Making the Case for Top CFB Teams That Could be No. 1 in the First CFP Rankings
In less than two weeks, for the first time this season, the College Football Playoff will begin its polarizing race to finality.
Indeed, the selection committee will soon get to work, paving the way for a slew of ranking updates before the playoff is crystalized on December 7. For those in search of debate, controversy and good old-fashioned strength-of-schedule discussion, look no further.
The debate will be here soon.
In some respects, the debates have already begun. And suddenly, there is real conversation about the No. 1 overall ranking, a spot Ohio State has commandeered since the start of the season.
But should it? And what team has the strongest case to dethrone the Buckeyes?
Let's explore the resumes on the committee's behalf.
Texas A&M
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The Aggies are unbeaten, which is as good as any place to start. At this point of the year, only a handful of teams can say the same.
Of the wins Texas A&M has accumulated, beating Notre Dame in South Bend is unquestionably the biggest resume boost. While many early victories tend to age poorly, that likely won't be the case here.
At the end of the season, assuming the Irish keep winning against lesser competition, this victory will serve as a resume boost.
While Auburn, Mississippi State, Florida and Arkansas weren't ranked opponents at the time, the outcomes (and wins) were still meaningful and noteworthy. In fact, A&M is currently ranked No. 1 in Strength of Record, according to ESPN.
With wins of 41-40 and 16-10, the Aggies have been victorious in a variety of ways. Offensively, they rank just outside the top 25 in scoring and top 20 in total offense, although quarterback Marcel Reed adds an element of explosiveness few teams can match at the position.
The defense currently ranks outside the top 50 in terms of scoring, which is a surprise considering this is Mike Elko's specialty. While the Aggies had shown improvement on this side of the ball, allowing Arkansas to score 42 points last week was a setback.
It's worth noting the Aggies will play at LSU before the first ranking is released, which could serve as another quality win, especially on the road.
As of now, this is the only unbeaten team in the nation's best conference. That's certainly worth something.
Alabama
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The blemish on the Crimson Tide's schedule is a big one, and there is no getting around it. Let's start with the bad.
In Week 1, Alabama was dominated by Florida State on the road. While this felt like a revival for the Seminoles, that was not the case. FSU has dropped four consecutive games, including an ugly loss against Stanford last week, prompting questions about head coach Mike Norvell's future.
This loss will linger, no matter what Alabama does the rest of the way. The good news? The Crimson Tide have done plenty since.
Alabama has won four consecutive games against ranked teams, winning at Georgia (No. 5) and Missouri (No. 14). It also beat Vanderbilt (No. 16) and Tennessee (No. 11) at home.
In terms of resume depth, there is no comparison if you value ranked wins. The fact that they have stacked up these wins consecutively speak to how this team has played and bounced back. Alabama hasn't just beaten a slew of ranked teams; they have beaten ranked teams that have beaten other ranked teams.
Statistically, Alabama's offense and defense rank outside the top 15. Given the schedule the team has played, though, these stats require context. Quarterback Ty Simpson, currently the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, has accounted for 20 touchdowns and thrown just one interception.
His wideouts are superb, the offensive line has the chance to be excellent, and the team seems to genuinely thrive under the gun. Defensively, it might not be the same elite group Nick Saban produced, but the unit has allowed more than 21 points just once.
The resume is truly spectacular, minus one very obvious moment.
Indiana
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With a massive new contract in hand, Curt Cignetti is presently on top of the CFB universe.
Indiana is currently No. 2 in the AP Poll, sitting behind just one team. In terms of overall resume, however, the Hoosiers have a strong case to be ranked a spot higher.
Statistically speaking, no team is more balanced. Indiana is currently ranked No. 4 in scoring on offense and defense, which is a remarkable feat.
Only two teams have scored more touchdowns than the Hoosiers' offense, and only two teams have allowed fewer touchdowns than their defense.
Sure, the first three games were cupcakes, but the Hoosiers have stepped up in class significantly since then. The marquee win was unquestionably a double-digit victory on the road against Oregon, which ranked No. 3 at the time. This is the best win any team has delivered all season to date.
Cignetti's team also beat Illinois, ranked No. 9 at the time, by the final score of 63-10. One could also argue no team has delivered a more dominant, convincing victory. Throw in a hard-fought win at Iowa, a challenging environment to say the least, and the resume has really taken shape.
Want star power? This team has that as well. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has accounted for 23 touchdowns and thrown only two interceptions. His favorite target, wideout Elijah Sarratt, has already accounted for nine touchdowns.
This team is deep. The resume, even with a weak-out-of-conference lineup, is robust. There simply aren't many negatives to draw from. Looking forward, Indiana has no ranked teams currently on the schedule.
That's an argument for tomorrow. Today, the Hoosiers make a compelling case.
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Ohio State
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Ohio State won a national championship in January, lost 14 players to the NFL draft, and said farewell to its offensive and defensive coordinators.
The Buckeyes might actually be a better football team.
In fact, they have been so dominant thus far that we often forget about them amid the chaos. Let's try to stop that.
New defensive coordinator Matt Patricia hasn't just filled a hole. He's been a brilliant addition to the program, and the numbers are simply jarring. Ohio State is No. 1 in scoring, allowing less than six points per game.
It has allowed just four touchdowns all season, which is staggering. Pretty much every metric one values on the defensive side, this team excels in.
Offensively, Ryan Day's team has the best player in college football in wideout Jeremiah Smith. Fellow future first-round pick, wideout Carnell Tate, has been superb as well.
However, the key is quarterback Julian Sayin. The sophomore has accounted for 19 touchdowns and thrown just three interceptions in his first year as starter. As the season has progressed, the playbook has opened up. He continues to grow more comfortable and look the part.
If there is a knock, it's the overall resume. Granted, Ohio State beat Texas in a game that felt larger than life in the moment. The Longhorns entered the season as the nation's preseason No. 1, and they haven't looked quite right.
The Buckeyes won games at Illinois and Washington, which are strong victories that should age well. Both wins were decided by double digits.
Michigan is still on the schedule, and the game will be played on the road. Outside of that, Ohio State plays Penn State, Purdue, UCLA and Rutgers. It's hard to find a loss. It's also hard to find any additional ranked opponents.
The Verdict
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When the first rankings appear in less than two weeks, barring something unforeseen, the selection committee will do the easy thing.
It will pencil Ohio State in at the No. 1 seed, and it won't think twice about it.
The Buckeyes defense has been dominant, the quarterback has been outstanding, and they won a national championship a season ago. This is the safe decision.
Texas A&M just doesn't have the resume juice—at least not yet. Alabama's loss to Florida State will serve as a boat anchor, even with so many sensational wins since. And Indiana, which has the most compelling case without a doubt, is hurt by the fact that it is not a blue-blood football program.
In a one-game setting, Ohio State isn't a sure thing. If the Buckeyes and Hoosiers meet in the Big Ten Championship Game unbeaten, the No. 1 seed will be up for grabs. Alabama, meanwhile, looks like a program no team—including Ohio State—wants to deal with after a stunning loss to start.
The beauty of the expanded playoff is that seeding will only tell us so much. Results will tell the story, and there are plenty more to come.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
