Sergey Kovalev vs. Nadjib Mohammedi: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight
Saturday night in Las Vegas at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino, WBO, WBA and IBF light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev will defend his belts against Nadjib Mohammedi of France in the headline bout. Kovalev is one of the hottest fighters in the sport, as he's undefeated with 24 knockouts in 28 career fights.
He's also knocked out 10 of his last 11, with the lone decision a shutout of the legendary Bernard Hopkins.
It's unlikely anybody outside of Mohammedi's immediate family is excited to see him challenge Kovalev.
But Kovalev has become the kind of show that boxing fans tune in to watch. He should have a major crowd this weekend, even facing an unexciting challenger. HBO starts its World Championship Boxing doubleheader at 10 p.m. ET.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per BoxRec | Sergey Kovalev | Nadjib Mohammedi |
| Record: | 27-0-1, 24 KOs | 37-3, 23 KOs |
| Height: | 6'0" | 5'11.5" |
| Reach: | 72 ½" | 70 ½" |
| Weight: | 175 lbs | 175 lbs |
| Age: | 32 | 30 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Fort Lauderdale, Florida | Gardanne, France |
| Rounds: | 92 | 227 |
Sergey Kovalev is a native of Russia but has found a comfortable new home for himself in Florida, where he's launched a widely successful career.
He has the reach advantage and a significant power advantage. But Mohammedi must be able to crack a bit too to have recorded 23 career KOs.
Main Storylines
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Sergey Kovalev is one of the hottest stars in boxing. He's 27-0-1 for his career with 24 KOs. He's knocked out 10 of his last 11, with the lone unanimous decision a shutout of the legendary Bernard Hopkins.
Kovalev exploded onto the scene in 2013, when he went 4-0 with four KOs and captured the WBO light heavyweight belt from Nathan Cleverly. In 2014, he beat Hopkins to unify the WBO title with the IBF and WBA straps.
So far in 2015, he has failed to negotiate the deal that would give him the chance to become a true undisputed champion—a unification bout with WBC and lineal champion Adonis Stevenson.
He did travel to Stevenson's hometown of Montreal earlier this year to knock out top contender Jean Pascal.
Nadjib Mohammedi is a less-than-ideal opponent for Kovalev. But he is a 10-year professional with only three losses in 40 professional fights. So the Frenchman is hardly a chump.
But he's done little to justify this kind of opportunity. RingTV.com has him ranked No. 9 in the division, but it's hard to see how he actually deserves to rank above fighters such as Cleverly, Tony Bellew, Edwin Rodriguez and even Sullivan Barrera.
Strengths
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Sergey Kovalev is a monster puncher. Every one he throws is dangerous. He knocked out Cedric Agnew with a jab to the body.
But what makes him truly special is his patient and cerebral approach to unleashing destruction. He's a smart, tactical boxer who is willing to wait and take what an opponent offers him rather than always impose his will with brute force.
Nadjib Mohammedi has been boxing as a professional for 10 years, and he's been in 40 fights, winning 37 of them. He's fought around the world, and he's been in big-time fights.
He's athletic, with quick hands, and he can bang enough to win a fight by stoppage.
Weaknesses
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Sergey Kovalev is like so many great offensive fighters in that he's open to get hit. Jean Pascal hit him 68 times for a 34 percent average, per HBO Boxing.
Kovalev gets away with it because he overwhelms his opponents in return. For example, he blitzed Pascal with 122 punches, many of them well-placed and flush battering rams.
But Kovalev has at times fought in a way that risks putting himself on the bad side of a big punch.
Nadjib Mohammedi has a dangerous habit of fighting with his hands low. Against lower-tier opposition, he's athletic enough to lure his opponent into some dangerous punches.
But Mohammedi is no Roy Jones Jr. He lost a one-sided decision to Nathan Cleverly fighting that way, and Kovalev walked through Cleverly like he was fighting a kid.
Even more dangerous could be Mohammedi's habit of moving straight backward away from punches. Kovalev will feed him decoy punches and then have a crushing shot waiting for him when the Frenchman tries to set his feet.
Sergey Kovalev Will Win This Fight If...
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Sergey Kovalev has fought with one fundamental game plan since beating Daniel Boone by split decision in October 2010. Since that educational experience with the crafty and enigmatic journeyman, Kovalev has marched through everybody he has faced, discounting one technical draw when his opponent was unable to continue after an accidental foul.
Expect Kovalev to come out in the early going and impose his power on Nadjib Mohammedi, rattling the challenger.
At that point, Mohammedi will either fold quickly or else show gameness and attempt to hang on for as long as he can.
Kovalev will then become patient, using the memory of his power in Mohammedi's mind along with steady demonstrations of it throughout each round to keep his opponent's own hands at home.
Mohammedi may land some punches of his own while flurrying desperately in spots, but Kovalev's power should allow him to intimidate and dictate.
Eventually, Kovalev will get a read on Mohammedi and deliver the punch or series of punches that ends the fight.
This is the formula Kovalev has used to knock out and otherwise dominate former world champions. If he is able to do it against a fringe contender like Mohammedi, he'll win.
Nadjib Mohammedi Will Win This Fight If...
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I'll be honest: My first response when I look at the headline of this section is to think, "Well, maybe if Sergey Kovalev is so relaxed on the night of the fight that he falls asleep in the dressing room and doesn't wake up in time."
Then I remembered that his trainer, John David Jackson, or Main Events CEO Kathy Duva, would wake him up in time, so that theory doesn't hold so much water after all.
So instead, Nadjib Mohammedi will need to use his hand speed to get off first and put himself in position to catch the come-forward Kovalev with a big punch. And if he can manage to hurt Kovalev, he needs to press his advantage and catch that lightning while it's still in the jar.
While looking to land his lottery-ticket punch, Mohammedi needs to tighten up his defense. He has to adjust his footwork so that he's setting up angles to counterattack. If he moves straight back, Kovalev will simply follow him with a dangerous punch.
Mohammedi has been training for his last two fights with Abel Sanchez in Big Bear, so he obviously has some people behind him who believe in him. He's training around great fighters in a terrific atmosphere.
So expect Mohammedi to be a better fighter than he was when he was losing to Nathan Cleverly in 2010 or getting knocked out by Dmitry Sukhotsky in 2011.
But to beat Kovalev, he's going to need to be a lot better than he was then and also a little bit lucky.
Prediction
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It'll be surprising if this fight makes it out of Round 5. Nadjib Mohammedi might find away to stick around to the second half of the fight, but I'd definitely set the over/under on six rounds if I were in the business of setting prop bets.
And if I were a bettor, I'd view taking Kovalev inside the first five as juicy odds.
Ultimately, this is a fight we have to accept as fans in order to keep alive the dream of Sergey Kovalev vs. Adonis Stevenson—to unify all the belts and establish a true undisputed light heavyweight champion.
Mohammedi is the No. 1 contender, according to the IBF. I can't see how it maintains that with a straight face, but it does. And if Kovalev is going to hold onto its trinket any longer, he has to pay its sanctioning fee and fight its pretender, or it will feel justified in going off to a boardroom and inventing a new world champion of its own.
I mean, how seriously do we want to take an organization that purports to view Mohammedi as the No. 1 contender to the world title? Not that seriously. Still, it would be nice to have a true champion crowned this year.
Kovalev vs. Stevenson fell apart in negotiations last April. But there's still tremendous demand for the fight, so it should be able to happen.
Kathy Duva talked about the potential of a superfight with Andre Ward last May with FightHype.com. Kovalev has become a huge name at a time when his division offers a number of great options for entertaining fights.
Bonus Prediction: At some point in the next year or two, Kovalev versus his old amateur rival, Artur Beterbiev, will become one of the hottest fights in the sport.
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