B/R Staff Predictions For Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley

The UFC heads to Atlanta for a strong Fight Night card featuring former UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley in the main event on Saturday.

Buckley comes into the bout with six straight wins, while Usman looks to climb back to the top of the welterweight rankings.

So who's coming away with the victory?

The B/R Combat Sports team got together to provide their predictions for this one.

Disagree with their takes? Sound off in the comments section of the app.

Too Soon to Count Usman Out

Giuseppe CACACE / AFP

There are a lot of variables at play in this fight, and almost exclusively on Usman's side. 

It really boils down to this: Nobody knows what level the 38-year-old is at right now.

It's been ages since we last saw the welterweight legend fight, and his last clash—a close decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev—was contested on short notice at middleweight in October 2023.

Usman looked great in the matchup, but the circumstances were so unusual that it didn't tell us much about how he'll perform in the division he once ruled this weekend.

Making the situation even murkier is the fact that his next most recent fights, a pair of losses to Leon Edwards, were so long ago that they are hardly relevant anymore.

Buckley, meanwhile, is a known commodity. He's been very active recently, and in his last two fights, he beat the brakes of two former title challengers in Stephen Thompson and Colby Covington.

The win over Covington, which went down last December, seems particularly relevant to Saturday’s main event. 

There are a lot of stylistic similarities between Covington and Usman. Even just a few years ago, a fighter beating Covington the way Buckley did would have given people at lot of confidence that the 31-year-old could also beat Usman.

But that brings us back to original problem: We just don't know where Usman is at right now. 

If the former champ has significantly slowed down, as Covington clearly has, he will probably lose this weekend—possibly even by knockout.

If he is even a shell of his former self—the fighter who beat a prime Covington twice—I don't see how you could pick against him. It’s a hard matchup to feel confident about, but you came here for a prediction, so I'll give you one. 

I'm going to assume Usman is still near top form until it's abundantly clear he's not. Maybe this will be the fight proves his prime is over, but I'll believe it when I see it.

As long as he's still fairly quick and reasonably durable, I see Usman cruising to a decision win with a pinpoint jab and a steady diet of takedowns. 

Prediction: Usman by unanimous decision

- Tom Taylor

Buckley Puts Himself in Title Picture With Win

Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

It finally feels like Buckley is putting it all together.

The No. 7-ranked welterweight fought four times in 2024 and recorded three knockouts and has won his last six fights dating back to 2023.

His brutal beatdown of Colby Covington in December put an exclamation point on his streak and has landed him in this weekend's main event against former UFC welterweight champion Usman.

Buckley has been the more active fighter recently, with Usman's last contest his loss to Khamzat Chimaev late in 2023. That sharpness is going to be the deciding factor in this one.

Buckley has has highlight-reel striking, and his ability to capable on the ground will be enough to keep Usman off balance.

Don't get me wrong, Usman is a smart fighter and his performance even in defeat against Chimaev on short notice showed he can still compete with the best. But we don't know which Usman is showing up in Atlanta. Are we seeing the indomitable former champion or a fighter long past his sell-by date?

Give me Buckley for the win in this one.

Prediction: Buckley by TKO, Rd. 3

- Lucky Ngamwajasat

Until Proved Otherwise, Usman's Level is Higher

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Combat sports are a dangerous enterprise.

For the obvious reasons, of course.

And in particular for fighters of a certain age—38 years old, in this case—who stubbornly refuse to concede when their best days are behind them.

The determining factor in picking this fight is whether it applies to Usman.

While it's true his run atop the welterweights reached a level of dominance not typically seen in the UFC, it's no less true that he's not won a fight since November 2021 and has since been both KO'd and outworked by Leon Edwards in title fights at 170 pounds and smothered by Khamzat Chimaev at middleweight.

But don't mistake that as a Hall of Fame endorsement for Buckley.

Remember he was just 5-4 with three KO losses through nine UFC fights before finding his groove two years ago and rattling off six straight wins, albeit against the likes of opponents many elite fighters, including Usman, had already beaten.

And the victory over Covington, though it reads officially as a finish, came via doctor's stoppage thanks to an eye cut toward the end of a third round in which "Chaos" landed more strikes (36-29) and had nearly two minutes of control time.

Not exactly a "brutal beatdown" to these eyes.

In fact, it's hardly hyperbolic to suggest Covington would have taken over had it gone farther, which means a taller, more versatile Usman, who'd handled Covington in two title fights, might be right in his element come Saturday.

Until proved otherwise, pedigree beats power.

Prediction: Usman by unanimous decision

- Lyle Fitzsimmons