2025 Bowl Predictions and Updated Playoff Bracket Projections After Week 13 Rankings

The College Football Playoff (CFP) committee released its second set of official rankings on Tuesday evening. As one might expect, there were no significant surprises at the top.

The Ohio State Buckeyes rolled over Purdue on Saturday, leaving them at the top of the list and on course for the playoff's No. 1 seed. Alabama and Texas A&M handled LSU and Missouri, respectively, leaving them on a collision course for the SEC title game.

The closest we came to an landscape-shifting upset in Week 11 was in Indiana's narrow win over Penn State. The Hoosiers easily could have lost that game if not for a sensational touchdown grab by Omar Cooper Jr.

We did see a few changes to the top 25 and the playoff field, though, which means it's time for some updated projections.

Updated CFP Rankings

Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Ohio State S Caleb Downs

1. Ohio State

2. Indiana

3. Texas A&M

4. Alabama

5. Georgia

6. Texas Tech

7. Mississippi

8. Oregon

9. Notre Dame

10. Texas

11. Oklahoma

12. BYU

13. Utah

14. Vanderbilt

15. Miami

16. Georgia Tech

17. USC

18. Michigan

19. Virginia

20. Louisville

21. Iowa

22. Pittsburgh

23. Tennessee

24. USF

25. Cincinnati

Week 11 Brought Some Playoff Clarity

John E. Moore III/Getty Images

Texas Tech LB Ben Roberts

As previously mentioned, we didn't see any of the top seeds lose outright. Indiana's close call against the Nittany Lions didn't ultimately ruffle any proverbial feathers either—though it came close.

"It was one of our longer discussions in our meetings," CFP committee chair Mack Rhoades said during Tuesday's rankings release show (h/t ESPN's Mark Schlabach).

Saturday's clash between BYU and Texas Tech did change a few things in the rankings order. Texas Tech's 29-7 victory was dominant enough that the committee opted to move the Raider Raiders ahead of Mississippi. The committee also thinks highly enough of Texas Tech that BYU only fell five spots and remains in the playoff picture.

Notre Dame and Texas each moved up a spot, even though Texas was inactive in Week 11. Oklahoma was also off last week and moved up a spot to make room for BYU at No. 12.

The Irish handled Navy at Home.

With games like South Florida at Navy, Notre Dame at Pitt, Oklahoma at Alabama, and Texas at Georgia on next week's docket, Week 12 could bring a much bigger shakeup to the CFP rankings.

Updated CFP Bowl Projections

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Alabama QB Ty Simpson

First Round

12. South Florida at 5. Georgia

11. Georgia Tech at 6. Mississippi

10. Vanderbilt at 7. Texas Tech

9. Notre Dame at 8. Oregon

Quarterfinals

Cotton Bowl

7. Texas Tech vs. 2. Indiana

Orange Bowl

5. Georgia vs. 4. Alabama

Rose Bowl

9. Notre Dame vs. 1. Ohio State

Sugar Bowl

6. Mississippi vs. 3. Texas A&M

Semifinals

Fiesta Bowl

5. Georgia vs. 1. Ohio State

Peach Bowl

3. Texas A&M vs. 2. Indiana

Yes, there's a good chance that Ohio State and Indiana will face off in the Big Ten title game while Texas A&M and Alabama battle in the SEC Championship Game. There's also a reasonable chance that these four powerhouses will remain top seeds after all the non-bowls are complete.

This year's introduction of straight seeding means that the top four spots won't automatically go to conference champions.

The entire field cannot stay the same, though. Since the top five conference champions are guaranteed playoff berths, the 11th and 12th seeds will probably be bumped.

For now, we'll predict that Georgia Tech stays atop the ACC and sneaks in, though Miami, Virginia or Pitt could also be penciled into the bracket.

With games against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Miami left on its schedule, Pitt is going to play a massive role in the CFP chase.

Another playoff slot appears likely to go to either American leader South Florida or Sun Belt leader James Madison.

The spots between the top six and the last two are where things could get truly interesting. Mississippi, Notre Dame and Oregon are likely to be in, but only if they avoid another loss. The same is true for Texans, though the Longhorns' remaining schedule is tough.

Texas faced Georgia this week before battling Arkansas and finishing with Texas A&M. A three-loss Longhorns team might stay in the bracket simply because Texas is a team the committee will want in the CFP. However, two more losses—or even a single blowout loss—could make keeping Texas in difficult to justify.

A team like Vanderbilt could then sneak into the party as a two-loss team.