Fantasy Football 2015: 10th-Round Values to Target and Reaches to Avoid

It is imperative for fantasy football owners to be aware of the values to target and reaches to avoid once the 10th round opens in standard redrafts. Owen Daniels tops the reaches, while Anquan Boldin and Eric Decker are excellent values for depth at wide receiver even a round or two earlier than the 10th.

Championship rosters are fortified in the late-middle rounds while the other guy is worrying about filling out his starting lineup. Avoid reaching on team defenses until at least the 12th or 13th and save kickers for the last round of your draft.

Fantasy owners found several sleepers and busts in 2014’s 10th round, according to My Fantasy League.com. Dwayne Bowe (108th ADP), Riley Cooper (109th) and Danny Woodhead (111th)—due to season-ending injury—burned owners who took fliers on them early in the 10th. Ben Roethlisberger (113th), DeAndre Hopkins (115th) and Martellus Bennett (118th) rose to the ranks of every-week starters.

Use this list to help you differentiate between 2015’s 10th-round values and reaches.

Guidelines

• Players listed are currently being drafted in the 10th round on average—the 108th through 119th position overall.
• Only the standard-scoring, season-long, redraft format was considered when compiling this list.
• Reach simply indicates the player’s average draft position (ADP) is well ahead of his expert consensus ranking (ECR), according to Fantasy Pros.
• Value means the opposite: said player is dropping well below his ranking in ADP and should be targeted in between those two positions.

Honorable Mention

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Bush's value in San Francisco's RBBC doesn't warrant a 10th-round selection.

Value: Breshad Perriman, Baltimore Ravens

Rookies tend to outperform their ADP because fantasy owners are reluctant to take chances on the unknown. Perriman grades in the ninth round (103th overall), but is dropping into the 10th (110th).

It’s not a huge gap for a player expected to produce at a WR4 level in his first NFL season, but Baltimore’s first-rounder out of UCF is landing in a very favorable position opposite Steve Smith Sr. in a Marc Trestman-coordinated offense.

Value: Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons

It’s almost silly to promote a running back heading into a committee situation, which is why Freeman only makes mention as a value by technicality (ECR: 100, ADP: 112).

New offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will likely shift the Falcons back to a more balanced offense from a rushing perspective, but 2015 third-round pick Tevin Coleman figures to get first crack at RB1 snaps.

Shanahan operated a RBBC in Cleveland last season, so keep an eye on Atlanta’s backfield as the situation develops through training camp.  

Reach: Reggie Bush, San Francisco 49ers

Owners drafting Bush at ADP 118 (ECR 130) might be a bit too excited about the already-outdated news of Carlos Hyde starting training camp on the NFI list. The 49ers official Twitter page reported Hyde was reactivated on July 29.

Bush still brings explosive potential on passing downs, but will be limited behind Hyde in the RBBC rotation. Plus, the nine-year veteran has only completed two healthy seasons.

Bush will be a serviceable fantasy RB4, but he should be allowed to linger on draft boards for another round.

Reach: Percy Harvin, Buffalo Bills

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Fantasy owners would be wise to ignore Harvin's predictions and avoid him unless he falls to at least the 12th round.

I’m an advocate of second chances, but at this point Harvin’s asking fantasy owners for a third, fourth even fifth pardon for missed time and poor production. It’s been one stint in free agency, two trades and three disappointing seasons since Harvin cracked the top 10 in fantasy scoring among wide receivers back in 2011 for the Vikings.

Harvin offers no contrition, rather promising to “explode” in a way the world has yet to see, according to ESPN.com’s Mike Rodak on Twitter.

Said explosion is supposed to take place on a Bills team run by Rex Ryan on an offense coordinated by Greg Roman and quarterbacked by whoever wins the training camp battle between Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor.

Of course Harvin has the ability, but a team anchored by an elite defense and strong running philosophy isn’t likely to afford him many opportunities.

Harvin’s ADP actually dipped into the 11th round recently (No. 124), but it’s still a stretch considering his grade in the mid-12th round (No. 139). If you’re looking for a game-breaker to stick on the bench near the end of drafts, look to John Brown from the Arizona Cardinals instead (ECR 109, ADP 139).

Draft-day takeaway: Third wide receivers in Roman’s offenses don’t yield much fantasy production: Ted Ginn Jr. finished 117th among WRs in 2011, Randy Moss 71st in 2012, Kyle Williams 130th in 2013 and Stevie Johnson 78th in 2014.

Value: Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints

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Colston still has the ability and opportunity to be a serviceable WR3 in fantasy.

Saints head coach Sean Payton said the team kept Colston sidelined for the first few days of camp for precautionary reasons, according to ESPN.com’s Mike Triplett.

“We have to be smart with where Marques is at. The reps are one thing, but making sure he’s getting into football shape…I think we’ll do a good job with some veteran players, he being one of them.”

Health is a concern for a player who’s never started 16 games in a single season, and only competed in 16 games in four out of nine campaigns. Yet Colston’s only been targeted under 100 times once in his career (88 in 2008).

There’s little doubt the 32-year-old will remain a pertinent part of the Saints passing offense with Kenny Stills and Jimmy Graham out of the picture.

Yet Colston is dropping into the 10th round (119th ADP) despite ranking high in the ninth (99th ECR). The WR2 in a Payton/Drew Brees offense should not be ignored this long.

Draft-day takeaway: Colston tied for 31st in fantasy scoring among wide receivers in 2014.

Reach: Owen Daniels, Denver Broncos

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Daniels value to the Broncos is as much teacher as it is on-field producer.

Odds are the only reason Daniels joined the Broncos is because Gary Kubiak became Denver’s head coach just months earlier. The nine-year veteran played exclusively under the offensive guru for his entire career.

Fellow tight end Virgil Green said, "All the tight ends, and I'm pretty sure a lot of the guys on the team in general, look up to him, especially his leadership," according to Andrew Mason of Denver Broncos.com.

Mason also reported Daniels is “happy to be in that teacher role.”

Daniels played at a Pro Bowl level as recently as 2012, but at 32 years old he will likely share playing time with Green. It’s tempting to think playing with Peyton Manning will boost Daniels’ stats, but the 18th-ranked tight end in fantasy scoring last season isn’t likely to catapult into TE1-worthy production.

Fantasy owners are picking Daniels at the start of the 10th round (111th) despite his 11th-round grade (129th). If you’re waiting this long to add a tight end, take Delanie Walker (ECR 101, ADP 127) instead.

Draft-day takeaway: Daniels never scored more than six touchdowns in a season, limiting his upside potential.

Value: Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers

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Boldin is quietly poised to post WR2 numbers for the third-straight season.

Boldin virtually disappeared from the collective fantasy consciousness over the past two seasons in a feeble 49ers passing offense—the NFL’s third worst 2013-14.

How else do you explain how a player finishing 15th and 21st in fantasy scoring among wide receivers over the past two seasons, respectively, isn’t getting drafted until the 10th round on average (116th)?  

As if that wasn’t lopsided enough, 91 percent of experts on Fantasy Pros rank Boldin higher than his ADP. The public is completely overlooking his potential, considering Pro Football Focus ranked him 18th among wide receivers last year; sixth in 2013.

Plus, San Francisco replaced Michael Crabtree with a legitimate field-stretching threat in Torrey Smith, which should relieve some of the attention on Boldin. Defenses will also need to respect Reggie Bush’s receiving ability out of the backfield on passing downs and a rejuvenated Vernon Davis down the seam, according to ESPN.com’s Paul Gutierrez on Twitter.

If head coach Mike Tomsula and offensive coordinator Geep Chryst actually allow Colin Kaepernick to use his legs more in 2015, it will only further assist receivers against defenders who will have to keep one eye on the quarterback.

Boldin’s 92nd-rated ECR (WR38) feels like an oversight by the analysts as well. The 34-year-old hasn’t missed a start in San Francisco, and he should reward fantasy owners with WR2 output for a WR4 price.

Draft-day takeaway: Boldin accounted for 37 percent of San Francisco’s receiving production in his two seasons with the 49ers.

Value: Eric Decker, New York Jets

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Marshall (No. 15) should reveal plenty of opportunities for Decker (No. 87).

Decker spent most of his first season with the Jets suffering from nagging hamstring and toe injuries, never topping more than 74 yards through the first three months of the season.

But the five-year veteran exploded in December after declaring himself 100 percent in mid-November, according to Brian Costello of the New York Post. It’s true Decker’s burst came in the downswing of New York’s forgettable season, but 25 catches for 431 yards (17.24 YPC) in four games is an alluring snapshot of what could come in a healthy season.

New offensive coordinator Chan Gailey brings a strong running pedigree, which does not degrade the passing game with an effective play-action. The pressure on Geno Smith and/or Ryan Fitzpatrick will be alleviated through an already established rushing attack with versatile weaponry in Zac Stacy, Bilal Powell, Stevan Ridley and Chris Ivory.

Smith and Fitzpatrick are decent scramblers who will be encouraged to create on offense, holding defenses tight while Decker and trade acquisition Brandon Marshall test the outside.

Decker shouldn’t be the anchor of your wide receiving corps, but with an 82nd ranking versus 115th ADP, it’s clear the experts are bullish on his WR2 potential compared to the public.

Draft-day takeaway: Decker finished sixth among wide receivers in fantasy scoring over the last three weeks (13.4 PPG), according to FFtoday.com.

Average draft position and consensus ranking courtesy of Fantasy Pros, NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference , fantasy stats provided by CBS Sports.com, contract and salary cap information provided by Over the Cap unless otherwise noted.