College Football's Toughest Question: Who Will Finish Last in the SEC West?

HOOVER, Ala. — If you’re a serious fan of college football, you probably saw a sign at some point last season reading: “Sharks have a week dedicated to” followed by their favorite team.

If it was from the West Division in the Southeastern Conference, it likely drew some laughter. Put simply, the regular season was nothing short of a vicious survival test, and this time around could be even more brutal.

It’s tougher to predict, and if picking the team at the top wasn’t hard enough, trying to figure out which one will finish last is even more difficult.

Seriously. Just take a look at the list of coaches and try to come up with who will be at the bottom of the standings next spring. There’s no new addition, as everyone’s been at their present position for at least two years, and no major rebuilding project for the other teams to feast upon.

Last season, all seven teams played in a bowl game. This year we might see them all ranked...at the same time. 

"In my opinion, the West is the toughest conference in football, I don't think it's even close," Auburn coach Gus Malzahn said. "I mean, it's a man's league. There's no off weeks. Everybody asks about the SEC and all that, and the thing that really stands out to me is the grind. If you're not in it, you don't understand it."

Name	School	Hired	2013-14 record	2013-14 SEC record
Les Miles	LSU	2005	18-8	9-7
Nick Saban	Alabama	2007	23-4	14-2
Dan Mullen	Miss. St.	2009	17-9	9-7
Hugh Freeze	Ole Miss	2012	17-9	8-8
Kevin Sumlin	Texas A&M	2012	17-9	7-9
Bret Bielema	Arkansas	2013	10-15	2-14
Gus Malzahn	Auburn	2013	20-7	11-5

In 2014, we didn’t have this problem. Coming off a winless season in SEC play, Arkansas was the clear choice for the cellar, although the Razorbacks were on the rise.

Sure enough, they won two league games and played numerous rivals tough, including an overtime loss to No. 6 Texas A&M, the 14-13 defeat to eventual SEC champion Alabama and a 17-10 loss at No. 1 Mississippi State. Because Arkansas subsequently beat No. 17 LSU and No. 8 Ole Miss down the stretch, every team in the West finished above .500 overall.

"I think it's ridiculous the amount of publicity and excitement that we're getting based off of 7-6," Arkansas coach Bret Bielema said this past week at SEC media days.

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

"I get it because we were 3-9 ... Because of what they've done on the field and in the classroom, there's a lot of excitement and a lot of buzz. I don't want that to go away. I mean, it's absolutely awesome. But we're in the SEC West. We're a 7-6 team looking to improve."

Consequently, few, if any, are predicting another last-place finish. But if not the Razorbacks, then who?

Essentially the one thing that everyone agrees on is that it’s extremely unlikely to be Alabama. Nick Saban’s teams have gone 7-1 in SEC play in each of the last four seasons and only once did that fail to put the Crimson Tide in at least a tie for first in the division. That exception was 2011, when it still went on to win the national championship.

Even though Alabama only has 10 returning starters and for the second straight year will see a new starting quarterback, most prognosticators have the loaded Crimson Tide in their top five or slated to return to the playoffs.   

Otherwise there’s a wide range of opinions regarding the other six contenders after saying “They’re good.” For example, among the preseason publications, Athlon has every West team in its preseason top 25, but Lindy’s doesn't have either Mississippi school ranked.

The Sporting News has every squad in its top 25 except A&M, while Phil Steele has A&M 32nd and Mississippi State 39th.

When it posted its preseason odds to win the SEC, Sportsbook operator CG Technology had every West team between 5-2 (Alabama) and 15-1 (Texas A&M), which was nothing short of remarkable. 

As for national title chances, Bovada has 27 teams listed at 66-1 or better including all SEC West teams. Among them, Mississippi State has the longest odds but only barely behind Arkansas (50-1), Ole Miss (40-1) and Texas A&M (33-1).

One of the more interesting preseason evaluations is the Football Power Index by ESPN Stats and Info, which doesn’t necessarily try to project how each team will finish. It's rather an estimate of a team's overall strength. It’s a three-pronged formula using the prior year's offense, defense and special teams efficiencies; returning starters and head coach information; and recruiting rankings.

Five of its top 11 teams heading into the 2015 season aren’t just from the SEC, but the West—and that doesn’t include Auburn. Specifically, it has, in order, No. 2 Alabama, No. 5 LSU, No. 8 Texas A&M, No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 10 Arkansas. The other two division teams are No. 17 Auburn and No. 31 Mississippi State.

Regardless, every team has questions. Every team needs players to mature and elevate their play. And every team might be considered the one to beat if it instead played in another conference.

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

So when the results of the annual poll to predict the order of finish were announced at SEC media days, Auburn was named the team to beat for the league title, with the West looking like: 1. Alabama, 2. Auburn, 3. LSU, 4. Arkansas, 5. Ole Miss, 6. Texas A&M and a team that was ranked No. 1 for a good part of the 2014 season at the bottom, 7. Mississippi State. 

Maybe Bulldogs coach Dan Mullen was on to something when he half joked that "It's kind of like a tradition" to vote the Bulldogs last, although he'll simply turn around and use it as motivation. 

"I think the SEC West will be as competitive as ever and is still really the best division in all of college football and the most competitive division of all of college football," Mullen said.

"But that's what we love, and those are the challenges we love. As a competitor, that's the league you want to be in every single day, every single week. On Saturdays, you roll out on that field knowing you're playing one of the best teams in the country every single Saturday.

"It's a great thing to be a part of."

Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer. Follow Christopher on Twitter @WritingWalsh.