Kentucky Derby 2025 Odds, Dark-Horse Contenders and Predictions After Post Draw

The buzz surrounding the 2025 Kentucky Derby hasn't changed much since Saturday's post draw. Journalism was the favorite before the draw and remains the favorite midway through race week.

This should surprise exactly no one. The Michael McCarthy-trained horse has won four straight races, including the Santa Anita Derby, and drew a favorable position at the No. 8 post.

Nine previous Derby winners have broken from the No. 8 gate.

Of course, Journalism isn't the only horse with a real chance to win on Saturday. Here, we'll examine the latest odds, dive into a few long-shot contenders and make a few predictions.

The 151st Kentucky Derby

Heinz Kluetmeier /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images

When: Saturday, May 3

Where: Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY

Post Time: 6:57 p.m. ET

TV and Live Stream: NBC, USA Network, NBC Sports App and Peacock

Prize Pool: $5 million ($3.1 million to winner)

Post Positions and Updated Odds

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Journalism is washed during the morning training in preparation for the 151th Kentucky Derby

1. Citizen Bull 20-1

2. Neoequos 30-1

3. Final Gambit 30-1

4. Rodriguez 12-1

5. American Promise 30-1

6. Admire Daytona 30-1

7. Luxor Café 15-1

8. Journalism 3-1

9. Burnham Square 12-1

10. Grande 10-1

11. Flying Mohawk 30-1

12. East Avenue 20-1

13. Publisher 20-1

14. Tiztastic 20-1

15. Render Judgment 30-1

16. Coal Battle 30-1

17. Sandman 6-1

18. Sovereignty 5-1

19. Chunk of Gold 30-1

20. Owen Almighty 30-1

21. Baeza - Also Eligible

*Odds via Twinspires.com.

Dark Horses to Watch

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American Promise runs on the track during the morning training in preparation for the 151th Kentucky Derby

Tiztastic

Fans who put a lot of stock into pedigree should keep an eye on Tiztastic. The Steve Asmussen-trained colt is the son of Tiz the Law, who finished second in the 2020 Kentucky Derby and won the 2020 Belmont.

Tiztastic has just three career wins but is coming off a victory in last month's Louisiana Derby.

"The horse is getting good at the right time," Asmussen said, per Jason Frakes of the Louisville Courier Journal. "Had a lot of confidence in him going into the Louisiana Derby because he was simply acting faster than he had previous to that. Proved to be true.”

While Asmussen has never won the Derby, he has trained horses that have won the Preakness and the Belmont. Jockey Joel Rosario rode Orb to a victory at the 2013 Kentucky Derby.

American Promise

American Promise also brings a championship pedigree to Saturday's race. The D. Wayne Lukas-trained horse is the son of Justify, who won the Triple Crown in 2018.

While American Promise has won just two of nine races, experience, and a little momentum should give him a shot.

"This physically imposing son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a dominant win in the Virginia Derby that should give his backers confidence that he’s finally reaching his potential," Patrick Reed of America's Best Racing wrote.

Lukas has trained four Derby winners and trained 2024 Preakness winner Seize the Grey.

Prediction

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Burnham Square runs on the track during the morning training in preparation for the 151th Kentucky Derby

Though not exactly a dark horse, Burnham Square is a longer shot that could give Journalism a real run along the inside.

"He prefers to rally from near the back of the pack and should get plenty of early pace to run at May 3," Reed wrote.

The lone gelding in this year's field, Burnham Square has won three of his last four races, including the Blue Grass Stakes. While trainer Ian Wilkes hasn't trained a winner of any Triple Crown race, jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. has.

Hernandez won both the Kentucky Derby (Mystik Dan) and the Kentucky Oaks (Thorpedo Anna) last year. Expect his experience at Churchill Downs to pay off with a strong finish for Burnham Square.

However, beating the favorite will be a difficult task. Journalism has dominated in prep races and has had few hiccups during the lead-up to Derby Week.

"He got a minor sickness in January but pointed to the San Felipe Stakes, where he beat the highly-touted Barnes before winning the Santa Anita Derby, which was the final big Kentucky Derby prep for the horses on the west coast," assistant trainer Justin Curran said, per Brian Sheerin of Thoroughbred Daily News.

Barring any setbacks between now and post time, we'll be inclined to stick with the favorite in this year's Kentucky Derby.

Projected Finish

1. Journalism
2. Burnham Square
3. Rodriguez