Rays and Cubs Could Be Perfect Trading Partners Over Winter

At some point this off-season, if Cubs General Manager Jim Hendry is smart, he will pick up the phone and dial Tampa Bay Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman, and say those magical baseball words: "Let's make a deal."

And if Friedman is as shrewd an executive as his reputation suggests, he will likely listen well to what Hendry has to say.

The Cubs and Rays could not be more different franchises. The Cubs' first organizational tenet is conservatism: their management personnel have instilled a top-to-bottom philosophy of traditional scouting, traditional player evaluation, and traditional free agent spending sprees for a big-market club. Manager Lou Piniella, though never content to run the same lineup onto the field for very long, shows a strong resistance to experimental or sabermetric propositions, like placing batters with high on-base percentages in the leadoff spot even if they lack speed, or reserving his relief ace for a non-closing role. Hendry ignores research indicating that a player generally peaks around age 26, and has committed hundreds of millions of Cubs dollars to veteran free agents since 2007. Scouting director Tim Wilken selects a higher percentage of high-school pitchers in his drafts than all but a handful of other Major League draft czars.

By contrast, Rays manager Joe Maddon recently dyed his hair black. Though he would never admit it, this was partly for the same reason that the character Creed does so in season four of NBC's The Office: he's afraid of being run out of town, should anyone discover his age. Tampa reached the World Series in 2008 largely on the strength of young players who came through their system, and most of these were young. Maddon has tried out a closer-by-committee approach, and every other approach one can imagine for the handling of a bullpen, many by necessity. The Rays received Baseball America's Organization of the Year Award for 2008, based on their playoff success and on their pipeline of Minor League talent.

For all the differences, though, the Rays and Cubs enter the off-season with a common problem. Each has had a disappointing season in a year when they were expected to assert their dominance... and each has done so largely because of their bullpen woes. Chicago tried Kevin Gregg at closer, which was an abject failure. The Rays built a bullpen as sturdy as a house of cards, relying on Troy Percival and Jason Isringhausen to shoulder the closer load early, before turning to a fistful of other options as the season wore on and the two veterans collapsed into ineffectiveness and injury.

Moreover, each team signed outfield bats last off-season, anticipating injections of power and on-base percentage into their respective lineups. Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell have each been profound disappointments, however, due to injury (Burrell) and lack of power production (Bradley). The Cubs must now move the disgruntled right fielder, to solve problems with their outfield defense. The Rays can only hope Burrell will stay healthy and robust next season as their DH.

It is the paradoxical combination of these major differences, and the notable commonality, that make the two natural trading partners. The Rays need to bolster their pen, but won't have the money to bring in free agents Jose Valverde or Rafael Soriano. The Cubs, who lack for many things but not for money, can take whichever of those two Hendry judges better. Then, armed with a surplus of right-handed pitchers with nasty stuff, Hendry can turn around and trade Carlos Marmol, the Cubs' 2009 closer Plan B, to Tampa.

Marmol has lost all concept of the strike zone this season, with 61 walks in 67 2/3 innings. But he also has a career batting average against of .180, and has not been over .169 in any of his three seasons as a reliever in Chicago. And Marmol has take to the closer's role: He has eight saves in eight opportunities since earning the job in mid-August. He strikes out about 11.5 batters per nine innings pitched, an astronomical number. And he will make less than $2 million next season, which may be the most important point in his favor. He is not the best option available, but he is Tampa's best option.

In return, the Cubs could try to acquire Tampa Bay outfielder Carl Crawford. Crawford is also economical in his way, from the Cubs' perspective anyway: although an assignment bonus would escalate Crawford's option for next season to $10.5 million, the Cubs could see a one-year commitment at that price as less risky than a five-year, $40-50 million deal with Chone Figgins. And Crawford fits the bill for the Cubs, who will need a top-of-the-order hitter with the speed to play center field once they find a new home for Bradley.

Of course, the Cubs would have to sweeten such a deal. Sean Marshall, their left-handed swingman who has both started and relieved in his career, will qualify for arbitration for the first time in 2010, and the Cubs may choose to include him or infielder Mike Fontenot as the extra piece in a deal involving Crawford and Marmol.

If this deal were pulled off, and the Rays' coaching staff could correct the problems with Marmol's arm slot mechanics that have led to his wildness, both teams could substantially benefit from it. The Cubs would have the true lead-off man for which Piniella is so desperate, and a new closer, which Hendry will be eager to obtain in order to secure his job beyond 2010. The Rays would have their closer, too, plus added depth in Marshall or Fontenot, and also would save themselves the headache of finding top prospect Desmond Jennings the Major League playing time he is ready to claim. And each team would be operating within the framework of their overarching philosophies.

Of course, it's possible the Rays won't want to part with Crawford until they are more certain about the inconsistent B.J. Upton. It's also possible Chicago will be turned off by Crawford's relatively low OBP for a lead-off type. But in the grand scheme of things, both teams should realize that the risks are worth the potential reward: a return to their 2008 forms.