higher for Duke's pass defense," Chris Bunn of 247Sports wrote.
Passing Defense: West Virginia
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What was somewhat of a weakness for West Virginia for many years could be its biggest strength in 2015, as the Mountaineers bring back a veteran secondary that had some good performances last year and will need to match those throughout the upcoming season.
Cornerbacks Terrell Chestnut and Daryl Worley and safeties K.J. Dillon and Karl Joseph held five of the top 30 passing offenses in the country—Alabama, Baylor, TCU, Texas A&M and Texas Tech—below their season averages. That included limiting Baylor (366 yards per game) to 223 yards and TCU (326 per game) to 166.
This season, West Virginia is rebuilding on offense and expects to lean heavily on its defense. This starts with the back line, which has a chance to be the best in the nation.
Scoring Defense: Ole Miss
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The Landsharks that Ole Miss had roaming on defense last year were a heck of a group, holding four opponents to a field goal or less last season. Star defensive backs Senquez Golson and Cody Prewitt have moved on, as well as two key linebackers, but with a completely intact defensive line and plenty of great backups ready to step up in the secondary, the Rebels will not only have the SEC's top defense but possibly the best in the country.
Robert Nkemdiche will anchor a line that defensive line coach Chris Kiffin hopes to rotate between eight and 10 players, according to Bleacher Report's Christopher Walsh. C.J. Johnson has moved to linebacker to fill a void there alongside Denzel Nkemdiche.
In the secondary the Rebels will lean on Tony Bridges, Tony Conner, Trae Elston and Tee Shepard, the last of whom is looking to make a splash after missing all of last season with a toe injury.
The 42 points that Ole Miss gave up to TCU in the Peach Bowl last year was an anomaly compared to the rest of the season. It also served as motivation for this year's unit, which will again be the strength of the Rebels.
Scoring Defense: Temple
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Temple's defense flew under the radar last season despite posting some of the best results in the country. Missing out on a bowl bid despite winning six games had something to do with that, but so did playing in the American Athletic Conference that didn't get much national attention.
Don't expect Temple's defense to go unnoticed this year, though, not with home games against Penn State and Notre Dame to show off a unit that returns all 11 starters. That group is spearheaded by senior linebacker Tyler Matakevich, who has 355 tackles the past three seasons.
Last year, the Owls held seven teams to 16 or fewer points and gave up 17.5 points per game for the year.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
