Danny Garcia vs. Paulie Malignaggi: Preview and Prediction for Welterweight Bout
Saturday night in Brooklyn, New York, lineal light welterweight champion Danny Garcia makes his welterweight debut against former champion Paulie Malignaggi. The popular Malignaggi will be fighting in his home borough.
A couple of years ago, Garcia was one of the hottest fighters in the sport. But now he's looking to shoulder his way into the crowded welterweight division.
Malignaggi is a crafty veteran who is attempting to derail Garcia's move to 147 pounds.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Danny Garcia | Paulie Malignaggi |
| Record: | 30-0, 17 KOs | 33-6, 7 KOs |
| Height: | 5'8.5" | 5'8" |
| Reach: | 68.5" | 70" |
| Weight: | 147 pounds | 147 pounds |
| Age: | 27 | 34 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Philadelphia | Brooklyn, New York |
| Rounds: | 178 | 314 |
Malignaggi is a half-inch shorter in this fight, but he has more than an inch advantage in reach and will look to make the most of it against Garcia.
The Magic Man's knockout percentage is anemic, while Garcia's is above 50 percent, with some high-profile stoppages.
Malignaggi is fighting in his home town, but Garcia has drawn big crowds for himself in Brooklyn.
Main Storylines
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Danny Garcia emerged as a red-hot fighter in 2012 and 2013. In 2012, he beat Erik Morales twice, with the second win coming by way of a sensational knockout. In between his fights with Morales, he stunned Amir Khan by Round 4 TKO to become the lineal and unified champion at 140 pounds.
In 2013, he beat both Zab Judah and Lucas Matthysse in convincing fashion.
He remains undefeated as he prepares to make his welterweight debut. But his April 2014 victory over Mauricio Herrera was a hotly debated majority decision, as was his last win over Lamont Peterson last April.
It's fair to say that Garcia won both of those fights, although in the case of Peterson, one could disagree. And after facing Peterson, Garcia's face certainly didn't look like he had won.
In August 2014, he fought unranked lightweight Rod Salka in a matchup that was a personal insult to every single fan who subscribes to Showtime purely for the sweet science.
Even as Garcia prepares to move up in weight, there's a perception that he's taking the easy way out in facing Malignaggi. The 34-year-old veteran has been inactive for more than a year since getting blitzed by Shawn Porter in April 2014 by Round 4 TKO.
Malignaggi is a crafty and experienced former titleholder. In 39 fights, he's stopped just seven opponents.
Malignaggi might be able to outhustle and out-think Garcia in spots and make the fight a difficult one for him, but it's unlikely that he'll manage to put Garcia in a truly perilous spot at any point.
Garcia's reputation won't take any major bumps as a result of winning this fight. Instead, this is about protecting his record while he makes a soft debut against a faded but notable name in a new division.
Strengths
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Garcia
Garcia does not necessarily wow in any one area, but he is impressive at almost everything. He can think well during a fight and has solid technical skills.
He's not a gunslinger, but his left hook is a hand grenade. Garcia had dramatic, fight-ending power at his previous weight class, as well as the accuracy and punch selection to deliver it in big fights.
Malignaggi
Malignaggi has a sharp boxing brain and is a skilled, tactical fighter. He can maintain a quick, harrying pace and uses movement and a good jab to control the pace of fights.
He was hammered in his last fight, but traditionally, he's had solid whiskers. He has fought courageous, competitive rounds with a busted cheekbone.
Weaknesses
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Garcia
Garcia can be vulnerable to opponents who use movement well to disrupt his rhythm. It happened against Herrera in 2014 and Peterson again this past April.
Garcia held on to win those fights, but he definitely struggled at times in both bouts.
Malignaggi
Malignaggi lacks the kind of power that forces opponents to fear him, and that always creates tactical problems for a prizefighter. It means he has to battle hard to capture every single round.
It also puts him at a definite disadvantage against an opponent such as Garcia, who has a history of ending big fights in a hurry with his lead hook.
Danny Garcia Will Win If...
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Garcia needs to be prepared to deal with Malignaggi's movement better than he did against Herrera and better than he did in the second half of his fight with Peterson. His best way to do that will be with intelligent pressure and aggression.
Garcia should look to beat Malignaggi to the draw with his own jab and then be ready to throw his follow-up punch while also stepping to maintain distance and range with the Brooklyn native.
Garcia has to be prepared to reset again and again against Malignaggi in order to quickly re-establish good position for launching an attack.
He will need to let his punches go early, in part so he can start to get a read on how Malignaggi will react to them. He'll want to stay patient if his first attempts at a big punch miss and remain confident that he'll pull the trigger at the right moment eventually.
Malignaggi Will Win If...
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To win this fight, Malignaggi is going to want to take some notes from what Herrera did against Garcia in April 2014. Herrera used a busy jab and steady, hard-to-adjust-to movement to stay away from most of Garcia's power punches while consistently winning his share of the exchanges.
That's the sort of fight Malignaggi is adept at fighting. Against Garcia, he's going to need to remain to the outside of Garcia's lead left hand in order to deny the undefeated star a chance to unleash his dangerous lead hook.
By moving to his right, in back of a steady jab, Malignaggi should get himself at a dominant angle to launch a quick, multi-punch flurry without the risk of getting stung by a counter.
There's little room for error in Malignaggi's game plan. If Garcia catches up to him with even one left hook, it could turn the tide quickly toward defeat for the Magic Man.
Prediction
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Malignaggi is nearing the end of a nice boxing career and has already launched a successful transition into the broadcast booth. Expect him to make a gutsy stand against the young, undefeated Garcia.
But don't expect him to win. Ultimately, this fight will share some similarities with Malignaggi's split-decision loss to Adrien Broner, without being quite as close.
Malignaggi will carry some rounds, and the fight should be entertaining and competitive, if not high drama. But Garcia's heavier punches will make the difference in too many rounds, and he'll win seven or eight on all three judging cards.
There are always a bunch of major fights waiting to happen at welterweight, and Garcia should factor in something big for 2016. He's probably coming to the division too late to get a shot at Floyd Mayweather Jr., but he could make compelling fights against opponents such as Shawn Porter, Keith Thurman and Marcos Maidana.
A rematch with Lucas Matthysse or Amir Khan would also be highly anticipated.
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