Updated Bowl Projections and 2025 CFP Bracket Predictions for Week 12
The 2025-26 College Football Playoff field is beginning to come into focus. While the CFP committee won't update its latest rankings until Tuesday evening, the AP poll dropped on Sunday and should give fans an idea of what to expect.
Week 11 didn't feature any major surprises at the top, but we did see some shuffling. We'll see more in the coming weeks, and you can bet that the playoff field will look quite a bit different in December than it does right now.
Let's take a final look at what happened in Week 11 and what lies ahead before the next round of CFP rankings drop.
Notable Week 11 Results
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As previously mentioned, we didn't see any major surprises at the top. Ohio State cruised past Purdue, Alabama thumped LSU, Texas A&M beat Missouri and Indiana narrowly outlasted Penn State.
The Hoosier came the closest to being upset, managing to stay unbeaten through an unbelievable grab by Omar Cooper Jr.
While the top four teams didn't change, Indiana did see a reduction in first-place votes, from 11 to six.
Notre Dame moved up a spot after handling Navy in a 49-10 contest, while BYU fell a mere four spots following a 29-7 loss to Texas Tech.
Texas moved into the top 10 despite being inactive in Week 11. Losses by BYU and Virginia helped clear the Longhorns' path to the playoff. Losses by Virginia and Louisville also helped give Georgia Tech a road to the CFB—possibly an easier one than Texas'.
Georgia Tech only moved from No. 16 to No. 14, but a win on November 28 against No. 5 Georgia would probably be enough to get the Yellow Jackets in if they don't lose again before then.
Texas has both Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M left on its schedule.
James Madison and South Florida also entered the top 25 this week. One of them could conceivably wind up with this year's G5 berth.
Updated AP Top 25
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1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Mississippi
7. Oregon
8. Texas Tech
9. Notre Dame
10. Texas
11. Oklahoma
12. BYU
13. Vanderbilt
14. Georgia Tech
15. Utah
16. Miami
17. USC
18. Michigan
19. Louisville
20. Virginia
21. Tennessee
22. Cincinnati
23. Pittsburgh
24. James Madison
25. South Florida
Updated CFP Bowl and Bracket Predictions
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First Round
12. South Florida at 5. Georgia
11. Georgia Tech at 6. Mississippi
10. Vanderbilt at 7. Texas Tech
9. Notre Dame at 8. Oregon
Quarterfinals
Cotton Bowl
7. Texas Tech vs. 2. Indiana
Orange Bowl
5. Georgia vs. 4. Alabama
Rose Bowl
9. Notre Dame vs. 1. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl
6. Mississippi vs. 3. Texas A&M
Semifinals
Fiesta Bowl
5. Georgia vs. 1. Ohio State
Peach Bowl
3. Texas A&M vs. 2. Indiana
On big change to this year's CFP format is the introduction of straight seeding at the top. The top five conference champions will still receive automatic bids, but the top four seeds won't automatically go to conference champions.
That's why Indiana could still be ranked No. 2 if it knocks off Wisconsin and Purdue only to fall to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Similarly, Alabama could earn a bye by beating Oklahoma, Eastern Illinois and Auburn before losing to Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game.
In other words, the path for the top four teams in the country is pretty simple: Remain undefeated before the conference title game and then at least keep that one close. While a team could sneak into the top four if there's a blowout loss in one of the conference championship games, there's practically no way that a one-loss A&M team or a two-loss Alabama team will fall out of the playoff entirely.
For the rest of the field, though, things could be a little trickier.
Georgia won't reach the SEC title game, even if the Aggies go undefeated the rest of the way, but Alabama avoids another loss—the Crimson Tide handed the Bulldogs their only loss thus far. That could keep Georgia out of the top four, though it's likely to retain a high seed.
Mississippi should earn an at-large bid by holding off Florida and Mississippi State, while Texas Tech can get in as the Big 12 champion. Notre Dame and Oregon should both be in if they remain undefeated the rest of the way.
Vanderbilt will need to knock off Kentucky and 21st-ranked Tennessee, but it could sneak into the dance. Georgia Tech and South Florida will be in play if they win the ACC and American conferences, respectively.
A lot can happen over the final few week of the season, of course. Upsets happen—we nearly saw one at Beaver Stadium on Saturday—and a big one could throw the entire field into chaos.
Upcoming games like the Texas A&M and Texas clash or the Ohio State-Michigan game will be critical.
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