Complete Preview, Prediction for Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway
I dare you—double dare you, in fact—to find a race or any major sporting event in the U.S. with a longer name than Sunday’s Crown Royal Presents the Jeff Kyle 400 at the Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
For those of you who needed to either break out a calculator or use your fingers and toes, that’s 14 words (18 words if you add “NASCAR Sprint Cup race” somewhere in the mix).
But name length aside, Sunday’s race—which we will refer to as the Brickyard 400 for brevity and simplicity sake—is one of the biggest on the annual Sprint Cup schedule.
It’s held at the legendary Indianapolis Motor Speedway, which celebrates its 22nd year of playing host to the boys and girls of NASCAR.
IMS and stock cars don’t necessarily make a great mix, but there have been some fairly exciting races in the 400’s history, particularly last season’s race when Jeff Gordon won for a record fifth time.
Gordon is hoping to extend that mark to six—which would be his first triumph of the season and also likely lock him into a berth in the upcoming Chase for the Sprint Cup.
Let’s see what to expect in one of NASCAR’s biggest races of the year.
By the Numbers: Indianapolis Motor Speedway
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Brickyard 400
Place: Indianapolis Motor Speedway
Date: Sunday, July 26
Time: 3:30 p.m. (ET)
TV: NBCSN, 2 p.m. (ET)
Radio: Indianapolis Motor Speedway Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 160 laps, 400 miles (2.5-mile oval)
Defending winner: Jeff Gordon
Youngest winner: Jeff Gordon on Aug. 6, 1994 (23 years, two days)
Oldest winner: Bill Elliott on Aug. 4, 2002 (46 years, nine months, 27 days)
Youngest pole winner: Reed Sorenson on July 29, 2007 (21 years, five months, 24 days)
Oldest pole winner: Mark Martin on July 26, 2009 (50 years, six months, 17 days)
Most wins: Jeff Gordon (five)
Most poles: Jeff Gordon (three)
Most top-fives: Jeff Gordon (12)
Most top-10s: Jeff Gordon (17)
Lead lap finishes: Jeff Gordon (19)
Laps completed: Bobby Labonte (3,274)
Laps led: Jeff Gordon (1,371)
Most race starts at Indianapolis: Jeff Gordon and Bobby Labonte (21 each)
Most laps led: 528 (Jeff Gordon)
Race record: Bobby Labonte, 155.912 mph (Aug. 5, 2000)
Qualifying record: Kevin Harvick, 188.889 mph (July 25, 2014)
Best average start: Jeff Gordon and David Green (both 6.000)
Best average finish: Jeff Gordon (8.381)
Track notes
—Total number of races at Indianapolis to date: 21
—Total number of different pole winners in Indy history: 17
—Races won from pole: Three
—Last race won from pole: Ryan Newman (July 28, 2013)
—Number of race winners at Indy: 12
—DNFs (most): Terry Labonte and Mike Skinner (five each)
—DNFs (least): Bill Elliott and Tony Stewart (zero in 16 starts each)
Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations
Key Storylines
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The last go-round at the Brickyard for Jeff Gordon
This is the 22nd and final Brickyard 400 for Jeff Gordon, the all-time winningest NASCAR driver at Indianapolis. Can he finally get out of his season-long winless slump and lay the foundation for a final championship run with a win Sunday?
If there’s any place Gordon should win at, it’s Indy. And I don’t want to even think of the alternative: If he fails to win there, might he not win a race at all the rest of the way? I shudder to think of the possibility.
Can the Kyle Busch express roll on?
After winning three of the last four races, can Kyle Busch keep his forward momentum going, well, forward? He’s just 58 points out of 30th place, the cutoff spot he needs to reach by Richmond if he’s to earn one of the 16 berths in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Keep your eyes on the No. 18, because if he continues his winning ways, this could be history in the making—and you don’t want to miss a second of it.
Jimmie Johnson’s renewed Indy motivation
Remember last year’s Brickyard 400? So much media attention was focused on Jimmie Johnson and how so many reporters predicted he would break the tie for most wins at Indy (at the time, that number being four each). Very few, it seemed, predicted it would be Gordon who would get to five wins at Indy first. Could the roles be reversed in Sunday’s race? A dogfight between Johnson and Gordon could be a battle for the ages.
Sooner or later, Tony Stewart will win
How much longer can Tony Stewart endure this horrible season? If there’s any place to snap him out of the season-long performance funk, it’s definitely Indianapolis Motor Speedway, where he has won the Brickyard 400 twice in his career. If Stewart can win Sunday, it not only would likely guarantee him a berth in the Chase, it could be the kickoff for what has the potential to be one of the greatest comebacks in NASCAR history. It would be on par with how the late Alan Kulwicki rallied back to win in 1992, or how Johnson rallied back to win the first of five consecutive championships in 2006.
Can Danica Patrick channel her old self?
Indianapolis Motor Speedway has long been one of Danica Patrick’s best race tracks. Sure, she’s no longer in the IndyCar Series, but Indy holds a special place in her heart, and her in Indy’s heart, as well. While it would be a real long shot, I learned a long time ago to never say never. Think of how the sport could change virtually overnight—and for the better—if Patrick pulls off an upset win at the most famous racetrack in the world.
Drivers to Watch
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Kevin Harvick
Harvick continues to hold serve on the Sprint Cup point standings. But another win or two would go a long way toward significantly helping Harvick’s seeding in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Remember, Jimmie Johnson has four wins. If the Chase were to start today, JJ would be the points leader when the rankings are revised after the final pre-Chase qualifying race at Richmond. Harvick needs to do everything in his power to prevent Johnson from doing that. And if not Johnson, Harvick needs to keep Kyle Busch from getting the top spot, as well.
Martin Truex Jr.
It has been a rough last month for Truex, who saw himself drop from a lengthy stay in second place for several weeks to fifth place. While Truex has had his mulligan, it’s now time for him to get back to the way he was in the first half of the season. Another win before the Chase would help the confidence of the one-car team and its driver, making them realize they have the potential to ride their one-car train all the way to the championship. But they have to shake off the poor performances of late and get back to finishing in the top five on a much more consistent basis.
Joey Logano
Like a hitchhiker, Logano just keeps hanging around near the top of the Sprint Cup standings, seemingly waiting for a big ride that will deliver another win and a potential jump upward in the rankings. To date, Logano has just one win, the season-opening Daytona 500. Wouldn’t it be something if he could finally earn his second win of the season at arguably the second-biggest race of the year after Daytona.
Brad Keselowski
Joey Logano and teammate Brad Keselowski have been like fraternal twins this season. What one does, the other seems to do. In other words, Logano has just one win, and so does his teammate. Both are close to the top of the standings, but neither is having the kind of season it respectively had last season, when Keselowski led the Sprint Cup Series with six wins and Logano was right behind with five by season’s end. Plus, Logano made it all the way to the season-ending race and had a chance to win the championship, but a late mistake in the pits cost him a shot at winning it all.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has won six times at Talladega and four times at Daytona (including two wins in the Daytona 500), but he’s never won the Brickyard 400. Sure, it’s not a restrictor plate race like the other two venues, but Indy has prestige and tradition that almost equals a win at ‘Tona and ‘Dega. Could Junior finally win at Indy this Sunday? Anything is possible, but his overall track record at the difficult 2.5-mile oval is mediocre, at best. He’ll have to do a lot more to try to improve his position than just show up on race morning.
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Favorites
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Kyle Busch
How can you not pick a guy who has won the last two Sprint Cup races and three of the last four? Simply put, you can’t. The younger Busch brother is on a mission to keep winning and continue his run to crack the top 30. Busch has never won a Daytona 500, nor a Brickyard 400. He could scratch off one of the biggest races on his bucket list with a win Sunday.
Jeff Gordon
There’s a sentimental factor at play Sunday when Gordon makes his final Brickyard 400 appearance. It’s especially significant that the four-time champion could extend his own historic record at Indianapolis by winning a sixth Brickyard 400. In doing so, it would take his closest rival at Indy, Jimmie Johnson, at least two more years to catch Gordon’s mark, and three more years to pass it. Sorry, JJ fans, but I don’t see that happening anytime soon.
Denny Hamlin
This is my wild card. Hamlin has never won at Indy, either, but he’s had some excellent runs that typically have been spoiled by late-race incidents, pit mistakes or poor strategies. Because Indy is a fairly flat track, it’s the type that works to Hamlin’s strengths. Plus, it’s also a place where you can beat and bang with impunity—and that could be the thing Hamlin needs to finally win a big race in his career.
Kasey Kahne
Just when you think Kasey is down for the count, he picks himself off the canvas and roars right back like vintage Muhammad Ali. Kahne has had some decent runs at Indianapolis but has yet to grace Victory Lane there. It’s time for him to win big at Indy and secure his spot in the Chase, period, end of story.
Tony Stewart
Yes, I realize Stewart is in the midst of his worst season ever. But remember, this is Indianapolis Motor Speedway and he’s Tony Stewart, three-time Sprint Cup champion and two-time Brickyard 400 winner. And yes, I admit this is a sentimental pick, but so what? Stewart deserves some optimism in a season that has been nothing but pessimistic performances. And if he wins, you couldn’t write a better feel-good story.
Dark-Horse Pick: Carl Edwards
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While I’m still waiting for Edwards to deliver on his preseason vow of winning 10 races and the Sprint Cup championship in 2015, I definitely like what I’ve seen from him and the overall resurgence from Joe Gibbs Racing over the last few weeks.
Between Kentucky and New Hampshire, this is a team that has definitely found something and is, as the saying goes, “getting while the getting’s good.”
Edwards is yet another in a long list of Sprint Cup drivers who hasn’t been able to conquer IMS.
Sunday might be the day that changes for Edwards.
And if not for him, perhaps for one of his teammates like Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin or Matt Kenseth.
And the Winner Is: Kevin Harvick
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I really, really wanted to go with my heart and pick Jeff Gordon to win Sunday’s race.
The storyline is just perfect, between the fact it’s his last Brickyard and he has the chance to distance himself as the all-time winner there.
But I just think former Brickyard winner Kevin Harvick will once again get on a big run over the next few weeks heading toward the final Chase qualifying race at Richmond—and he’ll kick it off at Indy.
While nothing would make me happier than to see the No. 24 in Victory Lane on Sunday and seeing Gordon kissing the bricks one last time, he’ll have to get by Harvick—which is going to be easier said than done, both literally and figuratively.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski.
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