Biggest Wild-Card Teams in 2025 College Football Season
For good reason, the majority of conversations around the 2025 college football season tend to focus on the nation's top projected teams.
But who doesn't love a wild card?
These are the programs that probably won't contend for a national championship yet appear to have the talent and/or schedule luck to make a charge at the College Football Playoff. Or, they've commanded a fair bit of respect in the offseason but haven't been reliable in recent years.
While the choices are subjective—your definition of a wild card may differ—these schools are in the AP Top 25 but not generally viewed as an elite contender.
Illinois Fighting Illini
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In theory, we're going to know about Illinois rather quickly.
The opening seven-week stretch includes games at Duke and Indiana, plus home matchups with USC and Ohio State. It's plausible Illinois is 4-3, for example, and basically whiffed on its chances for a marquee win.
On the other hand, perhaps the Illini are 6-1 entering an idle weekend. The remaining slate—at Washington, Rutgers, idle, Maryland, at Wisconsin and home to Northwestern—is not exactly a gauntlet.
Should you expect a run at a Big Ten title? Probably not.
Nevertheless, a nine-win Illinois squad is going to have an argument for a trip to the College Football Playoff. And a 10-win team is likely in.
Miami Hurricanes
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Something always goes wrong.
Ask a veteran Miami fan—preferably a jaded one—and they'll rattle off the disasters. That stunning loss at Pitt in 2017, blowing up against North Carolina in 2020, the losses to Georgia Tech in 2023 and 2024. And on and on.
Well, my friends, we might be ready to lie again. Clemson is the only ACC program with definitively more talent than the Hurricanes.
The blend of a tremendous offensive line and superb backfield is an ideal situation for Carson Beck, as long as Miami's new-look receiving corps can produce. The transfer-infused secondary, on paper, looks much better. The schedule isn't easy, but most marquee games—Notre Dame, Florida, Louisville—are at home.
Once again, the 'Canes are set up for success.
However, we've watched this movie a few too many times lately to be truly confident in Miami coming through. But, hey, maybe this is the year.
Michigan Wolverines
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Michigan is an exasperating prediction.
How do you balance the reality of the 2024 season—a year in which the Wolverines were objectively awful at QB yet still upended Ohio State and Alabama—with the outlook of a 2025 campaign with a retooled roster and a friendly schedule?
True freshman Bryce Underwood, assuming he starts, has an exciting future. Will he encounter the normal growing pains of a young QB or skip them? Will an unproven group of receivers hold him back?
But if the defense is outstanding, will it even matter?
Other than traveling to Oklahoma in Week 2 and ending the season at home to Ohio State, the Wolverines' toughest games are probably at Nebraska and USC. Which, in the grand scheme of the Big Ten, is very manageable.
Although I'm hesitant to believe in this roster on its own, the rest of the context shapes up nicely for U-M.
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Ole Miss Rebels
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Ole Miss has flirted with genuine contention lately. In the last four seasons, the Rebels have averaged 9.3 regular-season wins. They would have made the CFP in 2021 and 2023 if the expanded format had existed.
Last season, three one-score losses kept Ole Miss on the bitter edge of the final CFP rankings. But, again, the Rebels were in the hunt at least.
Can they finally take the leap in 2025?
The slate is relatively kind, considering the opening half of the year features a handful of days in Oxford. Beyond hosting LSU, the toughest game is either at Kentucky or home to Arkansas, Tulane or Washington State. As schedules go for SEC teams, there are much worse.
Yes, the final stretch is no cakewalk with trips to Georgia and Oklahoma in consecutive weeks and home games against South Carolina and Florida. Even a 6-0 or 5-1 start can devolve into a nasty 8-4 or 7-5 finish.
Ole Miss' path to contention is evident, though. Split the late games, avoid a bad loss and the Rebels will remain in the national picture.
Tennessee Volunteers
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After finishing last season ranked fifth nationally in yards allowed per play, Tennessee brings back a healthy chunk of the defense.
Good.
The offense has to replace quarterback Nico Iamaleava and most of the offensive line, along with All-American running back Dylan Sampson and its top-three receivers from the 2024 roster.
Less good. Still not a nightmare?
Iamaleava was a functional QB, not a game-changer. The line's shaky pass-blocking didn't help matters, so a retooled unit might be improved. DeSean Bishop ran well as Sampson's backup, too. The voids created are not impossible to fill.
Throw in a schedule that is challenging but spaced out well, and Tennessee may be lingering around the back end of the CFP race.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
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Part of this discussion, to be blunt, is whether Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton is able to stay healthy in 2025.
The 23-year-old has played through shoulder issues for much of the last two seasons. This has been the reality for the Red Raiders lately.
Texas Tech, nonetheless, has an intriguing outlook.
After a productive dive into the transfer portal, the Red Raiders have a deep receiving corps and a talented defense. Getting the pieces to mesh is always the difficult work, and traveling to each of Utah, Arizona State and Kansas State presents a real challenge for Texas Tech.
However, the best-case scenario with a healthy Morton and improved defense is a CFP-worthy year in Lubbock.
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