Buying or Selling Top Contenders for College Football Playoff in 2025
In the ever-expanding College Football Playoff, more teams have a legitimate path to winning a national championship.
The challenge for perceived top teams, of course, is meeting that potential.
Last season, Ohio State went from a top preseason team to the national champion. Oregon and Texas surged into the CFP field. Florida State, however, plummeted out of contention in September. Michigan and Texas A&M faltered several times, and others such as Alabama and Ole Miss narrowly missed the bracket.
Yes, these diverging paths are inevitable.
But the fun, especially while sitting here in May twirling over football-loving thumbs, is projecting which schools to believe in reaching the CFP—or not.
The teams included are the 14 programs with +4000 odds or shorter to win the national championship. Odds are from DraftKings.
Tier 4: The SEC's Third Tier
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South Carolina Gamecocks (+5000): Sell
As a general rule, anything worse than 9-3 will be tough to defend. South Carolina hit that record last season, and returning dual-threat quarterback LaNorris Sellers with a talented defense is a great starting point. But in October and November, the Gamecocks play at LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, at Ole Miss, at Texas A&M and Clemson. I'm not sold on South Carolina navigating that gauntlet.
Florida Gators (+4500): Sell
Speaking of gauntlets, this one—well, it'd absolutely floor me. Florida is rightfully excited about DJ Lagway's potential, but there are trips to LSU, Miami, Texas A&M and Ole Miss on the horizon. Plus the annual neutral-site clash with Georgia. Plus-plus Texas, Tennessee and a likely-not-dismal Florida State team. Sorry, no, I'm not projecting UF to avoid four losses.
Texas A&M Aggies (+3500): Sell
Few programs are as tricky to project as Texas A&M, which returns a heavy majority of its production but hasn't earned much benefit of the doubt. Can this version of the Aggies avoid that eye-rolling loss—one like the setback at Auburn last year? Texas A&M falls in "believe it when I see it" territory.
Ole Miss Rebels (+3000): Buy
Surely this is the year, he lied to himself once again. New QB Austin Simmons is the variable, but Ole Miss restocked the roster with transfers and, on paper, is looking at a very manageable slate. As long as the Rebels win their marquee home games—LSU, South Carolina and Florida, in particular—they'll be in the CFP mix.
Tennessee Volunteers (+3000): Sell, but...
After the loud departure of quarterback Nico Iamaleava, do I believe Tennessee can finish 9-3 and reach the playoff? Because of a friendly schedule, yes. Do I view the Vols as a true national contender? Not at all. Nuance!
Tier 3: The Dice Rolls
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Miami Hurricanes (+2800): Buy
Wow, shocker, offseason hype for Miami. But if the Hurricanes have managed to address their void at receiver as a slew of experienced transfers boost the linebacking corps and secondary, what stops the 'Canes from 10-2? Notre Dame, Florida and Louisville all travel to Miami, and Clemson isn't on the slate. Avoiding that disastrous road slip (or two) is paramount.
Michigan Wolverines (+2500): Sell, but...
As with Tennessee, the Wolverines' slate must be discussed. The idea of Bryce Underwood leading Michigan back to glory is storybook stuff, but we've rarely seen a true freshman QB do that. Yet this season, the Wolverines avoid Penn State, Oregon, Illinois, Indiana and Iowa. That is ridiculous schedule luck for Michigan, even if I'm not anticipating an immediate surge.
LSU Tigers (+2000): Buy
Brian Kelly has no excuse to not compete for a championship. He knows it, too. My gut feeling is trying to persuade me oppositely, but my brain says LSU's talent—provided a rebuilt offensive line doesn't need a long time to coalesce—can withstand a predictably tough SEC schedule.
Tier 2: The Popular Picks
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Clemson Tigers (+1600): Buy
Between a high-upside offense and an outstanding defense, this is the best Clemson roster in several years. Even if the Tigers fall to LSU in the opener, their path to double-digit wins seems thin on major obstacles.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+1400): Buy
As long as Notre Dame avoids falling both at Miami and home to Texas A&M right away, the Fighting Irish should be fine. They'll likely have an elite defense to support the transition to a new quarterback—presumably CJ Carr—while the toughest road games are otherwise Arkansas and...maybe Pitt? Good outlook.
Alabama Crimson Tide (+1400): Sell
I have buckled the chinstrap on my technological helmet and await the pleasantries to follow. The difficult part about Alabama is the Nick Saban-earned level of preseason trust. This is Alabama. Of course Bama will win. However, the Tide no longer boast that bulletproof aura following a 9-4 season. The retooled offense may push Alabama to the wrong side of the CFP bubble again. (Or, hey, Bama is still Bama and I look foolish in December. It happens.)
Oregon Ducks (+850): Buy
This is largely a nod to Oregon coach Dan Lanning and his staff, given the changes on offense. And, wouldn't you know it, we're looking at the schedule again. Oregon does not face Ohio State, Michigan or Illinois, and its next-toughest tilt after the trip to Penn State is either home to Indiana or at Iowa.
Tier 1: The Expected Teams
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Penn State Nittany Lions (+750): Buy
Georgia Bulldogs (+650): Buy
Texas Longhorns (+550): Buy
Ohio State Buckeyes (+500): Buy
The short version is I expect this quartet—Ohio State, Texas, Georgia and Penn State—to reach the College Football Playoff.
No sense in burying the lede.
Ohio State and Texas are deservedly the favorites, armed with two mountains of talent on handsomely paid rosters. Georgia is a clear-cut front-runner with seven straight 10-win seasons (excluding the shortened 2020 season).
Lastly, Penn State whipped out the NIL checkbook to take an Ohio State-type approach and keep its veterans together for a championship chase.
It would be especially surprising if any of these four programs missed the CFP.
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