Daily Fantasy Football 2015: Rookie and Sleeper QB's to Target Early

Daily fantasy football owners get one quarterback per contest, and like the real deal, it's a make-or-break decision when it comes to wins and losses.

Different schools of thought exist on how to handle the signal-caller in DFS. High-floor guys like Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers provide a surefire clip of production but at the cost of gambles elsewhere.

More interesting are rookies and sleepers who come at reasonable prices, allowing owners to go and get a Calvin Johnson or Le'Veon Bell, stacking the multiplayer positions where most of the contest's point totals will come from without fail.

For owners who prefer the latter route, a trip down advanced-metrics lane and a deep dive on the landscape of the league reveal 2015's early can't-miss rookies and sleepers.

Rookies

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,000)

What, expecting someone else?

Jameis Winston was one of the most hyped quarterback prospects out of college since Andrew Luck. If ignoring the high-floor approach under center, the No. 1 pick with a booming arm and ability to read defenses on the fly in a good situation doesn't sound bad, right?

Winston sits at $6,000 for the season opener, with names such as Andy Dalton ($6,100), Alex Smith ($6,200) and Geno Smith ($6,300) being pricier options. Yet Winston has Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans at wideout, the latter of whom posted 1,051 yards and 12 scores in his debut season last year. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a big target (6'5", 262 lbs) at tight end, and both Doug Martin and Charles Sims can catch passes out of the backfield.

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

It's easy to write off the Buccaneers and Winston, but it's a budding situation—so long as the offensive line improves on the unit that ranked dead last in pass protection last year at Pro Football Focus. It should given the presence of second-round rookies Donovan Smith and Ali Marpet at left tackle and right guard, respectively.

There's also the early schedule to consider. Three of Tampa Bay's first four opponents ranked in the green at RotoGrinders last year in NFL defense vs. quarterback rankings, meaning they allowed a minimum of 17.23 points per game to the position. The exception? The Houston Texans, but not by much.

With massive wideout targets, an improved line and bodies all over the field able to turn short passes into bigger gains against favorable competition, Winston isn't a rookie to ignore.

Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans ($6,000)

This is what happens after one of the weakest (or top-heavy) draft classes in memory. 

Marcus Mariota wouldn't be a bad option most years, but he takes a higher slot on the ladder given the lack of rookie options. At the least, there doesn't seem to be any doubt he's the starter over Zach Mettenberger, per Jim Wyatt of Titans Online:

The nice thing about Mariota? While owners can shy away from the whispers about his college system and how it translates, his ability to rush the ball isn't going anywhere and in part erases the fact Tennessee's line was almost as bad as Tampa Bay's last year.

Mariota averaged a whopping 5.7 yards per rush or more in each of his three seasons at Oregon. Pocket lapses and open running lanes will mesh well with even iffy passing production to give owners a reliable start. The backfield behind him isn't anything special, but at the least, Mariota also has big-bodied targets such as rookie wideout Dorial Green-Beckham (6'5", 237 lbs) and Delanie Walker (6'0", 248 lbs) to hit.

Over Mariota's first four games, he faces favorable matchups when it comes to DvP rankings, too, with the exception of the Week 5 encounter with the Buffalo Bills, but he gets a Week 4 bye to prep for the showdown.

Sleepers 

Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders ($6,100)

When it comes to Oakland Raiders second-year gunslinger Derek Carr, the only way to go is up. 

Last year, the former Fresno State star completed 58.1 percent of his passes for 3,270 yards and 21 touchdowns to 12 picks. An average of 13.2 fantasy points per game at DraftKings didn't blow anyone away, but it's a sign of things to come.

It's easy to miss the fact Oakland's line ranked 12th in pass-blocking last year at PFF. There's increased competition, too, so Carr should have more time. Behind Carr is Latavius Murray, but in case things take a major change, Oakland should be passing plenty.

Look to the draft and free agency for proof. The team spent the cash on Michael Crabtree at wideout and grabbed Alabama's Amari Cooper at No. 4. Cooper, the guy who single-handedly changed Nick Saban's run-first approach and wound up as one of three Heisman Trophy finalists thanks to 124 grabs for 1,727 yards and 16 scores.

In the third round, the Raiders grabbed one of the draft's most criminally underrated players in Miami (Fla.) tight end Clive Walford, a 6'4", 250-pound target who gives the offense a slick one-two punch at the position in tandem with Mychal Rivera.

The lone issue to start the season is Oakland's schedule, which is what happens when the first three games of the season come against AFC North teams. Two are at home, though, and Carr isn't a rookie. Expect big things.

Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings ($6,600)

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Teddy Bridgewater is a bit pricier than Carr but in the same situation.

He completed 64.4 percent of his attempts last year with 2,919 yards and a 14-12 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions, which is the big red flag. The numbers came over 13 games, as did his 15.4 fantasy points per game.

For owners looking for a bargain, it's a good thing Bridgewater's debut campaign unfolded the way it did; he's a steal now. Think about it: Last year, the Louisville product didn't have Adrian Peterson or notable wideouts.

The result? A whopping 21 dropped passes, per PFF. It ranked him 21st in the league. Every player with more dropped passes and a higher rank than him took more snaps. Bridgewater was also sacked 39 times, tied for seventh-most in the league.

Now for the changes. Massive target Kyle Rudolph (6'6", 265 lbs) is healthy after seeing action in just nine games last year. Peterson is back after just one appearance. Cordarrelle Patterson is still around but no longer the No. 1 target thanks to the addition of Mike Wallace, meaning he can catch the underneath passes emulating kick returns and post big gains.

With better outside, reliable receivers and the threat of AP in the backfield, Bridgewater's price won't stick here long. Capitalize as soon as possible.

Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,900)

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Look, an offense capable of making Mark Sanchez look like a viable option in certain matchups last year deserves a look on any sleeper list.

Sam Bradford's a risk. Everyone knows his deal with injuries by now. He's also one of the luckiest quarterbacks in the NFL after landing with the Philadelphia Eagles. It just sounds like it, too, as Reuben Frank of CSNPhilly.com captured:

One look at the stats from last year says it all. Sanchez and Foles didn't have a choice but to throw for high percentages, and the offense squeezed the most out of its available weapons.

As it will this year, too, with DeMarco Murray in the backfield and pass-catching weapons Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles spelling him. Don't forget Riley Cooper and rookie Nelson Agholor at wideout or Zach Ertz at tight end.

Bradford appeared on the cusp of something great in 2013 through seven games, when he completed a career-high 60.7 percent of his passes with 14 scores to four picks. Now all he has to do is orchestrate a quick-fire attack right from the brain of an offensive mastermind.

Maybe that makes it sound too easy. But look at the schedule, too; the first four games are a cakewalk when it comes to DvP rankings at quarterback, with all four teams surrendering a minimum of 17.87 points to quarterbacks on average, with Washington leading all teams at 21.44.

Bradford's going to explode out of the gates. Owners who want a bargain and to stock up elsewhere don't need to look any further.

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Pricing information and scoring data obtained from DraftKings.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus unless otherwise specified.