Predicting the Worst-Value NBA Contracts in 2 Years
Almost any NBA decision involves risk, especially in contract negotiations. Finding the right price to pay a player is often a contentious battle between their agent and the team. If a deal isn't struck, the franchise risks alienating their star or losing a key rotation player to free agency.
The result can be several questionable contracts. Since the oldest players can earn the most money—and age tends to take its toll—many of the roughest contracts are to big-name veterans who may no longer be at their peak.
The following is a list of predictions for the worst-value NBA contracts in two years (the start of the 2026-27 season).
Honorable Mention: Rookie-Scale Contracts
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On the other end of the spectrum, teams can enter into long-term rookie-scale extensions after a first-round pick's third year. If not, they can re-sign the player after their fourth year, like Tyrese Maxey with the Philadelphia 76ers.
These deals are often priced on a projection of what the player will be, not what they have already accomplished. Initially, the max deal for Cade Cunningham looks promising, with the Detroit Pistons finally playing winning basketball and his first All-Star nod.
However, players often fall short. The following is a list of players with much still to accomplish (without picking on who will under or over-achieve) on contracts with at least three seasons left as of 2026-27:
The players above all range from almost 25 to just over 28 years old. Ja Morant (Grizzlies), Darius Garland (Cavaliers) and Jalen Green (Rockets) were left off the list since their contracts continue for two years as of 2026-27, although Green can opt out before the final season.
No. 10: Devin Booker
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2026-27 salary: $57.1 million
Phoenix Suns
Age on opening night: 30
Balance: $118.1 million over two years
Former All-Star
Maybe Booker shouldn't be blamed for the Suns' struggles. He's still averaging 26 points and 6.7 assists per game. While he wasn't named an All-Star, the team isn't great, and he has dipped to 45.1 percent from the field and 33.8 percent from three-point range. Yet, Booker still remains a top shooting guard.
Still, he's expensive annually and will be 30 in 2026. Others may put up similar (or worse) numbers at about the same price, but his age and Phoenix's overall situation place him on the list.
No. 9: Anthony Davis
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2026-27 salary: $58.5 million
Dallas Mavericks
Age on opening night: 33.6
Balance: $121.2 million over two years (player option on final season)
All-Star
Davis and Booker are almost interchangeable. Booker is younger and more durable, but Davis has a more significant impact on the defensive side, along with his ability to score.
The Mavericks moved on from Luka Dončić (who will still be under 27 when 2026-27 starts) for Davis, but they added a much older player on one of the league's more expensive contracts. Davis, currently out with an adductor injury, may improve over time, but most players get hurt more—not less—as they age.
No. 8: Paul George
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2026-27 salary: $54.1 million
Philadelphia 76ers
Age on opening night: 36.5
Balance: $110.7 million over two years (player option on final season)
Former All-Star
George has not been the player the 76ers thought they were adding this past offseason. In the best case, he's not fully healthy and will be better in future seasons. Worst, George was outright a mistake.
He's not at the top of the list because, as of the 2026-27 season, he will only have two years left, and players' contracts can be used as currency in trade once they are in their final year.
No. 7: Lauri Markkanen
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2026-27 salary: $46.1 million
Utah Jazz
Age on opening night: 29.4
Balance: $149.5 million over three years
Former All-Star
The Jazz renegotiated Markkanen's contract this past summer with a rich extension. The first three-year entry on the list (as of 2026-27), Markkanen will already be pushing 30. How does that fit with Utah's rebuilding timeline?
Can the team trade into or develop enough talent to build around Markkanen? Did they give him the contract to flip him in trade this (or next) offseason? Whoever takes him on will get a talented scoring big who isn't much of a rim protector—and the contract is not cheap.
No. 6: Jamal Murray
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2026-27 salary: $50.1 million
Denver Nuggets
Age on opening night: 29.7
Balance: $161.5 million over three years
No All-Star appearances
The Nikola Jokić/Murray combination was proven with the 2022-23 championship, but Jokić is arguably the best player in the world. Did the Nuggets overinvest in Murray, limiting their ability to properly staff the team around Jokić?
Murray lost a full season (2021-22) to a knee injury. He wasn't nearly the same player for Team Canada this summer as he is for Denver. His contract may hold up well over time.
No. 5: Bam Adebayo
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2026-27 salary: $51.0 million
Miami Heat
Age on opening night: 29.3
Balance: $165.3 million over three years (player option on final season)
Former All-Star
The Heat have gradually cooled from a championship contender (2020, 2023) to an under-.500 team trying to avoid the play-in tournament. The Jimmy Butler saga was ugly, but it's over and now Miami needs to reset and build for the future.
Is it viable to build around Adebayo given his salary? His production has also dipped this year to 16.7 points a game on 47.1 percent shooting from the field. That's down from last year's 19.3 and 52.1, respectively. Can Miami count on him improving over the next several years as he nears 30?
No. 4: Jaylen Brown
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2026-27 salary: $57.1 million
Boston Celtics
Age on opening night: 30.0
Balance: $183 million over three years
All-Star
The sheer size of Brown's contract puts him high on the list. The Celtics are the reigning champions, and they could defend that title this postseason.
But at what point did Boston do too much to reward its young stars? With the complex spending limitations of the NBA's 2023 collective bargaining agreement, will Brown's contract become an albatross when the bill comes due?
No. 3: OG Anunoby
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2026-27 salary: $42.5 million
New York Knicks
Age on opening night: 29.3
Balance: $136.3 million over three years (player option on final season)
No All-Star appearances
Despite his age, the Toronto Raptors weren't willing to reinvest in Anunoby, possibly because they were concerned about his durability. The Knicks sent RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley to Toronto for Anunoby (among others, including Precious Achiuwa) and then gave the defensive-minded forward a very healthy new contract.
Unfortunately, he wasn't consistently healthy during the last playoff run and has been in and out of the lineup this season. He seems to be breaking down physically ahead of schedule, and a significant amount of money is still due.
No. 2: Jayson Tatum
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2026-27 salary: $58.5 million
Boston Celtics
Age on opening night: 28.6
Balance: $259.8 million over four years (player option on final season)
All-Star starter
Like Jaylen Brown, Tatum has been well compensated for his starring role. He's younger than Brown and was respected enough for his play this season to be selected a starter for the All-Star Game in San Francisco.
Tatum's contract is so massive that he has to be nearly at the top of the list. The salary the Celtics will pay Tatum is significantly higher than just about anyone else in the NBA. Can Tatum conceivably live up to it, especially with the league's new rules in mind?
He's a talented player and one of the league's top young stars, but that contract may not look great as veterans like Jrue Holiday and Al Horford age out and the team needs to restock for future runs.
No. 1: Joel Embiid
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2026-27 salary: $59.5 million
Philadelphia 76ers
Age on opening night: 32.6
Balance: $192.9 million over three years (player option on final season)
Former All-Star
While Embiid's contract is shorter and not as large as Tatum's, at least the Celtics wing is helping to keep his team in the championship conversation. Embiid has struggled to stay healthy throughout most of his career, and that doesn't seem to be improving.
Even when he plays, he hasn't shown the ability to push his team over the top into a true contender. After paying Paul George, Tyrese Maxey and Embiid, the Sixers have gone from a hopeful team with significant flexibility to a potential lottery team with hampered flexibility.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X @EricPincus and Bluesky.
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