Predicting NBA Contracts That Will Look Terrible in 2 Years
Rev up your time machines and set the dials to the 2027 NBA offseason. We're heading into the future.
Our mission, unfortunately, is not the most pleasant one. We're trying to identify which players will be on the least team-friendly contracts entering the 2027-28 campaign.
Given the brevity of most deals these days, this will prove to be a challenge. Only so many of the usual worst-contract nominees are up for consideration. Most will either wrap up their current agreements or be entering the final year of their deals, and expiring pacts get no shine around these parts. Selections will be ranked based on prospective trade value and whether each player will still be delivering enough production to warrant their price tag.
And away we go.
5. Jakob Poeltl, Toronto Raptors
1 of 5
2027-28 Salary: $27.3 million
Age on Opening Night: 32
Remaining Contract Value: 3 years, $84.5 million
Average Percentage of Salary Cap: 15.37
Additional Notes: $5 million guaranteed in 2029-30; beginning in 2026-27, an additional $5 million will be guaranteed in each year that he plays at least 1,400 minutes.
The extension Jakob Poeltl signed this past summer does not kick in until the 2027-28 season—further reiterating just how unnecessary it was for the Toronto Raptors to give him one.
Make no bones about it, the seven-footer is a starting-quality center whose game should age well. He is not dependent on bonkers athleticism, and high-IQ screen-setting and passing can endure the rigors of time.
Still, his game is not scalable enough to fit every iteration of the Raptors or another squad. He has touch outside the restricted area but not nearly enough to be considered a spacer. We have already seen fissures in his rim protection.
The 2027-28 campaign will be Poeltl's age-32 season. Absent a dominant defensive skill or the ability to stretch the floor, his impact will remain very context-driven. Someone on the books for around 15 percent of the salary cap through their mid-30s needs to provide more functional flexibility.
4. Patrick Williams, Chicago Bulls
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2027-28 Salary: $18 million
Age on Opening Night: 26
Remaining Contract Value: 2 years, $36 million
Average Percentage of Salary Cap: 9.18
Additional Notes: 2028-29 player option
Patrick Williams' deal just keeps going and going, doesn't it?
Clocking in under 10 percent of the salary cap seems manageable for a rotation combo forward. This presumes Williams is, in fact, a rotation combo forward. While he's young enough to keep getting better, he's shown few signs of being a serviceable offensive weapon.
Ultra-low volume offsets the 39.2 percent clip he's shooting from deep. Since entering the NBA, he has never ranked higher than the 22nd percentile of BBall Index's O-LEBRON metric. His usage rate, meanwhile, has topped out inside the 17th percentile.
This deal is going to age like Zeke Nnaji's contract with the Denver Nuggets. The price is low enough it won't seem detrimental, but ebbing playing time and the inability to trade Williams without attaching assets will speak for itself.
3. De'Aaron Fox, San Antonio Spurs
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2027-28 Salary: $53.6 million
Age on Opening Night: 29
Remaining Contract Value: 3 years, $172.8 million
Average Percentage of Salary Cap: 31.52
Additional Notes: 2028-29 player option
Something about quick-burst point guards rounding into their 30s sets off alarm bells. De'Aaron Fox has more craft than someone relying purely on blow-by speed, but his tempo and rim pressure are cruxes of his appeal—not to mention foul-drawing ability.
People were concerned that the San Antonio Spurs overpaid him the minute news of his four-year, $223.7 million extension broke. That angst will not subside as he ages.
Playing alongside the mother of all safety nets in Victor Wembanyama could help. So, too, could the development of Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle, or San Antonio's acquisition of another star. Fox shouldn't need to be as much of a perma-lifeline with the Spurs as he was with the Sacramento Kings.
It remains to be seen whether this is actually a good thing. Fox's game may not be hard-wired to scale down. His spot-up jumper has never popped for more than one season at a time, and he's never placed higher than the 9th percentile in the time spent away from the ball, per BBall Index.
2. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
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2027-28 Salary: $62.8 million
Age on Opening Night: 29
Remaining Contract Value: 3 years, $201.3 million
Average Percentage of Salary Cap: 35.07
Additional Notes: 2028-29 player option
Jayson Tatum was making cameos in forward-looking contract exercises before he suffered an Achilles tear in his right leg. He is an obligatory inclusion now.
Supermax deals are inherently unfriendly in the Era of Aprons. Devoting what can eventually amount to more than 35 percent of the salary cap to a single player torpedoes your margin for error elsewhere.
Bankrolling these deals for anything short of a top-10 star will come to be seen as irresponsible—if it's not already. The Luka Dončić trade remains an anomaly, but it's also a harbinger of shifting rationale.
Just a few months ago, Tatum had the outlook of someone who didn't have to be here. At the very least, he didn't need to be this high. The calculus must change now that he'll be entering his 30s and have an Achilles injury on his medical dossier.
1. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
5 of 5
2027-28 Salary: $62.5 million
Age on Opening Night: 33
Remaining Contract Value: 2 years, $129.7 million
Average Percentage of Salary Cap: 36.42
Additional Notes: 2028-29 player option
Joel Embiid is a staple in present-day looks at the league's least team-friendly deals. He is not leaving that discussion anytime soon.
Two total years isn't a long time, but the price point remains exorbitant for someone who's tracking toward eternal boom-or-bust status.
Back-to-backs are seemingly off the table for him already. We have never seen him close to 100 percent for the playoffs. We can't even be certain he'll be good to go for training camp in 2025. Who's to say what the bar will be and how low it might fall two years from now.
A cleaner bill of health doesn't preclude Embiid from appearing here, either. He will turn 35 before the end of this contract. Massive human beings who play the game's most physical position and have injuries galore in the rear view are nothing if not at risk of aging poorly.
Dan Favale is a National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
