Ranking the 2015 NBA Free-Agent Signings That Will Have the Biggest Impact
For all of the activity seen during the NBA's 2015 free-agency period, the league's power structure seemingly hasn't changed much.
The rich got richer in a lot of different ways. Millionaire players secured eight- and nine-figure contracts as teams scrambled to spend what they could before the salary-cap-bursting TV money begins to surface in 2016. Most of the existing contenders strengthened that status by retaining key contributors or bringing new ones aboard.
But that's not to say this summer lacked for impact moves. We've brought the 10 biggest ones to light here, focusing on players whose offseason decisions will be felt during the 2015-16 campaign and, in a lot of cases, several years to come.
Impact is hard to quantify, but we examined a few different layers.
Players had to have some mystery surrounding their free-agency ventures. Obviously, elite talents like LeBron James, Marc Gasol, Kawhi Leonard and Draymond Green will play important roles next season. But their signings didn't change much for their respective franchises, since everyone saw them coming long before their pens hit paper.
As for the rankings, we weighed past production, present fits and future potential to find the right slot for each player. These are needle-moving signings, so their on-court importance had to match that label.
With our parameters set, let's see which deals made the biggest dents in the basketball landscape.
10. Monta Ellis, SG, Indiana Pacers
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Contract: Four years, $44 million
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 18.9 points, 4.1 assists, 44.5 field-goal percentage, 16.5 PER
No player better embodies the Indiana Pacers' quest for more offense than prolific scoring guard Monta Ellis.
The Circle City booked consecutive Eastern Conference Finals trips in 2013 and 2014 solely on the strength of its defense. The Pacers had the league's lowest defensive rating each season, anchoring their stone wall with Roy Hibbert in the middle and Paul George and George Hill on the perimeter.
But after watching his team struggle to find reliable offense, Pacers President of Basketball Operations Larry Bird decided it was time for a new approach.
"We'd like to play a little faster tempo," Bird said, via Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star. "And that means we've got to run a little faster, maybe at times play a little smaller. … I would like to score more points, and to do that, you've got to run."
Ellis has his faults, but he's certainly capable of forcing the issue.
As one of the Dallas Mavericks' primary attackers, he led the NBA with points scored off drives during the 2013-14 campaign (589) and ranked eighth overall last season (459). He also produced the third-most points as a pick-and-roll ball-handler in 2014-15 (608).
He gambles more than he should defensively, and he's not much of a three-point threat (career 31.4 percent). But he's comfortable running an offense at high speeds, and his presence will help take some of the scoring burden away from George and Hill.
9. Reggie Jackson, PG, Detroit Pistons
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Contract: Five years, $80 million
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 14.5 points, 6.0 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 17.2 PER
It was obvious explosive point guard Reggie Jackson had a big fan in Detroit Pistons coach and President of Basketball Operations Stan Van Gundy.
The Pistons parted with two rotation players and two future second-round picks to pry Jackson away from the Oklahoma City Thunder in February, a few months before the 25-year-old was slated to hit restricted free agency. It was a risk, but one Van Gundy said he felt comfortable making because he saw Jackson as his long-term point guard, according to Pistons.com's Keith Langlois.
But even with Van Gundy's admiration in mind, Jackson's market was difficult to set.
He's only started 27.9 percent of his 272 career regular-season games, having spent the bulk of his time backing up Russell Westbrook. Jackson is not an established top-10 player at his position, nor a consistent outside shooter (career 29.4 three-point percentage). Even he knows his resume isn't how an $80 million player's typically looks.
"It's a small sample size; I understand people see the small size and all that," Jackson told Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press. "A lot of these players getting deals have been starters their whole career and are hitting game-winning shots and other things like that. In about two or three years I hope everybody says Reggie Jackson is underpaid."
Jackson posted major numbers in the Motor City (20.4 points, 10.4 assists over his final 14 games), so maybe the Pistons snagged a superstar point guard on the rise. But they still have fellow floor general Brandon Jennings on the payroll.
Jackson might be a centerpiece or a trade chip for the Pistons. Either way, this signing should reverberate around the hoops world for a while.
8. Paul Millsap, PF, Atlanta Hawks
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Contract: Three years, $59 million
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 16.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 20.0 PER
Paul Millsap's decision to re-sign with the Atlanta Hawks has already made an impact in several different ways.
Atlanta didn't have enough money available for both Millsap and DeMarre Carroll, the starting forwards on last season's 60-win team. The Hawks had to choose between them, and their call to keep Millsap meant Carroll could take his three-and-D skills to a Toronto Raptors club that badly needed them.
But before Millsap accepted the Hawks' contract, he reportedly mulled a four-year, $80 million offer from the Orlando Magic, sources told ESPN.com's Chris Broussard. Had Millsap taken Orlando's money, the Magic might have decided to let Tobias Harris go instead of bringing him back on a four-year, $64 million deal.
As fun as it is to entertain the what-if scenarios, they aren't the impacts to consider. This is a two-time All-Star coming back to a club that fell one round shy of an NBA Finals berth. It's also a 30-year-old who may need to adjust his approach due to the moving pieces around him.
He's a small-ball 4 by trade, but it's possible he could see a few minutes at the 3 if the Hawks try to play him, Al Horford and Tiago Splitter together. Millsap may also need to embrace more defensive responsibility after Carroll's departure if Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore can't provide enough at the offensive end to log major minutes.
If the Hawks hope to contend for the Eastern Conference crown again, they might need Millsap to deliver the best season of his career.
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7. DeMarre Carroll, SF, Toronto Raptors
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Contract: Four years, $60 million
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 12.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 15.9 PER
Last season, DeMarre Carroll did what every professional athlete hopes to do: break out in a contract year.
His stat sheet featured a slew of personal bests, including scoring, shooting (60.3 true shooting percentage) and efficiency. He further boosted his value during the playoffs, stringing together six consecutive 20-point games, playing the best perimeter defense on the Hawks and fighting through a strained knee injury that initially appeared like something much worse.
Add the ballooning cap to the mix, and all the ingredients were in place for Carroll to cash out, which he clearly did. But perhaps the biggest factor behind his pay raise is that the Toronto Raptors desperately needed a player with his skills.
While they won 49 games last season, they lacked the two-way balance of a full-fledged contender. As potent as their third-ranked offense was, it could not cover for their 23rd-ranked defense. Carroll, who has the physical tools and mental makeup to handle multiple assignments, should help plug some of Toronto's most problematic leaks.
"Carroll...immediately becomes the Raptors' best perimeter defender," wrote Eric Koreen of the National Post. "After watching the parade of opposing guards torch Toronto, Carroll's defense will be essential."
If Carroll can help the Raptors make the tricky leap from good to very good (or maybe even great), his contract will pay for itself. But it remains to be seen how his complementary offense will hold up after moving from a team with the top assist percentage to one that ranked 28th in the category.
6. Greg Monroe, PF/C, Milwaukee Bucks
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Contract: Three years, $50 million
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 15.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 21.2 PER
The Milwaukee Bucks aren't a typical free-agent destination.
They don't have a major market, nor the most appealing climate. They also haven't won a playoff series since 2001.
But the Bucks didn't need business opportunities, nor a rich history to sell to 25-year-old big man Greg Monroe. Their growing collection of young talent—which already produced a playoff berth last season and has a need for consistent offense—was enough to lure him in.
"I feel like this was the best fit for me," Monroe said, via Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "It was purely a basketball decision. Nothing else mattered but basketball to me, and that's why I'm here."
Monroe reportedly fielded max offers from the Bucks, New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers and Portland Trail Blazers, sources told Bleacher Report's Howard Beck. Milwaukee's readiness to win pushed it to the head of the pack for Monroe, who never made a playoff appearance during five seasons with the Pistons.
The Bucks tallied 41 wins and claimed the East's sixth seed last season on the strength of their second-ranked defense. But scoring was a constant struggle, as no one produced more points per game than Michael Carter-Williams' 14.1.
Monroe, who has averaged at least 15.2 points each of the past four seasons, should help scratch that itch. And the Bucks' combination of athleticism and imposing length—Carter-Williams, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker all stand between 6'6" and 6'11"—should mask Monroe's limitations as a rim protector.
5. Tim Duncan, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs
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Contract: Two years, $10.8 million
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 13.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, 22.6 PER
There was never a chance Tim Duncan would throw on a different jersey than the same silver-and-black San Antonio Spurs threads he's worn since 1997. But retirement was a threat to poach the 39-year-old away from the Alamo City.
However, Duncan once again proved why he's the biggest threat to Father Time's unblemished record. The only hit to his per-game numbers of late has been tied to coach Gregg Popovich's minutes management. Stretched out to a per-36-minute scale, Duncan produced 17.3 points, 11.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 2.4 blocks a night last season—his 18th in the league.
In case anyone felt those numbers were a mirage, he nearly hit every one during San Antonio's first-round series with the Los Angeles Clippers. In 35.7 minutes per game, he went for 17.9 points, 11.1 boards, 3.3 assists and 1.4 blocks.
"One can only describe Duncan's repertoire as ageless—a fine-wine-like conglomeration of learned skills and innate talent," wrote Bleacher Report's Stephen Babb. "Time may bring sky-high verticals back down to earth, but it has little impact on basketball basics."
Having Duncan around ensures a continuation of "The Spurs Way" even while the system around him is changing. Kawhi Leonard will continue grabbing more spotlight time, and free-agency import LaMarcus Aldridge could demand the biggest share of offensive touches.
But Duncan remains the leader of a team that looks as fierce as any in the Western Conference. He's a supreme source of stability for an organization that hasn't known anything else during his illustrious career.
4. Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Contract: Five years, $110 million
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 16.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 18.8 PER
Kevin Love always said he envisioned a long-term future with the Cleveland Cavaliers; he just couldn't quiet the speculation that something else might be brewing behind closed doors.
The rumor mill churned for several different reasons.
He was clearly the third wheel in Cleveland's offense behind LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, and some of Love's stats fell to their lowest levels since his rookie and sophomore seasons. One year removed from having the league's fourth-highest scoring average, he was often relegated to spot-up-shooting duties and occasionally kept out of fourth quarters due to his defensive deficiencies.
That the Cavs seemingly didn't skip a beat after losing Love in the first round of their playoff run only fueled the belief that both parties may be better off without one another.
But Love stayed, just like he said he would. And the Cavs, who made a runner-up finish without him, should be ecstatic about what they can do now that he's back in the fold.
"The Cavaliers enter next season ready to put the James/Irving/Love growing pains behind them and take the league by storm," wrote Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver. "Look out."
Remember, those "growing pains" didn't stop Cleveland from winning 53 games. And the star-studded trio was an absolute wrecking ball, outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per 100 possessions during its 1,441 minutes together.
3. Jimmy Butler, SG, Chicago Bulls
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Contract: Five years, $90 million
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 20.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 21.3 PER
All-Star swingman Jimmy Butler couldn't have left the Chicago Bulls even if he wanted to. Not this summer, at least.
As a restricted free agent, any offer sheet he signed could have (and would have) been matched by the Bulls. The only way for him to gain complete control of his future was to play next season for his $4.4 million qualifying offer, then enter the 2016 offseason as an unrestricted free agent. But with the possibilities of injury or regression, it's impossible to know how that market would have received him.
The Bulls seemed guaranteed to keep him, but no one knew for how long. Sources told Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski in June that Butler wanted a short-term offer to decrease the amount of time he'd have to wait before dipping into the league's expanding salary pool.
But when it came time to sign, Butler took the longest, richest deal he could. And the pact gives the Bulls several options on how to proceed.
Chicago could retain its current core and see if new head coach Fred Hoiberg can prove to be the missing piece to its championship puzzle. The Bulls could blow up their roster, shipping out their veteran parts and rebuilding around Butler and sophomore-to-be Nikola Mirotic.
If Butler continues last season's All-Star ascent, a healthy Bulls team with a more potent offense could potentially be Cleveland's biggest roadblock in the East. If Chicago reaches for the reset button, the conference will lose one of its few on-paper contenders, and a handful of proven commodities will be auctioned off to the highest bidder.
How's that for impact?
2. DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers
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Contract: Four years, $88 million
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 11.5 points, 15.0 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 21.0 PER
Can you imagine the Los Angeles Clippers without human pogo stick DeAndre Jordan manning the middle? Who would discourage dribble penetration at the defensive end? Could Blake Griffin single-handedly keep the "Lob City" moniker alive?
Those questions—and many more—haunted Clippers fans for a few fateful days during free-agency's moratorium period. Jordan's ticket out of Tinseltown and to the Dallas Mavericks was reportedly punched (via Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears), but the center had second thoughts and ultimately returned to the team that drafted him 35th overall in 2008.
Jordan's exit would have closed the Clippers' championship window and boarded it up. They didn't have cap space to sign a serviceable replacement, and any trade to acquire one would have forced them to sacrifice what little depth they had.
But with Jordan back in the mix and a few new faces around him, the Clippers should come out of this potentially disastrous summer stronger than they entered it.
"The Clippers can credibly believe they've upgraded this offseason by adding [Paul] Pierce and Lance Stephenson while losing only Matt Barnes from the six players Doc Rivers relied on most heavily last season," wrote ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton.
Since that article was written, the Clippers have also brought in Josh Smith on a minimum deal and re-signed scoring guard Austin Rivers. This team has improved on paper, and that's a scary thought since it had last season's second-best point differential.
While Butler's return holds massive implications for the Bulls, Jordan's will be felt by every team in the title race. But one superstar who swapped jerseys figures to leave a bigger imprint on the box score and the championship hunt than any player on this list.
1. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, San Antonio Spurs
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Contract: Four years, $80 million
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 35.2 three-point percentage, 22.8 PER
Of the 24 players who suited up in last season's All-Star Game, only one changed locales this summer: LaMarcus Aldridge. And by taking his talents to South Texas, he proved the Spurs can dominate July the same way they've been rolling from October to June for years.
"This should basically go without saying, but Aldridge is a game-changing presence," wrote Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal. "The Spurs aren't going anywhere after landing yet another consistent All-Star who can contribute on both ends of the floor."
Aldridge is a statistical monster.
He's had at least 21 points and eight rebounds during each of the last five seasons. He's the only player who can make that claim and one of just four with multiple such campaigns over that stretch (DeMarcus Cousins, Blake Griffin and Kevin Love each had two).
Aldridge should fit like a glove with the Spurs. He can thrive in the same offensive zones where Duncan has been residing for nearly the past two decades, piling up points from the low post and tickling the twine from mid-range. Aldridge even experimented with a three-point shot last season, burying 37 after hitting only 24 his first eight years combined.
Aldridge isn't an elite defender by any stretch, but the Spurs don't need him to be. They already have reigning Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard on the perimeter, versatile defender Danny Green on the other side and 15-time All-Defensive team selection Tim Duncan locking down the paint.
The Spurs' newest star should be a lot like their returning ones: productive, successful and omnipresent in the league-wide pursuit of championship bliss.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Contract numbers used courtesy of ESPN.com's free-agent tracker.
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