Magic 2015-16 Schedule: Top Games, Championship Odds and Record Predictions
Heading into their fourth season of the post-Dwight Howard era, the time is now for the Orlando Magic to start making progress. They've had three top-five picks and four lottery selections in the past three years, also adding Tobias Harris and Nikola Vucevic in the process to build a solid young core.
Orlando has 10 players on its roster under the age of 25, all but two of whom were first-round picks. On paper, it's a perfect blueprint of how to build. Keep adding young assets, lie in wait for a superstar to become available, and discard the nonessentials in a blockbuster that completes the long-term core.
The Magic aren't there yet. Their biggest move of this offseason was retaining Tobias Harris, whose $16 million per-season average looks worse now than it will with the rising cap. Harris has a bit of Empty Stats All-Star in him, but it's not an unmovable contract if a deal comes along. The Magic, with a multitude of good contracts, are primed for a major move within the next year or two.
The problem at hand is making this roster attractive enough for those potential stars. Orlando hasn't won more than 25 games since Howard left, a process it tried to rectify this offseason by hiring Scott Skiles. Known for preaching defensive principles and a somewhat surly disposition, Skiles has a tendency for coaxing maximum possible effort from his players early in his tenure. We'll probably look back at the hire less fondly in a few years, but there's at least an outside shot these Magic can compete for a low playoff seed in the weak East.
At the very least, now is the time to start showing improvement. General manager Rob Hennigan might be the one with the warming seat next, and this core is promising enough that reaching the mid-30-win plateau should be the bare minimum.
With the NBA releasing its full schedule Wednesday—the Magic's 82-game slate can be seen here—let's take a look at some of the biggest contests and see whether Orlando can pull it off.
Marquee Matchups
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic
Date: Sunday, Dec. 20 (6 p.m. ET)
While it ultimately didn't come to fruition, the Magic did try to make a big splash this summer.
Their four-year, $80 million offer to Paul Millsap, according to ESPN.com's Chris Broussard, was perhaps the most surprising news of the first couple of days of free agency. Millsap, at age 30, did not mesh with Orlando's core on paper. He'd provide floor spacing and veteran leadership, but the Magic still would have been lacking in rim protection with a Millsap-Vucevic frontcourt.
Alas, we never had the chance to parse the logic behind the move. Millsap spurned Orlando's offer to make an Atlanta return, betting on himself once again on a short-term deal that could allow him a big-time offer in 2017. There's also the whole matter of Atlanta being the East's No. 1 seed a year ago and fashioning itself a title contender.
The Magic don't have many natural rivals at this point in their development, but trying to procure an Atlanta cornerstone at least makes this game a little more interesting. I'll be interested to see the reaction Millsap receives from fans. It's not as if he DeAndre Jordan'd the situation. Still, there was a contingent early in the free-agency process that really thought he'd be throwing up the deuces—especially considering Atlanta only had early Bird rights.
These are two teams on different planes in the East, but at least there's some storyline intrigue here.
Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic
Date: Friday, Nov. 27 (7 p.m. ET)
For my money, these are the East's two most intriguing young rosters. The Bucks went from the NBA's worst record to a playoff team in Jason Kidd's first season and improved this offseason. They retained Khris Middleton on a solid long-term deal, added an offensive centerpiece inside with Greg Monroe and traded for Greivis Vasquez.
Some of those moves are confusing—giving up a first-round pick for Vasquez was plain strange—but Milwaukee has young depth at nearly every position. Jabari Parker, the No. 2 pick in 2014, will also be returning after suffering an ACL tear last December. Parker was averaging 12.3 points and 5.5 boards before the injury—not world-beating numbers yet still enough to encourage Bucks fans he can be a foundational piece.
The Bucks are also an interesting stylistic matchup because they can defend Orlando at all five positions. Michael Carter-Williams, for all his offensive flaws, will be a fun head-to-head with Elfrid Payton. Middleton and Victor Oladipo are rising three-and-D shooting guards well under the age of 25. Giannis Antetokounmpo is due for a major leap this season and can give Harris headaches. The Channing Frye-Parker and Vucevic-Monroe dynamics are also fun inside.
Really, the only difference in the cores in Milwaukee and Orlando is that the former has seen some tangible on-court progress. The Magic have been stuck in low gear, while the Bucks have already crawled out of their nadir.
If you're looking for a random game on a Friday between two young, hungry teams, this is going to be a good one.
Record Prediction
The Magic need to take a leap this season. No one inside the front office or coaching staff would argue. They're a mid-market team that hasn't attracted big-time free agents since the Grant Hill/Tracy McGrady blockbuster gone awry. This core needs to show improvement so that it can transition into the next step.
Good news: Orlando will be better. Jacque Vaughn was probably the NBA's worst coach last season. Skiles, though not the person I would have hired for the job, is a demonstrably better coach. Guys will play hard for him, or they won't play at all. That's the gift and curse with Skiles—it's his way or the highway.
The bad news: Orlando won't be good. There is still no star-level attraction who is ready to take the leap. Oladipo and Vucevic top out as very good complementary starters, Payton and Aaron Gordon can't shoot, Harris is the textbook definition of an average NBA starter, and Mario Hezonja is the great unknown. The pieces to a very good team are here—it's just missing the most important ingredient.
Still, look for a sizable improvement.
Championship Odds (via Odds Shark): 250-1
Record Prediction: 33-49
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.
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