Every Big Ten Football Team's Odds to Make College Football Playoff
Another college football season means it's time for a fresh round of season predictions for the Big Ten and the College Football Playoff. While that's simple in its premise, it's not so simple when it comes to boiling things down to the final chances of actually reaching the playoff at season's end.
We're a year into the College Football Playoff era, and hopefully, we're all a year wiser about where the Big Ten stacks up nationally. Last season, the Big Ten was a bit of a mystery. Heck, it wasn't even considered all that crazy to believe the Big Ten would be completely left out of the inaugural College Football Playoff.
How crazy those predictions seem now.
Michigan State overcame a 21-point deficit in the fourth quarter to shock Big 12 champion Baylor, while Ohio State took care of both Alabama and Oregon fairly easily en route to the CFP title. All told, the Big Ten was 3-0 in the CFP (meanwhile, the ACC and Big 12 were each 1-1, the Pac-12 was 1-2 and the almighty SEC was 0-3).
So what will the Big Ten do for an encore? What do these results mean for 2015? Who has the best shot of carrying the banner for the conference this time around?
We're glad you asked.
Purdue
1 of 14
It's been a long stretch of underachievement in West Lafayette, and despite the best efforts of the Boilermaker faithful, we're just not convinced the team is in for a short-term turnaround.
Head coach Darrell Hazell didn't have much to work with when he arrived at Purdue. Despite a cupboard full of only cobwebs, Hazell diligently set about the task of pushing forward with rebuilding this once-proud program. Unfortunately, college football conferences are usually divided into the "haves" and the "have nots," and the Boilers are decidedly among the Big Ten's "have nots."
Purdue doesn't have a reliable option at quarterback. Purdue doesn't have great depth at any skill position on either side of the football. Purdue doesn't have a wealth of fresh talent arriving on campus, as Hazell finished with the last-ranked 2015 class, according to 247Sports.com.
Can Hazell eventually get things back on the right track? Perhaps—if he's given the time. But a 4-20 overall record, which includes just a single conference victory in two seasons, might mean his days in West Lafayette may be numbered.
This also means Purdue has no realistic shot at the College Football Playoff following the 2015 season.
CFP Odds: 250-to-1
Illinois
2 of 14
Head coach Tim Beckman has been at the helm of the Illinois football program for three seasons now. In those three years, Beckman's Illini have won fewer games than Ohio State won last season alone. Beckman's 12-25 record will put him squarely on the hot seat in 2015, and the Illini will have to make measurable improvements for Beckman to keep his job.
No, this isn't to insinuate that Illinois must do the unthinkable and earn a spot in the playoff for Beckman to remain employed. In fact, we don't think Illinois even has to get all that close to the CFP this season—and that's probably a good thing.
Illinois has improved each season under Beckman, but the Illini are still in search of a winning record. While 2015 may prove to be the year Beckman gets his team over the hump, we're betting the "success" of 2015 will look more like seven wins than anything approaching CFP-worthy recognition.
CFP Odds: 200-to-1
Rutgers
3 of 14
All things considered, Rutgers had a successful 2014 season. Eight wins is nothing to sneeze at, and the Scarlet Knights did their new conference proud by rolling over North Carolina in the Quick Lane Bowl.
But wins and losses aren't the only thing that gets a team to the College Football Playoff. For that, the Knights will need to be Big Ten championship material, which isn't something that's in the realm of the feasible in 2015.
Rutgers was 3-5 against the Big Ten last season, beating a bad Michigan team, lowly Indiana and fellow conference newcomer Maryland. For the Knights to even have a shot at earning a playoff spot in 2015, they'll need to beat a pair of preseason top 10 teams in Ohio State and Michigan State.
Rutgers will also need to find a way to beat a quickly improving Penn State team while simultaneously knocking off the top two teams in the West Division—Nebraska and Wisconsin—that also appear on the 2015 schedule.
Rutgers isn't a bad football team, and there should be plenty to celebrate again this season. But the Scarlet Knights have perhaps the toughest conference schedule in the Big Ten this season, and that will keep them out of the playoff hunt.
CFP Odds: 200-to-1
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Indiana
4 of 14
Head coach Kevin Wilson probably came as close to the Big Ten football championship trophy during the Big Ten's media days as he's going to for quite a while. Indiana has historically been an also-ran in Big Ten football, and without a single recruit in 2015 above a 3-star, according to 247Sports.com, it's looking as if history is going to repeat itself in Bloomington.
Wilson has turned the Hoosiers from a 1-11 squad in 2011 to a perennial four- or five-game winner these days, but simply reaching a bowl game this season would be a major feat. After all, Indiana has just six conference wins in Wilson's four seasons as head coach.
With those kind of numbers, any serious talk of a shot at earning a CFP berth is likely to draw chuckles.
CFB Odds: 200-to-1
Northwestern
5 of 14
Northwestern has come a long way under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, but there's still plenty of work left to be done before we're ready to go out on a limb and call the Wildcats contenders for the Big Ten title.
That's what it would take for Northwestern—and likely any other Big Ten team—to find its way into the College Football Playoff: a Big Ten title. And although Northwestern avoids the behemoths of the East Division—Ohio State and Michigan State—on the 2015 schedule, the Purple Cats will still have to contend with dangerous Michigan and up-and-coming Penn State.
Add in some tough road games at Wisconsin and Nebraska along with a Week 1 visit from Stanford, and you can understand why we think Northwestern would likely have to play the 2015 season through 150 times before finding the kind of success that earns a team a berth in the CFP.
CFP Odds: 150-to-1
Maryland
6 of 14
Maryland, like Rutgers, can call its inaugural season in the Big Ten a relative success. Maryland finished 4-4 in conference play (good enough for third in the East Division) and earned a bowl berth in its first season in the conference.
Still, Maryland is going to have to overcome some loss of talent while dealing with a schedule that contains both Ohio State and Michigan State from the East, as well as a visit from West favorite Wisconsin.
Add in the annual nonconference grudge match against West Virginia, and it's easy to see why we're not too keen on the Terps' chances to engineer too many surprises in 2015.
CFP Odds: 100-to-1
Iowa
7 of 14
Head coach Kirk Ferentz is an institution at Iowa, just as Woody Hayes was at Ohio State or Bo Schembechler was at Michigan. The main difference between Ferentz and the others is the number of conference titles to their credit.
Ferentz has just two Big Ten titles in 16 seasons at Iowa and zero outright titles. In 21 seasons at Michigan, Schembechler had 13 Big Ten titles, and Hayes had 13 conference titles in 28 seasons.
The Hawkeyes aren't strangers to top-level talent, though. Iowa's annals are full of great names of both the collegiate and pro levels. The problem Ferentz seems to have is gathering more than one or two of those supremely talented players on the roster at any given time.
With the loss of one of those amazing players in Brandon Scherff combined with another lackluster recruiting class, we have legitimate concerns about Iowa's chances in 2015.
Still, we've turned a corner in terms of teams with at least conceivable shots at winning a Big Ten title this season. While Iowa's still a long shot, the Hawkeyes aren't anywhere near as much of a long shot as the teams we've seen thus far.
CFP Odds: 65-to-1
Minnesota
8 of 14
Head coach Jerry Kill is probably used to being the underdog. During his tenure at Division II Saginaw Valley State, his program seemed to be constantly playing catch-up to Brian Kelly at rival Grand Valley State. At FCS Southern Illinois, the Salukis would rise to the top of the conference, only to be perennially knocked out of the playoffs by mostly established and renowned FCS opponents from the East.
Now at Minnesota, the Gophers are often overlooked in favor of teams such as Wisconsin or Nebraska, but we think Kill has something special brewing in Minneapolis.
Minnesota has improved every single season under Kill, starting at 3-9 in 2011 and improving to 8-5 in 2014. Last season also saw Minnesota finish with its best conference mark under Kill at 5-3—a mark Minnesota hadn't seen since 2003 (and hasn't bested since 1973's 6-2 mark).
Kill's hallmark has been to do more with less. It's not a guaranteed recipe for success, but every now and again it has some great moments. Last season, Minnesota entered November with a real shot at a West Division title. The 2015 schedule shapes up a little differently, however, and that might be the Gophers' undoing this fall.
While we're still expecting Minnesota to win the games it should against Purdue, Illinois and a pair of MAC teams, the Gophers face Nebraska in mid-October, Michigan two weeks later, travel to Ohio State the week after that and finish the season at home against Wisconsin.
We're not saying that mountain can't be climbed, but we'll be surprised if it is—at least this season.
CFP Odds: 50-to-1
Michigan
9 of 14
There are only two words that anyone in Ann Arbor—or many other places around the Great Lakes State—can utter these days: Jim Harbaugh.
Yes, the eternally hopeful and optimistic Wolverines fans finally have something legitimately instilling optimism this season, and the only thing left to do is to find out if Year 1 of the Harbaugh era will live up to expectations.
Spoiler alert: It won't.
How can we be so sure Michigan will miss the mark this season? It's simple, really: The excitement is so high in Ann Arbor that there's no possible way for Harbaugh to live up to expectations right away.
Before the Michigan faithful begin their opprobrious rantings, let's clarify: Michigan will be better than last season. Not just "better," but noticeably better. What's more, it's hard to not buy in to the hype that Harbaugh is likely the missing ingredient Michigan needs to restore the program to its once lofty perch not only atop the Big Ten, but atop the nation at large.
Yes, the Wolverines will be a national championship contender—just not in 2015.
The Wolverines are simply starting from too far back in the pack to catch up in one giant leap. But given a few years, we're confident Harbaugh will have the Maize and Blue right back where the Wolverines are accustomed to being: aggravating Michigan State fans and forcing Ohio State fans into an apoplectic stupor.
CFP Odds: 75-to-2
Penn State
10 of 14
We went around and around trying to determine which team—Michigan or Penn State—would show up on our list in the No. 5 slot. In the end, the teams were so close that the odds calculate out to be less than two percentage points apart.
So why did we go with Penn State instead of UM? In the end, it boiled down to James Franklin versus Jim Harbaugh and where each head coach has their program at this moment. No matter how well you think the Harbaugh years will turn out at Michigan, the simple fact is Franklin has a year's jump on the rebuilding of the program.
Penn State is starting from a much more favorable position this season, having already returned to a bowl game (and won), while we've yet to see the on-field product Harbaugh has at his disposal.
Penn State avoids potential traps like Michigan's season opener at Utah or against a potentially dangerous BYU team in Week 4. Penn State also faces Illinois and Northwestern in cross-division games in 2015 and gets Michigan at Beaver Stadium.
We're still not too terribly high on Penn State's overall chances, mind you, as the Nittany Lions have to face Michigan State and Ohio State both on the road.
CFP Odds: 25-to-1
Nebraska
11 of 14
A new era for Nebraska football begins as head coach Mike Riley takes the reins after the firing of perennial four-loss Bo Pelini.
A fresh beginning may be just what the Huskers need to get over the Big Ten hump. Riley won't be dealing with any hangover from Nebraska's Big 12 days, and he seems ready and able to do whatever is necessary to win in the Big Ten.
Whether or not he can do that in his first year is another story.
It always takes some time for a new coach's system to sink in, especially when that coach comes from outside of the system. Riley has never been a part of the Nebraska system until now, and while we suspect he'll eventually put his own winning mark on things in Lincoln, it's a bit of a stretch to believe he'll have the Huskers ready to demolish the rest of the conference without going through a few growing pains.
CFP Odds: 12-to-1
Wisconsin
12 of 14
Like Nebraska, Wisconsin is also entering a new era with head coach Paul Chryst taking over after Gary Andersen's abrupt departure. Unlike Nebraska, however, Chryst isn't new to his program.
Chryst spent the 2002 season as the tight ends coach before returning in 2005 as the co-offensive coordinator under Barry Alvarez. Chryst stayed on as offensive coordinator under Bret Bielema before taking over as head coach at Pittsburgh in 2012. Chryst was 19-19 in his three seasons at Pitt.
Yes, the Badgers are going to have to adjust to Chryst's coaching style, but don't expect the major transition normally associated with head coaching changes. Wisconsin is going to play Wisconsin football in 2015, and Badgers fans will find the on-field product comfortable and familiar.
That familiar brand of Wisconsin football also means plenty of winning.
Unfortunately for Wisconsin, the season will kick off with perhaps the toughest test of any team in the nation. The Badgers will face off against Alabama on Sept. 5 in Arlington, Texas. A loss in that game could be an early albatross tossed around the Badgers' neck.
A win, however, would catapult the Badgers so far up in the polls that it would be hard not to like their chances moving forward.
CFP Odds: 8-to-1
Michigan State
13 of 14
There's good reason most people are picking Ohio State to repeat as Big Ten and even national champions. But there's another extraordinarily talented team in the Big Ten that is accustomed to not getting as much early notice from the press and pundits. Don't worry: Michigan State seems to love the underdog role, according to Detroit News' John Niyo.
Those who overlook MSU, however, do so at their own peril. The Spartans have one of the nations best but overlooked quarterbacks in Connor Cook, and the roster is full of impressive talent. MSU is fresh off of its win over Big 12 co-champion Baylor in the Cotton Bowl Classic, and even the coaches have rewarded Sparty with a preseason No. 6 ranking for 2015.
Some, including Paul Myerberg of USA Today, are wondering aloud if MSU is really the Big Ten's best team this season.
Time will tell if Michigan State can live up to the lofty preseason expectations, and big conference showdowns against Michigan, Nebraska and Ohio State—all on the road—will surely test the Spartans' mettle.
Oh, and did we mention that big Week 2 game against Oregon in East Lansing?
If the Spartans can emerge from the East Division in 2015, at least we know they'll be battle-tested.
CFP Odds: 5-to-2
Ohio State
14 of 14
Looking at the 2015 schedule for Ohio State, there are some definite possible pitfalls. Week 1 at Virginia Tech (remember 2014) looms large, especially in the wake of announced suspensions for the Buckeyes.
There's also the one-two punch at the end of the season with the two schools from "up north" coming in successive weeks. Michigan State visits Columbus on Nov. 21, while the Buckeyes travel to Ann Arbor for their traditional season-ending slugfest with Michigan on Nov. 28.
Still, with what Ohio State was able to accomplish last season with a bunch of young, relatively inexperienced players, you have to like the Buckeyes' chances in 2015 with essentially the same roster—now much more matured.
Add in their status as defending champions, and it's almost impossible to envision a conference championship-winning Buckeyes team not earning another berth in the College Football Playoff.
CFP Odds: 3-to-2
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
