College Football Playoff Bracket Projections and Predictions after Week 13

In a sport beloved for its chaos, Week 13 did little to disrupt the College Football Playoff projections with just two weekends to play.

And, in many cases, only one final contest.

Across all four power conferences, zero teams have clinched a spot in the league championship game. Those matchups will be determined based on what happens in an action-filled Week 14—and likely some tiebreakers, too.

The projections are based primarily on the latest B/R Top 25, along with some personal views regarding what may happen in conference championships.

Key Results in Week 13

Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Noah Whittington

Oregon 42, USC 27

Michigan has a final chance at causing Big Ten mayhem, but USC whiffed on its opportunity. Had the Trojans won at Oregon, the CFP selection committee would have faced an even greater mess at the edge of the projected bracket. Instead, the Ducks improved to 10-1 and eliminated USC from contention.

Utah 51, Kansas State 47
BYU 26, Cincinnati 14

Is your favorite team sitting on the wrong side of the CFP bubble? Well, the Big 12 refused to provide any favors—and Utah broke a few upset-needing hearts in the process. Utah clawed out of a late 12-point hole to upend Kansas State, and BYU put together a clutch drive to ice a win at Cincy.

Pitt 42, Georgia Tech 28

In the ACC, meanwhile, a little chaos emerged. Pitt jumped out to a 28-point lead and—despite struggling on offense in the second half—pulled off a conference-shaking upset at Georgia Tech. Pitt jumped to 6-1 this season in freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel's seven starts.

B/R's Top 25 After Week 13

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

John Mateer

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Georgia
5. Oregon
6. Texas Tech
7. Ole Miss
8. Oklahoma
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Vanderbilt
14. Utah
15. Michigan
16. Virginia
17. USC
18. Texas
19. Tennessee
20. North Texas
21. James Madison
22. SMU
23. Pitt
24. Tulane
25. Georgia Tech

Post-Week 13 CFP Picture

Maria Lysaker/Getty Images

Marcel Reed

Bracket Format

Automatic bids: The projected five highest-ranked conference champions.

Ohio State (Big Ten)

Texas A&M (SEC)

Texas Tech (Big 12)

SMU (ACC)

North Texas (American)

At-large bids: The projected next seven highest-ranked teams remaining.

Indiana

Georgia

Oregon

Ole Miss

Oklahoma

Notre Dame

Alabama

Rankings are based primarily on latest B/R Top 25 plus personal views.

The ACC's Disaster Scenario Lives

Lance King/Getty Images

Darian Mensah

In the words of a pretty famous football fan: Don't say I didn't warn you.

Shortly after the 2018 regular season ended, I shared my disdain about the idea of an expanded CFP introducing automatic qualifiers. I remind you of this—not simply due to my ego, but—because the worst-case scenario in that frustration is a distinct possibility for the ACC in 2025.

Winning a conference title? Good. Thanks to realignment, however, the Power Four leagues are overcrowded and unbalanced.

And it's the long version of saying Duke, currently 6-5, might win the ACC.

Sure, the following is just one possibility. Yet if Miami beats Pitt, Duke topples Wake Forest and Cal upsets SMU—all plausible results—Duke will reach the ACC Championship Game. The opponent could be Virginia. I know UVA already won at Duke, but anything can happen in one-game samples.

Fast-forward this hypothetical, and you have 8-5 Duke, an ACC champion, now being compared to the other league winners. We're confident the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC would all be comfortably ahead.

The main problem is the Group of Five.

Earlier this season, you may recall, Tulane beat Duke—which also has a loss to UConn, something far less acceptable in football than basketball. Tulane is currently a strong contender to make the American title game. James Madison is 10-1 and poised to host the Sun Belt Championship Game.

Would an 8-5 Duke team be ranked ahead of Tulane and JMU? Doubt it.

I'm not saying that's going to happen. I'm not predicting it, either. But I am saying the ACC is not guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Impact Games in Week 14

Jason Mowry/Getty Images

Julian Sayin

American

Though it will be overshadowed by the NFL on Thanksgiving Day, keep an eye on Navy's trip to Memphis. Navy is among the trio of programs in the American with one conference loss. The others are North Texas (vs. Temple) and Tulane (vs. Charlotte), which are both considerable favorites in their contests.

ACC

Saturday's slate begins with Miami at Pitt in the early window. The winner will put pressure on Virginia (vs. Virginia Tech) and SMU (at Cal) to avoid an upset loss in the evening. If two or more of Pitt, UVA and SMU lose, Duke (vs. Wake Forest) will influence which programs head to the ACC Championship Game.

Big Ten

Indiana heads to Purdue on Friday with a chance to lock up a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. Then on Saturday—even beyond the rivalry aspect—Ohio State's trip to Michigan is key because it reframes the rest of the day. If OSU wins, it'll be IU vs. Ohio State in Indianapolis. If Michigan wins, that opens the door for Oregon (vs. Washington) to sneak in. But if Oregon falls, U-M is in.

Big 12

The simple version is Texas Tech (at West Virginia) and BYU (vs. UCF) both win, setting up a straightforward Big 12 Championship Game. But if either lose, one of Utah (at Kansas, rooting for WVU) or Arizona State (vs. Arizona, rooting for UCF) will be best positioned to slide in—provided Utah and/or ASU win on Friday.

SEC

Texas A&M and Alabama hold clean paths to the SEC Championship Game, though the latter is due to a tiebreaker. The league's lone unbeaten is A&M, which is set to play rival Texas on Friday. Then on Saturday, Bama needs to beat Auburn and would win any tiebreaker over Georgia or Ole Miss. The wild card is how losses from A&M and Bama would save Ole Miss (at Mississippi State).